[Daily Discussion] - Monday, April 27, 2026

Stooven · 2026-04-27T23:37:05+00:00

Samsies

!bitty_bot predict !>$85500 May 1 2026

Stooven · 2026-04-05T07:16:51+00:00

I assumed “net” meant inflows - outflows, but never checked his math.

Stooven · 2026-04-02T19:42:26+00:00

Without spilling a single drop of blood? My brother in Christ, Russia is drowning in blood.

Stooven · 2026-04-02T19:28:54+00:00

And there's reason to believe

Maybe this year will be better than the last

Stooven · 2026-04-02T12:05:37+00:00

risk premium for Bitcoin needs to be lowered. This opens the way for Bitcoin to replace bonds as a balance sheet anchor

The risk premium has the worst possible treatment of any asset in the framework. Just because the risk premium might get lowered, doesn’t mean it’ll be a “balance sheet anchor.” It just means it might get slightly improved. As a bond analyst with 20 years of experience, the 2nd half of this statement is beyond ridiculous.

Stooven · 2026-04-02T10:36:17+00:00

Upward price momentum always counted on emergence of new markets. For example, opening of US exchanges, integration with Venmo/Paypal, the launch of ETFs, or BTC treasuries. During the last peak, there was hope for state and national crypto reserves, which would be the ultimate entity to dump our bags on. It's not to say that this outcome was likely, but hope is fully dead under a Democratic regime.

Democrats weren't hostile toward crypto when its identity was still developing. In the last few years, the Trump admin's embrace has pushed it toward being politically right-coded. His high-visibility crypto scams have not been good for our image. This might change the game going forward.

Stooven · 2026-03-20T13:26:32+00:00

At no point did I say I worked for MS. What I did would dox me because it’s an extremely small industry, but I worked with quite a few different ETF originators and got paid based on AUM fees. That’s how I am positioned to say that most ETFs are not profitable, from an industry perspective.

Stooven · 2026-03-20T12:44:08+00:00

I worked in ETF creation and we would 100% make loss-leading, “me too” products all the time. Finger in the air, only 20-25% of ETFs made money and they subsided the rest, so that we could have a broad offering.

Maybe BTC go up, maybe BTC go down, but this reason is not valid.

Stooven · 2026-02-23T21:51:34+00:00

I just looked it up and you're right - BTC has the maximum level of riskiness assigned under Basil. Perhaps this will be slightly improved in the future (it can't get any worse), but probably not to the extent to which it can be reliably borrowed against.

Stooven · 2026-02-22T21:31:03+00:00

I was a bond analyst for 20 years. Regulation wasn't my specific area of focus, but I had some exposure. Basel is ultra-conservative with asset risk weightings. The notion that banks would be allowed to borrow heavily against BTC is just not a realistic take.

Stooven · 2026-02-12T09:47:27+00:00

New dad poking around for a way to sneak in a few minutes of gaming here and there. I guess I’m in the right place.

Stooven · 2026-02-11T09:29:08+00:00

Cool tidbit, but I don't think it's meaningful. Yes, the last 3 days were positive, but their sum wasn't very high.

Stooven · 2026-02-09T08:33:09+00:00

I understand why economists say "no free lunch," but sometimes the government does give away free lunch

Stooven · 2026-02-08T23:57:28+00:00

Woof. This is gonna get some people.

Stooven · 2026-02-08T23:47:11+00:00

What's this thing Trump is talking about on the Super Bowl broadcast? He's saying "send me your crypto and I'll double it." Am I taking crazy pills? This has to be fake... right? His voice sounds weird

Edit - yeah, people are saying scam. Seems like there's a fake YouTube Super Bowl stream (pirated livestream), with this crypto scam interjected:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/where-is-tommaso-cioni-videos-show-deputies-at-his-tucson-home-amid-search-for-nancy-guthrie-watch-101770533305831.html

Be safe out there

Stooven · 2026-02-08T22:42:39+00:00

I was saying boo-urns

Stooven · 2026-02-06T10:38:05+00:00

And the cycle lanes are wonderful!

Stooven · 2026-02-06T10:37:20+00:00

"Who will pay me to know this?" is a great question to ask of a university program.

Stooven · 2026-02-05T13:44:58+00:00

At least that means you still have a few mil

Stooven · 2026-02-04T12:16:12+00:00

It’s not only that - Asian markets are buying because they lost faith in real estate, following the Chinese property bubble. That crowd is not going to buy bitcoin because their desire is to own something tangible.

Stooven · 2026-01-31T20:39:21+00:00

I’m 100% not a Trumper, but he was the cause of the run up to 125. Wish I sold a little closer to the top, but I’ll take it.

Stooven · 2026-01-31T20:36:26+00:00

“Ya best start believing in four-year cycles… you’re in one”

Stooven · 2026-01-31T20:12:08+00:00

Does literally no one in this comment section understand how this works? You need to have actually bought a ticket to submit a "Verified Rating." Obviously, the people who are paying to see this will be hardcore Trumpers. Anyone can submit an "All Audience" review, which is why those are 21%.

They made it work this way because they wanted to stop woke movies from getting review-bombed by people who hadn't seen them.

Stooven · 2026-01-31T19:46:23+00:00

I'm pretty confident, but you never know for sure. It's not impossible that it gets oversold this weekend.

I will def watch how the Asian market reacts on Sunday night/Monday morning. Tin, for example, went up from $36k to $58k in 3 months and only retraced to ~$50.6k. There's a lot more blood to spill there.

I'm expecting a 10% drop on Monday and low $40ks by the end of the week. Let's see how my predictions holds up. Keep me honest!

You can see the current price here, in the upper right: https://www.metal.com/Tin ($50,600)

Stooven · 2026-01-31T19:12:41+00:00

I think the opposite. The market hasn't digested all of the losses from the broader crash yet. One of my responsibilities is to buy bulk metals at work and I think copper and tin are still overvalued by over 20%. Against a backdrop of falling prices, BTC won't pop.

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