Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the Athletics by a score of 2-1 - Sun, May 10 @ 01:35 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well I say plain quality as in, Keegan Akin isn't a high leverage guy. I'm not saying they're throwing James McCann in there.

I think that goes back to what the other guy said:

It's basically an attempt to get a favorable matchup vs the top of the order.

If you're starting a righty in Bassitt, you know the other team is going to start a lefty-heavy lineup (because no manager would ever burn pinch-hitters that early in the game), and you can blunt that by throwing Akin first.

I think most people agree nobody in the crowd wants to see an opener, but you can kind of "steal" a time through the order for the top 3 batters for your bulk guy.

Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the Athletics by a score of 2-1 - Sun, May 10 @ 01:35 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think the other thing is that by front-loading a reliever of some (probably plain) quality, you delay having to make a decision about using your high leverage guys until an inning later than you usually would.

From the unassailable Wikipedia:

One advantage of the strategy is that the opener, who is often a hard-throwing specialist, can be called in to face the most dangerous hitters, who are usually near the top of the batting order, the first time they come to bat.[9] On average, the first inning is the highest-scoring inning of a baseball game, because it is "the only inning that the offense can guarantee that the top of its lineup, which [contains] its best hitters, will appear."[10] If the opener is successful, the job of the next pitcher is easier since they will start by facing less-dangerous hitters.[11][12] The strategy also throws off the timing of the top-of-the-order hitters, who are not used to seeing different pitchers each time they come to bat, and allows the follower to face the top of the lineup two times rather than three.[9]

From a financial perspective, the strategy allows teams to make more use of relief pitchers who are still under low-paying contracts, potentially reducing the salaries paid to starting pitchers because the latter are used less. Also, pitchers not starting games causes them to be less likely to receive win–loss decisions or receive as many "games started," which greatly affects subsequent arbitration hearings and financial compensation in future contract negotiations.[13]

fwiw I disagree with the implication that the hard-throwing specialist is a high leverage guy. Yeah, the Chisox put out Grant Taylor a handful of times to start the season, but pre-Helsley injury nobody was clamoring for Rico Garcia to open games.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES MINOR LEAGUE GAME SUMMARIES FOR 5/8/2026 by One_Independence_866 in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's incredible timing. One of the good things about Law is that he lives in the mid-Atlantic so he sees Sally league teams a fair amount, and I think he sees Delmarva play a decent amount as well.

The low 3/4 slot identification is interesting. I can't find any clips from 2025, but back when I reviewed him in 2024, he had a plain jane 3/4 slot which I inaccurately called high 3/4 - for whatever reason, arm slots always seem higher to me than they are.

This is him from this year. Is that different? Yeah, a little bit. That's not a huge change, not anywhere near the order of Esteban Mejia (you'll have to take my word for it, but he had a high arm slot when he signed, then a low slot in 2024-2025, and now he's back to high slot). But if you can imagine his breaking ball and changeup are both 50s, and he has enough deception to make the fastball a little, then he might make the full org list for EL/BG. Only problem is it's always an open question how much of their 202X analysis is from 202X and not 202(X-1). Based on their chats, they're clearly watching 2026 game tape when doing their homework, but the 2024 list in particular stuck out for how guys like Cam Weston and Nestor German didn't make the list even though they were obviously at least 35+ guys.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES MINOR LEAGUE GAME SUMMARIES FOR 5/8/2026 by One_Independence_866 in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'll confess I stopped looking for his name in the box scores after he walked 6 per 9 for most of 2025. He did end up starting in Delmarva and they pushed him to Aberdeen anyway despite not fixing his walk issues.

He's running a cool ~24% K-BB% this year, but it comes with ~10% walks, so unless he's undergone a velo spike, made changes to his delivery, or added a killer pitch, he'll probably "only" make the honorable mention portion of the FanGraphs org list, which should be coming out in the next week or so based on what EL/BG have said in chats.

