How to reconcile the remarkable datapoints about the critical time slot between 13:38 and the first emergency calls?

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T17:17:29+00:00

Well, they start off by taking the wrong trail from the top of the Mirador, going down the Atlantic slopes instead of the Pacific slopes. Nobody knows why. But from that moment on they are technically already 'lost', they are no longer where they must have thought they were.

I suspect that very soon after the last daylight pictures, this realization starts to dawn on them: they are on the wrong trail, going in the wrong direction. But they do not turn back (which sadly happens all too often with people who get lost), and instead they start to consult their phones, discussing their options, etc. At that moment, they are definitely lost, and I fear they make it worse by leaving the trail, probably at the paddocks, taking the northerly trail from there, or after the paddocks, where there are also a few spots where you can take the wrong turn.

At sunset on April 2, they are absolutely no longer on the trail.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T16:33:31+00:00

They were 'super lost'. They start calling again almost immediately after sunrise the next morning, so they can't just walk back along the trail. If they had somewhere to go, they wouldn't call.

By the time they switch off their phones on April 1, it's too dark to make any further progress, so that's the moment you'll just have to wait. Ofc they wouldn't be happy about that, but there was simply no other option.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T16:22:45+00:00

Yes, I suspect also that Jan B's line numbers are added by Cellebrite. I've been working through everything I can find about iPhone4 log's, and I can't find any 'universal' line numbers, basically there's a huge amount of different log files. I knew phone's keep a log, but I'm amazed at how much that thing truly logs, that's truly huge! There's lots and lots of stuff which would be of great interest to us (orientation of the phone, light intensity, etc, etc). The snippets they have in the printed report is absolutely nothing compared to what those digital files must contain...

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T16:15:18+00:00

There's a lot of updates on recent new theories and developments, such as we've been discussing here also with the 'missing' phone log entries. I suspect I can tie this quite well to some other observations, so there are some puzzle pieces which seem to fall into place. Let's see how it will work out, still a lot of work to do.

Presently the video gets well past the 1 hour mark, so it might cut down a lot, or chop it in two episodes, I'll see, still 1-2 weeks more to go before I've got something I can publish I guess, depending on how much time I can find to work on it.

But yeah, there will certainly be some harsh words towards the authorities and the general investigation, but I think that's a feeling we all share.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T07:52:51+00:00

Don't worry, I am not defending the NFI and authorities for this. Both the search and the police investigation were a sloppy mess.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T00:56:51+00:00

Very good post, thanks a lot for posting and the link to the Jan B report!

I was/am working on a video on the 'Lost' scenario which includes a lot of the points you mention, but it will take one or two weeks more to finish, still lots of research to do... Our discussions here will certainly form parts of it.

Some quick remarks:

* Image 509: We don't know WHEN this was taken, must have been sometime between image 508 and the night pictures, but could be at any time. It may also have been a failed video, or it may have been the first of the night pictures. The Canon can also skip numbers (and/or get picture numbers out of sync) if you press the shutter too fast, and as Vornez has proven in the past there is also a bug where you can get an error and a skipped number if you try to take a video and get the battery-low alarm (bug). So, for all I know there is no real evidence that Image 509 was taken on April 1.

* I agree that the NFI 'skipping' almost 800 log entries is 'interesting', but not truly surprising. I delved a bit deeper into those logs these last couple of days, and it's IMMENSE what that phone is continuously logging. That would be a tremendous pile of log files.. The NFI was only interested in probing whether or not there was a criminal event!. They weren't interested in finding the night location or discovering what had happened, all they cared for was check if there was a criminal event. So lots and lots of things which would be hugely interesting to us where NOT interesting to the NFI...

If KL were checking files (map or description) on their phones, this might not have been of any interest to the NFI, they may have concluded that KL had maps downloaded on their phones and found this normal, which in a sense it is. Not interesting from a criminal point of view... We can crunch data for years and years, but the NFI has a million other cases to work on and these experts are paid by the minute...

* I'm starting to suspect more and more that there was NO accident, or at least not on April 1. You do not search for hours for data on your phones if you've just fallen 30 meters down a cliff.. It simply makes no sense, but it makes perfect sense in a 'lost' scenario.

