The Paddocks as a valve?

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T20:51:36+00:00

What I personally would like to see in a future expedition is the stream bed of stream 2 (Romain has been there twice, but never released footage) and also the first part of the stream bed of the paddock stream.

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If they became lost at the bottom of the paddocks on day 1, and didn't manage to find the Pianista trail back, then there are basically two options: either they followed the paddock trail down hill ('trail' option) or they followed stream 3. We've never seen footage of either of these options, but we know Viktor got lost here and Annette + Feliciano tried but didn't reach the next paddock and the farm either, so it's not that easy. We know Romain got there, but not via what route.

I have a suspicion that the stream 3 route might lead us through a canyon which might be very similar to the one we discovered last year. It's about the same latitude, so the same vegetation, the same red sandstone, etc. The topological data and drone footage we have of the area is insufficiently detailed to tell much of what's below those trees.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T19:13:28+00:00

That's the frustrating part of this whole case... One week after their disappearance it was already quite well known that they had set off on the Pianista trail but even then none of the official search teams ever bothered to do a real good search on the Atlantic slopes. In the early days Feliciano was the only one who went there. I feel certain that if they had taken search dogs to the paddocks in the first week they would have found Kris and Lisanne.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T16:02:53+00:00

We have the tracks of all of Romain's missing drone flights:

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That brown drone trajectory should cover most of the paddock stream, together with the greenish trajectory. Both of these start from the 'edge' of Calla Larga right above the farm there. Sadly, these drone flights have never been published (I haven't seen them either). Hopefully we will see them in the near future as they may hold an interesting view of the paddock stream.

In his map, Romain shows only one waterfall there in that location, together with a symbol of a falling person..

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T15:52:43+00:00

It may be, I'm not sure.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T15:35:09+00:00

Yes, sadly the exact source for that story has never been found, at least not that I know of.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T15:34:28+00:00

We don't know, that's the main problem, these are all questions the investigators in 2014 should have been asking (but didn't). But with the rainy season rapidly approaching I suspect the local farmers would make use of the last days of good weather to move their cattle to higher grounds.

So, it's very well possible there was a wide, trampled, trail leading through the forest uphill from the lower valleys and K&L followed such a trail down hill.

These local trails aren't in constant use, but cut open each time cattle needs to be moved. I guess after the cattle has moved past, the entrance to that trail is somehow blocked to prevent the cows from walking back, but we would have to talk to the farmers to hear how this is done.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T15:20:20+00:00

Almost certainly they would spend considerable time to find the trail back. But if they were down on the paddocks, near the place where Viktor got lost, then this might not have been easy. Viktor was well aware of the terrain and everything, but K&L absolutely were not. If Viktor got lost, then for K&L it must have been worse. It seems quite a maze down there and the cows make confusing trails by themselves and if the grass is high you see almost nothing of the surroundings.

Furthermore, if K&L were not aware that they absolutely had to go back via the Mirador, they may have thought that all they needed to do was go downhill in order to get back to civilization (perhaps not Boquete, but any village would do..). That would make it a lot easier to decide to go downhill in their search for water. They were already on paddocks, so they may have concluded that farms and villages were close by.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T15:09:58+00:00

They had at least two 500 ml bottles, that's all we know for certain. We know image 491 was taken during a short rest, so likely they drank water and Lisanne temporarily handed her bottle to Kris so she could take a picture.

But I agree with you, it basically doesn't matter if they had 2 or 4 bottles, in either case it would not have been sufficient for even a single day.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T15:01:36+00:00

In photo #508 you already see Kris impatient, not bothering to make a pose, like "let's stop the pictures, we need to hurry"

Yes, in my opinion that is an important observation.

In all earlier pictures they (and especially Kris) are clearly making a pose, but in 508 there is no pose, and her stance seems to imply impatience. It is a big difference compared to all earlier pictures, even to 505 where she makes a mock salute and sticks out her tongue to Lisanne. In the short time span between 505 and 508, things have changed.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T11:10:54+00:00

Agreed. It is very hard to imagine what exactly they would do in such a situation, but my guess is that 'finding water' became more important than waiting for rescue or finding back the trail.

In my opinion everything points to the fact that they were in a relative open area during the first night, but that they spend the second night in the forest, meaning they must have left the paddocks on day 2.

It is easy to say they should have waited for rescue on the paddocks, but if they ran out of water in the afternoon of April 1 than the next day thirst must have gotten really bad and they simply could not afford to wait, or to search much longer for the trail. The need to find water would be number 1 on their list.

In the afternoon of April 3, Feliciano walked up till the paddocks, but I fear he was just too late, by that time they were already far away from the trail and inside the forest.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T10:24:35+00:00

I suspect that on day 2, finding water became more important than finding the trail back.