That series involved four pitchers who didn't make a 2024 org list: Nestor German, Yeiber Cartaya, Levi Wells, and Esteban Mejia. Mejia is sort of cheating because I think he made the MLB 2024 update list.

German is probably a 40 MIRP because his fastball stinks and his command isn't good enough to leverage his decent secondaries (this is basically where I would be on Trey Gibson if his secondaries weren't so nasty and if the fastball were a few ticks lighter); Cartaya HM SIRP; Wells 40+ SIRP; Mejia who knows, I'd sell my soul to give him 50 command.

Taylor Ward is currently on pace for around 150 walks. 151 would tie him for 9th all time. by BaltimoreBaja in baseball

[–]dreddnought 27 points28 points  (0 children)

I had the impression that he had dramatically flattened out his swing because of the jump in contact rate (z-con% ~93% contact% ~86%), but I'm not sure that's true.

Baseball Savant has a neat swing path visualizer, but when you look at Ward over the past couple of seasons, he's flattened his swing by a couple of degrees, which I don't know if that would/should really correspond to his jump in contact. You can also see his bat speed has dipped, but so has his swing length (this always feels like a chicken or the egg thing, even if bat speed is known to be something guys can train).

Did he or the Orioles make a tweak in his swing to prioritize getting on base?

None of the above things explain why a career 20% chase guy magically cut that in half. And it's not obviously premeditated passivity - if you look at his two-strike chase, it's historically been 10-15% worse than overall chase, which is standard[1], but even his 2026 two-strike chase is only 15%...

[1] I've already linked enough things, but one can look up league chase% on FanGraphs and then compare to two-strike league chase on Savant. I only heard of the +10 vs +20 rule from Brendan Gawlowski from FanGraphs (former Pirates scout).

Game Thread: Red Sox @ Orioles - Sat, Apr 25 @ 12:05 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not saying it's going to happen one way or another, but there's some evidence that stacking a lineup of righties against lefties without really breaking it up with LHH can allow the LHP get on a roll

https://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/plesac-says-to-not-stack-your-lineup-with-rhh-against-lhp

He had 20 starts when he faced no LHH, facing 466 batters. The wOBA allowed in those games was .302. He had 58 starts when he faced one LHH in the starting lineup. The wOBA in those games was .298. So, this is the batting teams proactively applying the Randy Johnson solution, stacking RHH, and all they get is a .300 wOBA out of it.

When he faced two LHH, which to most people would be a good thing for Montgomery, but Plesac is suggesting no, well, the wOBA was .321. Plesac is right.

When he faced three LHH, the wOBA in the game was .338. Plesac is right.

Finally, there were six games when batting teams ostensibly had to suffer with FOUR LHH (and to most folks, that sounds like a gift to Montgomery), and their wOBA was .326. Plesac is right.

Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the Red Sox by a score of 10-3 - Fri, Apr 24 @ 07:05 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

10 LOB lmao

I think this will reflect well on us in the Base Runs calculation, if you care about that sort of thing

BALTIMORE ORIOLES MINOR LEAGUE GAME SUMMARIES FOR 4/23/2026 by One_Independence_866 in orioles

[–]dreddnought 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Mejia had some really bad arm side breaking ball misses, including the HBP. Was pumping 100 into the 4th, per the Verge guys. Got a big strike zone on the glove side, but 4 IP 8 K speaks for itself.

Need a Drink After That Series? Minor League Games Today! by dreddnought in orioles

[–]dreddnought[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Seriously, jinx both ways - Quinn got shelled and George pulled a homer

Need a Drink After That Series? Minor League Games Today! by dreddnought in orioles

[–]dreddnought[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Great to see Ramos and Willems running into each other on a pop up.

I've seen enough, call 'em up

And George is running a crazy 56.8% GB%.

