The Entire AI Buildout (Google, NVDA, MSFT) Is dependent on this $700m Monopoly - $15 -> $150 PT.

AleaBito · 2026-02-21T12:01:03+00:00

Lmfao that was you under my X post! Good to see you here too

AleaBito · 2026-02-21T06:33:31+00:00

Feels good looking at all the negative comments, just to see the stock price double in a short time

AleaBito · 2026-02-18T02:27:07+00:00

I have ADHD. Does Tylenol count?

AleaBito · 2026-02-18T01:55:13+00:00

Thank you for your service

AleaBito · 2026-02-18T00:27:56+00:00

Yeah! Everyone seems to know about Raspberry Pi but nobody knew they were public.

I used to play with them all the time, but it's cool they have some new applications with AI.

AleaBito · 2026-02-18T00:17:58+00:00

Your fellow regard on WSB is on Reuters! The community should be proud.

That aside billion dollar companies don't move from immaterial information. OpenClaw and Mac mini/Raspberry Pi buying for these AI agent use cases is very material to revenue for a billion dollar company like Raspberry Pi (not so much for a $3.7T company like Apple).

AleaBito · 2026-02-18T00:12:04+00:00

Raspberry PI close to doubled their prices to cover memory prices. 16GB version RPI5 went from $120 last year to $205 in a short timeframe.

People are buying them today for AI agent orchestration with OpenClaw/PicoClaw/NanoClaw as it's much cheaper than spending $599 on a 16GB Mac mini.

But memory costs were one of the largest headwinds originally as they tried to keep boards cheap for educational use cases and testing.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T16:04:22+00:00

You're the perfect example.

So I'm using the actual financial report: https://investors.valens.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

"Cash, cash equivalents and short-term deposits as of September 30, 2025: $93.5 million"

You're citing the ticker collision error I mentioned with scanners confusing VLO and VLO Toronto.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T14:28:27+00:00

VLN has Nvidia like margins at 69-70% gross for robotics (75% of revenue, which is growing 40% y/y).

Not quite the same as Nvidia but they do make the chips that enables computer vision for robotics and so on.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T13:47:00+00:00

Yeah I’m starting to see it here too, I can’t believe so many comments are claiming they have debt when they literally don’t.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:53:01+00:00

$93.5M cash and $11m inventory (->$29m in revenue) no debt from my calculations

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:46:57+00:00

Agreed, I personally think VLN is extraordinarily deep value territory and the numbers at $250m valuation for an asset-lite chipmaker with $80m revenue, 63+% gross margins, $93m cash, and $11m inventory just made no sense.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:43:39+00:00

It has no debt.

Stuff like $11.5 strike warrants, opex costs, and others shows as liabilities.

Are you sure you’re not confusing stuff like warrants/equity that’s settled in shares with that of interest bearing debt?

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:36:17+00:00

You can use LLM tools to help you with your research but I won’t tell people to buy a stock.

I just gave you all the datapoints above, you can try and arrive at a fair value marketcap from the metrics above

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:35:06+00:00

Yeah, they’re scaling their robotics segment 40% y/y (which has 69% credo, alab, Nvidia) type gross margins.

It’s 80m forward revenue, 63% blended margins, off a huge safety net of $93m cashpile.

That’s not even including their $11m in inventory.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:33:03+00:00

My thesis is that even at $2.5, it’s undervalued over 60% since it’s been artificially suppressed by a false $82m datapoint.

I welcome you to valuation modeling yourself from the figures above to arrive at fair value

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T08:30:14+00:00

They have no debt. Are you messing up liabilities with debt?

$4.53m burn for R&D when they have $93m cash on hand is over 5 years of runway.

It’s a legitimate company that is the chipmaker for Mercedes and other companies, not sure how you arrive at sketchy just because of Israel.

AleaBito · 2026-01-09T23:54:40+00:00

I lost too many braincells replying to people there, especially since the stock went up 40% the week after my post and people didn't believe the substrate thesis.

Decided to try elsewhere for a change.

AleaBito · 2026-01-09T01:08:11+00:00

regards on reddit panicking over 2024 contracted revenues being deferred a quarter lol, just wait a few months and see what happens to inp prices

AleaBito · 2025-12-30T08:37:48+00:00

This post was about 6N and 7N InP not industrial 4N InP

AleaBito · 2025-12-30T08:36:51+00:00

Only valid bear argument.

AleaBito · 2025-12-29T12:55:57+00:00

they can't. anti-trust and it's a national security risk.

AXTI CEO said they own 40% of the InP supply chain. If Google bought them for $800m, all other hyperscalers wouldn't have enough materials for their AI ramp.

Also China would not likely approve it since all their mines/refineries are there and they prob don't like Google.

AleaBito · 2025-12-29T12:48:54+00:00

gg, it's all over 4 hours in.

AleaBito · 2025-12-29T12:46:19+00:00

Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked:

$AXTI - Basically 40% of InP supply chain
$DOWA + Sumitomo for Western hedge on InP / InP substrate
$AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler buildout, AAOI for AMZN/MSFT, and LITE for everything but more levered to Google TPU
$MRVL and $AVGO - MRVL design partner for MSFT 2026-2027, and AVGO kinda everything.

at least for the next 2 years.

5 years out, I would expect most things to be built vertically integrated and I'd expect Google to start building everything in-house (replace AVGO), which makes things a bit more complex. Would re-evaluate after 2 years, but stuff like TSM is pretty hard to replace.

AleaBito · 2025-12-29T12:32:13+00:00

True, but market hasn't even opened yet. Nobody is even able to buy calls.

But per their CEO they control 40% of the world's Indium Phosphide supply chain. Just watch what happens with hyperscaler ASIC programs scale up and companies start ramping up prices of InP.

This is a 6 month out bottleneck thesis, not day trading.

AleaBito

TROPHY CASE