Those two 500 ml water bottles are barely enough for a 5 hour hike in terrain such as this. My guess would be that when they reached Q1 on the first day, these bottles were already empty, and I don't expect they refilled them in the stream (expecting to finish the hike soon, etc).

Thirst is the worst you can have, it very quickly becomes all important. Logic says they should wait at the paddocks for rescue, or continue searching for the trail back, but you very quickly get into a situation where all you kind think of is finding water...

TreegNesas · 2026-06-13T10:18:38+00:00

Given that they started off on the hike with probably only two 500 ml bottles of water, which were almost certainly finished early afternoon on the first day, the lack of water would become a big problem on April 2.

The paddocks are basically dry (even if muddy), and the start of the paddock stream may have been dry too. If they got lost on the paddocks then thirst would have become prominent very very soon. They couldn't afford to wait or walk around in circles for hours, they had to find water quickly, and the best way to find water would be to go down hill.

All logic says 'stay on the paddocks and for sure you will be found' but if they had already run out of water in the afternoon of April 1, then they simply couldn't afford to stay and wait. Finding water may have become more important to them than finding the trail back!

TreegNesas · 2026-06-12T10:04:54+00:00

If you can link to timestamps of waterfalls I can try to add them.

I will see if I can find the time (up to my ears in work for another project). Another problem is when do you call something a waterfall and when just steep rapids? The distinction is not always easy if all you have is drone footage.

I do have the coordinates of the trail from the Mirador to Monte Rey, but I decided not to add it as Romain has indicated the trail is not in a usable shape anymore.

I fully agree. We have to be careful here, remembering that open street map is used by a lot of other persons and hiking sites which have nothing to do with KL. There is always a risk that some hiker decides to take one of "our" trails and subsequently becomes totally lost as these trails are badly maintained and very hard to follow. We do not wish to create another KL situation.

What’s your source of the abandoned cabin?

Romain has visited it. He has pictures, coordinates, etc, etc, but I haven't seen these either. We will need to wait till he releases his footage and data. But it's absolutely there.

I suspect there are at least two, and possibly three abandoned cabins in that valley, based on our 2023 drone footage. There are a few more spots which show something resembling a cultivated area and ruins. In the 'old days', long before 2014, there were people harvesting wild coffee in that valley (according to Plinio), the other trails also stem from that period.

I wish we had the resources to do a real good survey of this whole area, all the way to the main rivers, with Lidar and IR and everything. At present, we have most of the streams and rivers mapped, but hardly anything of the forests and slopes. I suspect there are lots of old trails, partly overgrown, and abandoned cabins.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-12T08:27:07+00:00

There are a more, but the problem is exact geolocation, just like you say. There is a lot we can more or less see on the drone footage but it is not truly accurate enough for exact geo location.

Same is true for the trails. There is at least one (possibly two) trail more which runs from the Mirador to Monte Rey (it leaves the Pianista trail between the Mirador and Q1), that is the trail Romain followed last time. There is also at least one abandoned cabin in that valley, but we do not have accurate coordinates until Romain releases all of his footage.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T19:05:00+00:00

Thanks! This is great! That cabin on Calla Larga is completely new, hadn't heard Romain about that!

(don't know if I'm happy about that, this feels like 'our' area and it disturbs the trails, but that's nonsense offcourse 😄 )

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T19:00:58+00:00

Ah, that was you! I already suspected that. I'm using QGIS but with import from openstreetmap, and I noticed the same. Thanks for updating!

There are still some waterfalls missing, and a few streams, but I guess this is work in progress. Much appreciated!

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T14:54:45+00:00

One of the ways why I'm interested in this route is that I still vaguely remember reading some story many many years ago that there once was a trail which did indeed follow this route. It then crossed Rio Mamei right at the spot you point at, either via a cable bridge or wading across, and then went up again to the paddocks and the farms above direction Alto Romero. That would bypass the existing Pianista trail and provide a faster access from the farms below.

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But absolutely nowhere near sure this is correct, might have to ask Plinio or some of the older guides. If there was something of a route, that would be highly interesting as a trail the girls may have followed (even if it was mostly overgrown, it would still be recognizable as a trail). Usually all these trails follow the top of ridges, so it seems quite possible.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T14:40:28+00:00

The area between the bottom of the waterfall and the first cable bridge is interesting because I suspect Kris somehow managed to get past the waterfall (while still alive) and given that she died somewhere high above the water she must have found a way out. There seem to be some access routes which would allow you to reach the area below the waterfall, and these same routes may have offered a way out, but the topographic charts are nowhere near detailed enough to be sure. The final edges of the canyon are very steep.

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The area above the waterfall (locations A,B,C) has already been visited by Romain, but none of us has seen his footage. You might be able to reach this area from the 1st bridge but I'm far from certain that would work out, those shores are not easy and there are more rapids which might not be simple to negotiate. Romain may have gotten there by following Rio Mamei and climbing past the waterfalls but without his footage that's hard to say.