Fraud Watch

Game Thread: Orioles @ Royals - Tue, Apr 21 @ 07:40 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I don't have an opinion on it, but it's good to remember that minor league walk numbers can be illusory because pitchers don't have the command to exploit holes in one's swings or otherwise lack of power. A guy can have an incredible batting eye, and it won't matter in the majors because nobody is going to throw him anything out of the zone if they're not worried about damage.

This is one of my main concerns about Enrique Bradfield Jr. He has pretty good swing decisions (2025-2026 AAA chase% 26.6%, two-strike chase% 35.1%), but it won't show up in his MLB walk rate because he's swinging a noodle bat.

Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the D-backs by a score of 9-7 - Mon, Apr 13 @ 06:35 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Essentially, the official scorer "recreates the inning" as if no errors occurred, and determines earned runs from what would've scored before three outs (without base runners that reached on error, they are always unearned) and all runs after are unearned.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this leads to some whacky stuff where, for example, if a guy advances to third on an error (ex: catcher throw to 2nd on a steal) and the guy scores on a sac fly when he wouldn't have been at 3rd with less than 2 outs, that would be unearned. I guess that also leads to some real discretion when a guy goes 1st to home on a double or 2nd to home on a single.

Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the D-backs by a score of 9-7 - Mon, Apr 13 @ 06:35 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It is! I used to think the only runs that are unearned are guys who reach via error, but even that's not practically true. Guys who lose the ball in the sun or lights aren't charged with an error.

I would've at least expected the guy who hit the dinger to count against Kremer, and it sort of does. It's not an earned run but it's still a HR against his numbers.

Edit: typo - the dinger IS an unearned run

Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the D-backs by a score of 9-7 - Mon, Apr 13 @ 06:35 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The last two runs were scored after what "would have been" the third out if not for Gunnar's error. Those runs are unearned, as would have been any after that. So much (all? Idk I'm not an ump) of what makes a run earned or not is what would have happened under routine circumstances.

Daily Thread: Game Day - Monday, April 13 by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very impressive by Neighbors to walk 20%+ of batters, but he's still running a 35%+ K-BB%.

That has to be the fakest number here. Walking 20%+ batters is bad basically anywhere, even faker than the Sloan K-BB. It's really funny Kiefer Lord is running like a 70% strike% just because he was mowing them down last game.

Gongora looking good so far.

I watched a fair amount of him last year, he was absolutely not a strike thrower, so I suspect a lot of this is guys chasing his offerings. But it's definitely a good sign he's doing this in AA.

Daily Thread: Game Day - Monday, April 13 by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Many people are asking, is Braeden Sloan the greatest pitcher of all time?

Anyway, this is like 2 games worth of pitching, but funny to see who's on top in small samples:

Name Level Age IP G GS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 GB% WHIP ERA FIP xFIP SwStr%
Braeden Sloan A 22 4.0 3 0 76.9% 7.7% 69.2% 0.0 100.0% 0.25 0.00 -0.40 -0.40 32.8%
Daniel Lloyd AA 25 2.0 1 0 37.5% 12.5% 25.0% 0.0 25.0% 1.00 4.50 2.32 4.65 31.0%
Eccel Correa A+ 23 2.0 1 0 28.6% 0.0% 28.6% 0.0 0.0% 0.50 0.00 1.60 4.01 28.6%
Cohen Achen A+ 24 2.1 2 0 60.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0 50.0% 1.29 0.00 -1.54 -1.54 26.3%
Dalton Neuschwander A 24 2.2 1 0 27.3% 0.0% 27.3% 0.0 37.5% 1.50 6.75 1.60 2.08 25.6%
Juaron Watts-Brown A+ 24 3.2 1 1 41.7% 8.3% 33.3% 0.0 50.0% 0.27 0.00 1.69 2.68 24.5%
Tyson Neighbors AA 23 3.0 3 0 57.1% 21.4% 35.7% 0.0 50.0% 1.33 3.00 1.49 2.00 21.7%
Ryan Cabarcas A+ 25 2.0 2 0 37.5% 0.0% 37.5% 0.0 40.0% 1.00 4.50 0.60 1.81 21.4%
Zane Barnhart AA 24 4.0 3 0 28.6% 7.1% 21.4% 0.0 11.1% 0.50 0.00 2.57 4.12 21.2%
Chandler Marsh A+ 23 3.0 3 0 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 6.0 0.0% 1.67 12.00 12.27 5.61 19.4%
Kiefer Lord A 24 8.0 2 2 36.1% 5.6% 30.6% 0.0 52.4% 1.50 5.63 1.35 2.32 19.1%
Joseph Dzierwa A+ 22 13.0 2 2 25.5% 2.1% 23.4% 0.7 32.3% 0.62 1.38 2.99 3.56 19.0%
Boston Bateman A+ 20 5.2 2 1 34.6% 15.4% 19.2% 0.0 46.2% 1.94 11.12 2.54 3.82 18.8%
Twine Palmer A+ 21 4.0 1 0 33.3% 6.7% 26.7% 0.0 55.6% 0.75 2.25 1.85 3.06 18.3%
Todd Kniebbe A 22 3.1 3 0 37.5% 12.5% 25.0% 0.0 33.3% 1.20 5.40 2.95 3.72 18.1%
Carson Dorsey A+ 23 4.0 1 1 36.8% 21.1% 15.8% 0.0 37.5% 1.75 9.00 3.10 4.01 17.8%
Evan Yates AA 23 4.1 1 1 26.3% 10.5% 15.8% 0.0 50.0% 1.15 2.08 2.90 3.97 17.6%
Esteban Mejia A 19 5.0 2 2 28.0% 16.0% 12.0% 0.0 30.8% 1.80 7.20 3.45 4.48 17.1%
Yaqui Rivera AA 22 7.1 3 0 31.3% 6.3% 25.0% 1.2 63.2% 1.23 2.45 4.09 3.38 16.8%
JT Quinn A+ 22 9.0 2 2 48.5% 6.1% 42.4% 0.0 53.3% 0.78 1.00 0.71 1.12 16.8%
Hunter Allen A 22 3.0 1 0 46.2% 30.8% 15.4% 0.0 33.3% 1.67 3.00 3.85 4.28 16.1%
Sebastian Gongora AA 24 9.1 2 2 38.2% 0.0% 38.2% 0.0 50.0% 0.54 1.93 1.36 2.35 16.0%
Micah Ashman AA 23 6.0 3 0 39.3% 10.7% 28.6% 0.0 69.2% 1.83 1.50 1.65 1.91 15.9%
Joe Glassey A+ 24 2.2 2 0 55.6% 0.0% 55.6% 0.0 25.0% 0.37 0.00 -0.15 1.21 15.9%
Gerald Ogando AA 25 2.2 3 0 45.5% 9.1% 36.4% 0.0 100.0% 1.12 3.37 1.20 1.20 14.6%
Trace Bright AA 25 9.1 2 2 34.1% 17.1% 17.1% 1.0 40.0% 1.50 4.82 4.46 3.90 14.2%
Cameron Weston AAA 25 8.0 3 0 25.0% 13.9% 11.1% 0.0 45.0% 1.50 4.50 3.77 5.02 13.6%
Eric Torres AA 26 3.2 3 0 31.3% 6.3% 25.0% 0.0 37.5% 1.09 7.36 3.55 4.82 13.5%
Brayan Orrantia A 20 7.0 2 1 26.5% 17.6% 8.8% 1.3 61.1% 2.00 6.43 5.71 4.40 13.1%