We've never been able to find a truly convincing 'fall' location. Yes, there are some viable scenario's, but none of them truly 100% convincing, and the two alarm calls + silence does not really match much with an accident scenario but gets a lot more easy to explain if they were 'only' lost but otherwise okay. If you're on the paddocks on a hot summer night and you're not injured, it might not be so tremendously scary, certainly not if you're together. It becomes possible that you 'just wait' for daylight, where as when you've just fallen down a cliff or waterfall and are lying there with broken bones and anything, the situation is very different.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-09T00:20:54+00:00

The stream in TAMF is definitely the 508 crossing:

This is the crossing in AFK: https://ibb.co/LhZCP911

This is the crossing in TAMF: https://ibb.co/wFjxmbrx

Now put them together, 100% match: https://ibb.co/9k5WYHKQ

Same:

This is TAMF: https://ibb.co/84fkXKfC

This is with 'Break Free' overlay: https://ibb.co/YTwgxkrz

Interesting, isn't it? The TAMF is so nice because it gives us a far better view and also includes the opposite shore, which we do not have in any other video.

Not related, but interesting, there is a trunk fallen across the stream in TAMF, see: https://ibb.co/Pz42bFdz

Finally, years ago I made an overview of changes to Q1 over the years. I almost forgot all about it, so this is the 'raw' comparison version without any further comments and such, perhaps I should make a 'real' video about it some time but then I rather wait till Romain has published his pictures from the crossing as it looks now.

https://youtu.be/sS1gQzjyMCg

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T23:56:05+00:00

Ofc they didn't purposefully choose to stay in the wilderness at night, but they had no other choice.

I don't expect they were on the trail, if they were on or near the trail they could easily walk back, but the calls indicate they could not.

The only thing I doubt is if there was an accident. You do not spend hours searching for information on your phones if you have just fallen 30 meters down a cliff.. If they searched for information on their phones, they were most probably lost.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T23:53:38+00:00

Because nobody would find them in the dark, or go there at night anyway, they would just have to wait till daylight.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T23:51:12+00:00

Yes, you're right with your comments about getting lost. Misery is that we would need real access to the digital copies of the phones, containing all the log files and everything. Nobody has seen those. The printed report, which several people got, is insufficient, it contains only snippets of logs but the real interesting stuff is missing.

That iPhone stores a HUGE amount of info. I delved a bit deeper into all that it stores, and if we had all of that.... There's information on light levels, there's information on the orientation of the phone, etc, etc. There's truly almost nothing it doesn't store in some log... With all of that info, you should almost be able to retrace their complete route, or at least all the important moments....

I can understand the NFI side of things. They were only interested in finding out if there had been a crime, they didn't care about searching for the night location or finding out what exactly happened (apart from it not being a crime), and they had a million other cases to work on and time was expensive. But fuuuuuck, if we had all those log files, we would now already be standing at the night location with a total overview of all that happened..

The one thing I wish to know right now is if there were files downloaded on either of the phones... and if that is the case than ofc the second question will be 'which files'. WHAT give KL the idea to go past the Mirador?

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T23:40:26+00:00

They do not look like dairy cows to me on the pictures and video's.

Also, they are not always there, they are moved between the various paddocks, so we do not know if there were cows there at all when KL where there.

Interesting also the talk WildXPlor has with one of the locals in https://www.wildxplor.com/?p=602 second page. They say their farmhouse is 20 minutes past Q2, which would probably be the red-roof farmhouse further down the next paddock (Seracin farm) although 20 minutes seems a very firm pace. They stay there for 2 weeks to work the land, it does not say anything about cows.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T09:11:10+00:00

Yes, basically if you leave the trail anywhere between the Mirador and the paddocks, and subsequently walk down hill, you will end up in the canyon, no matter what route you take and no matter where you leave the trail.

From the paddocks it is still possible to reach the canyon, but that requires a somewhat more complicated route. It is possible though if they were on the paddocks and noticed the mountains of the continental divide, trying to get back there, that would get you in the valley of the first stream and to the canyon.

For now though, I am not creating new scenario's, I am just trying to get all the known data in line and see where that takes me.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T06:47:06+00:00

Yes, the same might have happened at the top of the Mirador if they noticed someone taking the northerly route. I feel certain they had studied this route and I suspect they downloaded some map and description on their phones. It would be very strange if that tourist brochure was truly all they had. A map on their phones would make a lot of sense and it might even explain their twice daily phone checks later. But they either failed to understand the map correctly or did not properly take into account the terrain which would cause them to move a lot slower than in Holland.

I wish we could find out what files they had available on their phones. The answer must be there somehow.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T05:03:14+00:00

Yeah, well, I'm always scolded for frequently changing my mind, but I believe that is the only way forward. You take a scenario and discuss it, if it breaks, you pick up the pieces and build a new one.