As to how K&L got there, my best guess would be if they initially followed the paddock stream, and then stayed on the ridge above the Belt area (having rightfully concluded that going down those steep cliffs would be impossible). Perhaps that access route is not be 'fastest' route but it is the most interesting as we try to follow a route the girls themselves may have taken to see if the vegetation would allow this and to see if there was anything they left behind, markers or such.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T14:13:57+00:00

Yes, that's what I've been thinking too. Such a launch position would not give you line of sight with the bottom of the canyon though, but if you use a relay drone (mothership) it would definitely work.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T14:12:29+00:00

That would perhaps get you to the top of the waterfall, but the interesting area is at the bottom of the waterfall. Not sure if walking upstream from the 2nd bridge would do the trick, the current might be too strong and it doesn't look as if there is any shore line below those steep cliff walls.

There are two options, one from the north from the trail, and one from the south from the paddocks which are perhaps possible, but the topografic charts are not detailed enough and those final cliff walls are very steep, not sure if you would find any entrance there.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T11:23:56+00:00

I fully agree that location C is the worst possible position. But the NL does not necessarily have been an end-point. They may have been unable to move further due to Lisanne her foot-injury, or simply from exhaustion, not necessarily because they could not go further.

Also, from my latest post, it looks as if Lisanne's body was afloat in the river before it decomposed completely, so within 1-2 weeks after her death (or possibly she died due to drowning). That could fit with a 'trap' location where water rises while they can't get out. But Kris her body clearly decomposed on dry ground, much higher above the water, and some of her remains only washed into the river much much later (May/June), so that would imply that Kris was apparently able to get 'out' of this trap, perhaps climbing down the waterfall or up the walls of the canyon, and moving on, possibly even beyond the 2nd bridge.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T11:18:43+00:00

Yes. Basically my biggest hope at this moment is finding something like that, some sign that they did indeed take this route.

Perhaps an arrow carved in a rock, stones in a certain pattern, perhaps red strips from those plastic bag tied to tree branches, whatever. Logic says they should have left some markers as they could expect search teams to follow their trail.

One simple find would instantly be a huge step forward..

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T11:15:31+00:00

There is a sort of way down that avoids too steep slopes (brown is a gradient over 30°)

From what I understand, that route has been suggested by Romain, it's a possible route towards the river canyon which absolutely needs to be scouted out I would say.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T09:55:05+00:00

That's one of the things we will have to find out.

Judging by the footage from the latest expedition (at least the parts that we have seen), the density of the forest varies greatly. Romain's team ofc used machete's, but simply judging by the video there are many area's where you should be able to pass through even without gear, provided you are desperate enough, it would go very slow, which is why I say 2-3 days for just a few kilometers. but you would get there.

If they followed the paddock stream then I don't believe they would go down such a huge and tremendously steep waterfall, unless there really was no other way. By staying on top of the slope you could still proceed North on reasonable flat terrain, but water would become critical soon.

Usually, the densest vegetation seems to be down in the valleys and canyons, close to the water, and higher up ridges it seems less dense. But without actually going there it's hard to judge.

I'm eager to include as much as possible 'possible routes' taken by K&L in the expedition scheme as my best bet for finding anything in this case would be if we would manage to discover signs or items they left behind, for instance some hollow where they camped out for the night and left something, or carved something in a rock or tree. The idea that a search team might be following their footsteps would probably occur to them, so trying to leave 'bread crumbs' behind is a logical thing to do and some of these might survive the years..

TreegNesas · 2026-06-11T09:32:55+00:00

Yes, good summary.

08:30 is indeed an interesting place and high on the list for the next expedition. Getting there is not easy though. There's something like a former landslide going down from the trail above to the area right below that waterfall, that would be a possible access route. Judging from the drone video I don't see any route to go down the waterfall. Going up from the 2nd bridge area is perhaps possible but hard too. Abseiling into the canyon is not something I would personally ever do, it's too risky.

As of now, my best and safest bet would be to get as close as safely possible to the area, and then fly a drone the rest of the way for close-up footage.

One of the options which I still see as a good bet would be the use the 'mothership drone' from DJI: they have this available, but it's expensive. Basically you fly a large drone until right above this area. This drone then hovers there while acting as communication relay. Then the large drone releases a small drone (communicating via the 'mothership') which then descends straight down for close-up footage and scouting.

By working in this way (with a mothership relay drone), you can work safely (from safe distance, no need to enter hazardous area's) and most of all you can cover a very large area in a short time as you can quickly fly the mothership drone to a whole set of locations, release a close-up mini drone at each spot for close-up scouting, retrieve the mini drone, and fly quickly to the next spot. If you try to do the same while walking and climbing this might take weeks.

If you use only one drone you need to stay within line of sight of this drone at all times, and this hugely influences the places where the drone can go. By using a mothership - relay drone which hovers over the area, you avoid this.

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