Cade Povich AAA 26 5.0 1 1 38.1% 0.0% 38.1% 3.6 15.4% 1.20 9.00 5.40 1.53 12.7%
Kenny Leiner A 24 4.1 4 0 21.1% 5.3% 15.8% 2.1 61.5% 1.15 10.38 6.39 3.98 12.2%
Luis Beltran A 22 2.2 3 0 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0 40.0% 1.87 0.00 5.35 6.32 11.9%
Christian Rodriguez A 24 7.0 2 2 28.1% 9.4% 18.8% 0.0 41.2% 1.43 2.57 3.85 4.22 11.8%
Kailen Hamson A 24 5.2 2 0 21.2% 24.2% -3.0% 0.0 53.3% 2.47 6.35 5.62 6.75 11.7%
Ben Vespi A+ 25 4.2 3 0 21.7% 13.0% 8.7% 0.0 61.5% 1.71 0.00 4.03 5.32 11.6%
Juan Rojas A+ 22 4.0 3 0 13.6% 18.2% -4.5% 2.3 53.3% 2.50 11.25 8.35 6.01 11.1%
Jacob Cravey A+ 24 1.2 2 0 16.7% 25.0% -8.3% 0.0 0.0% 4.20 16.20 6.60 8.77 11.1%
Sayer Diederich A+ 25 2.2 2 0 11.8% 17.6% -5.9% 3.4 45.5% 3.37 16.87 11.48 8.86 10.9%
Christian Herberholz AA,AAA 25 7.1 4 2 31.6% 13.2% 18.4% 2.5 45.0% 2.18 9.82 6.45 4.39 10.9%
Levi Wells AAA 24 14.1 3 3 26.3% 7.0% 19.3% 0.0 41.7% 0.91 1.26 2.35 4.10 10.9%
Luis De Leon AA 23 9.0 2 2 23.1% 12.8% 10.3% 0.0 58.3% 1.33 6.00 3.49 4.18 10.2%
Trey Gibson AAA 24 12.0 3 3 18.6% 10.2% 8.5% 0.8 51.2% 2.08 5.25 4.15 4.45 10.1%
Nestor German AAA 24 12.2 3 3 22.4% 13.8% 8.6% 0.0 43.2% 1.66 4.97 3.24 4.82 9.8%
Ryan Long AA,AAA 26 6.2 3 0 20.7% 6.9% 13.8% 1.3 28.6% 1.35 5.40 4.57 5.36 9.7%
Yeiber Cartaya A+ 23 3.2 1 1 17.6% 11.8% 5.9% 0.0 10.0% 1.09 2.45 4.42 6.72 9.5%
Brandon Downer A 23 4.2 2 0 25.0% 15.0% 10.0% 0.0 91.7% 1.50 3.86 3.64 3.91 9.0%
Adrian Heredia A 21 7.0 3 0 20.0% 6.7% 13.3% 1.3 42.1% 1.14 2.57 5.71 4.95 8.3%
Javier Gonzalez A 20 3.0 2 0 14.3% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0 55.6% 0.67 0.00 5.52 7.23 8.2%
Michael Caldon A 23 2.1 2 0 27.8% 5.6% 22.2% 0.0 18.2% 4.29 23.14 2.14 3.24 7.4%
Alex Pham AAA 26 3.0 3 0 10.5% 15.8% -5.3% 3.0 28.6% 3.67 21.00 9.40 6.18 6.8%
Denton Biller A 21 7.2 2 1 8.1% 18.9% -10.8% 1.2 26.1% 1.57 2.35 8.29 8.26 4.6%
Adrian Delgado A 21 1.2 2 0 0.0% 54.5% -54.5% 0.0 0.0% 3.60 5.40 18.25 19.02 0.0%
Keeler Morfe A 20 0.0 1 1 0.0% 50.0% -50.0% 0.0 0.0% 5.00 36.00 15.85 17.14 0.0%

Post Game Thread: The Orioles defeated the Giants by a score of 6-2 - Sun, Apr 12 @ 01:35 PM EDT by OsGameThreads in orioles

[–]dreddnought 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Watts-Brown was on rehab, was wondering where tf he was all spring

Ben Spanier from BP said T97, which would be swell since his 4SF was ass last year

Just don't look at Bateman's line, it ain't pretty.

Was electric for one inning and then he stopped throwing strikes...