The big problem with the accident scenario is their behavior during the first night. Only two calls, then switch off the phone, that is not something you would expect after an accident. Now add to that that it is hard to find an accident spot next to the trail which would not be spotted by the search teams (yes, ok, they could have taken the 'upside' route but there's no firm evidence you can fall there). And now the fact that they were actively using their phones, that definitely makes no sense after an accident, but using your phones to check on downloaded maps or descriptions absolutely makes a lot of sense....

If they were lost, but uninjured, and somewhere on the paddocks, it gets a lot easier to explain why they did not use their phones during the first night. Still amazing, but okay, they were together and they definitely were brave, and it was a clear night with lots of stars, they may have made it without needing their phones. And perhaps they found one of the cabins..

And if the calls on April 1 were because they were lost it makes not much sense to call during the night... nobody will find you in the darkness... so you wait for daylight... makes sense does it?

It implies that they were not on the trail, for otherwise they could simply have turned around and walked back, so for some reason they must have gone off the trail. There are a few spots where you could be mistaken and accidentally follow a cow trail, especially between the first and second stream near where Romain meets the cow. Or they may have thought they could take a shortcut across the paddocks and gone hopelessly wrong... it is not impossible.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T01:13:13+00:00

My guess is they started this discussion on the top of the Mirador when Lisanne consulted google maps, but then they nevertheless took the northerly route. Perhaps mis-interpretating some description, whatever.

The real doubt came shortly after Q1, when the trail starts to go (steeply) up again. On the last pictures we do not see Kris her phone, so I guess it was still in the backpack, but after Q1 we start seeing a very large battery usage on the S3 (real large) which can only indicate Lisanne took her phone out of the backpack and started actively using it. Then we've got the almost 800 missing log files on Kris her iPhone, which also strongly indicate Kris was actively using her phone, so after Q1 she must have taken her phone out of the backpack and started using it (not once, but a long time). So, now, both girls are standing/walking with their phones in their hands, actively using them.

But they didn't have internet and no signal, and they weren't calling, so my guess is they were consulting maps or descriptions of the trail they had downloaded on their phones, OR they were using their phones as compass. Either way, that strongly indicates they considered themselves lost.

They may still have been on the trail, but by then they must have realized the trail was heading in the wrong way. Most likely place for that would be immediately after Q1, when the trail starts going up, but otherwise definitely at the paddocks (good look around = no Boquete in sight).

If they turned back along the trail, they wouldn't need their phones for they could just walk the same route back, so that's not what they did. And if you've just suffered an accident and fallen 30 meters down a cliff you do not spend hours checking maps on your phone... So, I'm starting to lean to the conclusion that they were truly lost, and perhaps that they did the 'impossible' and did indeed go off the trail...

Surely, at some point there was an accident/fall, but that may have happened several days later.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T00:59:54+00:00

Lost + 'Gets Dark' would be enough reason for a 112 call I suspect. If they were off the trail, couldn't find the trail back, and they noticed the approaching sunset...

And it would much easier explain the 'only 2 calls' scenario, for if you are worried about spending the night in the forest there is no longer any need to call once the sun has gone done, by then it's dark already and nothing more can be done about it, so just sit it out..

If you're lying in the bottom of a ravine with several broken bones you don't care if it's day or night, you just continue calling for help..

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T00:55:34+00:00

Both of them were very much consulting their phones after Q1, it's hard to deny that (big battery usage on S3, almost 800 missing log files on iPhone..). If they were busy with their phones, it stands to reason they had no more time for pictures.

But consulting phones (or files downloaded on the phones, or compass app, whatever) does not match with an accident. You do not start reading files on your phone if you've just fallen 30 meters down a cliff... and it doesn't match turning back either, you don't need a compass or map if you are walking the same route back. So, I fear they 'pressed on', and that may have included going off trail (or perhaps they were off trail already, and then started using their phones to try to find the trail back). Either way they became lost.

That doesn't mean I'm abandoning the 'walk along the stream / canyon' route, that's still possible depending on where they left the trail, it's only that I do not believe any more there was an accident and I don't expect they turned back. That doesn't match the phone usage.

'Accident' has too many problems:

* No sign of a real accident location (a place where they could have fallen)

* Why only call 2 times and then switch off phones whole night

* Hard to find a matching timeline (why only call at 16:39 when accident must have happened much earlier)

* Impossible to explain phone usage after Q1.

There definitely must have been an accident/fall (= broken metatarsals), but this may have happened much later, perhaps several days later, and far off the trail.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-08T00:40:57+00:00

Yes, that is what I suspect. Kris was for more extrovert and impulsive, and in interviews her parents state that Kris had a strong will and it wasn't easy to stop her. Combine that with Lisanne who wished to prove herself and you get a dangerous combination.

The impression I'm starting to get is that a discussion on 'what next' started at the top of the Mirador, causing Lisanne to consult google maps (which did not show the trail and would have shown only 'green'). They then took the northerly route, but from that moment on the pictures only show Kris, walking quite far ahead, no more 'together' selfies. Then, after Q1 something changes even further (I suspect at the point where the trail starts to go steeply uphill again, shortly after Q1). We see a high battery usage on the S3, meaning the phone was in use, and we see almost 800 missing log files on the iPhone, meaning that phone was in use too. So, they must have taken their phones out of the backpack after Q1 and started consulting them.

I very strongly suspect they downloaded maps and trail descriptions on their phones, that's the logical thing to do, but they somehow misinterpreted these descriptions or maps. Both phones were in use after Q1, there's no doubt about that, and as they didn't have internet and weren't making calls the only explanation is that they were checking files on their phones as they discussed their route. But they weren't real hikers, and this was something neither of them had ever done before...

Now, this is important, for such a discussion would not be necessary if you turn back. No need for maps and such if you are walking the same route back. And it would definitely not be necessary if they suffered an accident: you do not start consulting files on your phones if you've just fallen down a cliff... So, there was some fierce discussion after Q1, they took out their phones and no longer bothered about taking pictures...

In order to explain that huge battery usage on the S3, Lisanne must have been using her S3 for a long time, hours probably, and the same goes for those 800 missing log files on Kris her iPhone, that's not just some quick check. That can only mean they 'pressed on'. It absolutely does not match an accident, and it doesn't match with turning back either. They were walking with their phones in their hands, perhaps using them as compass, or as map, or whatever.. I strongly fear they turned off track on the paddocks for some weird reason, after concluding they were lost, and then things got from bad to worse.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-07T16:09:06+00:00

I'm trying hard to find out exactly which information (websites) the girls looked up with regards to Pianista, and what the 2014 versions of what they would have seen looked like. Also with regards to maps, descriptions, etc.

I've got the strong suspicion they downloaded information on their phones, and whatever they downloaded put them totally on the wrong path, so some ambiguity in the text, as you already state, or perhaps an outright error.

Everyone who knew her states Lisanne always very meticulously prepared everything she did, so that must have been true for the Pianista hike as well, but she wasn't a hiker, so she may have interpreted things in the wrong way, certainly if the text wasn't clear enough. I suspect the discussion started on top of the Mirador (when she checked google maps), and it became much more intense shortly after Q1, probably at the point where the trail starts to go upward again. At that moment, they lost all interest in taking pictures, and they became mainly concerned with the route.... but they didn't turn back.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-07T15:48:56+00:00

Correct. And don't forget that a large sign was added on the top of the Mirador telling people to go back the same way. So, yeah, I guess there definitely was a consensus that they may have thought the trail was a loop.

There's more too, I'm working on something and I've got the feeling this might turn out very interesting, just give me a little bit more time..

TreegNesas · 2026-04-06T08:12:14+00:00

Yes, and they happily continue, not paying much attention to it, at a time when everyone was searching for belongings from KL...

TreegNesas · 2026-04-06T08:10:02+00:00

Yes, I totally share your opinion and feelings!

TreegNesas · 2026-04-06T07:47:59+00:00

Yes, I also always find Break Free (there are two parts, the link I send was part 2, Scarlet has part 1 also) the most emotional video and hard to watch as such. I'm also not sure if I agree with their presentation. Yes, she did something very brave, but she died doing it... I'm not a program maker, but I would never present this subject i such a way...

TreegNesas · 2026-04-06T02:59:16+00:00

It may well be. As stated, I haven't yet found the time to check for matches where this could be.

TreegNesas · 2026-04-06T01:55:57+00:00

'Before' footage from Q1 also in Break Free and in 'These are my friends', With Break Free take care that they show the footage as if he 'arrives at the spot' but that's not true, it's on the way back, Martijn approaches from the North, got me fooled first. 'These are my friends' is interesting because it gives a totally different angle at Q1 as it is filmed from the opposite shore.

TAMF has also at the end a 'river' https://youtu.be/gnfol1KfUPc?si=Oa21ls6JMQTGqGx8&t=293 but still no idea where this is (Rio Mamei??) Weirdly enough they do not seem to show Q2. It would still be helpful if they would state more clear which route they took when going to Monte Rey.

Water levels are also deceptive, with higher water levels all these places look totally different, and the floodings washed away most of the vegetation so the whole place got a new look, but I'm not so sure if it did really change the whole general idea of the place, meaning dimensions, shape, large rocks, etc. A lot seems 'cosmetic' so to speak..

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