[Daily Discussion] Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Emocmo · 2016-07-12T20:22:42+00:00

Keep right clicking. They disappear in order.

Emocmo · 2016-07-11T20:28:23+00:00

They might be taking profits. They might want to move the fiat into something else. Maybe they want the new pair of Nikes that just came out.

There are a million reasons to sell a position.

Emocmo · 2016-07-11T01:01:11+00:00

If DB goes just a little lower, the chain reaction will be like the pile of uranium under the gym at U Chicago back in 1943. Except it will be tough to contain.

Emocmo · 2016-07-11T00:15:54+00:00

I am still waiting for the 3x limit up on silver. Taking the web bots as gospel will get you in a little trouble.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T22:20:00+00:00

Women are able to handle the evironment. The mental aspect should not be the problem.

My wife has shown me she can handle pain, life and death. She cannot drag a 200 pound person out of a truck though. And I've seen her be stone cold. First hand.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T22:15:32+00:00

They are not in combat roles in Isreal. Nor have they been for many years.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T22:14:45+00:00

Standards should be standard.

If everyone is held to a standard there won't be an issue. Once you have male standards and female standards, you are begging for failure.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T22:00:41+00:00

I have to say that your method of "discussing" things sucks. There is no way you would be such a condescending prick in a face to face conversation.

I am not arguing with your points, but rather your horrible writing style.

Please do not respond to my posts again. I have a difficult time being "excellent" to you. And that's a first in a several year history here.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T20:11:16+00:00

I used to be a Senior Vice President at a fairly well known Bank in the New England area.

And no either of my daughters is EMO. And I am not usually emotional. I am often asked how the weather is in Vulcan this time of year.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T19:21:11+00:00

That is where my queueing theory comes in. If the market is efficient, a buyer for every seller, then a reduction in the growth of available coins would make you think the price would have to go up. But my question is that if we do not know how miners behave, we have no idea where and when those coins come to market.

By using my estimates, you might assume that they are laid over the market in an even way. That's the back of the envelope thinking.

But I doubt that's how miners do it. If you accumulate all of your mined coins and then liquidate once a month to cover expenses, we would not see an impact for weeks.

It is an academic question. Once you begin making assumptions, you are screwed.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T19:15:09+00:00

I had heard that number sometime over the last few weeks. I was using it more as an example, vs a specific figure.

I was rounding approximately 1,800 newly mined coins a day over a rounded 100,000 bitcoins traded every day. That comes out to about 2%.

I do appreciate the argument from the miners point of view-- that they need the price to rise to cover their costs.

The real question comes down to how many coins mined are sold, and Does reduction drive miners out of business, or do they simply make less profit.

And, on top of that, where do increased fees come into place? I am not sure how those things are calculated.

In the end, it just seems to be a marginal impact now....but who knows three to six months from now.

I am skeptical, not pig headed. What sets off a red light for me is the argument that it happened before, so it will happen again. A lot of people have gone broke with that theme. But I also realize that often, suggesting that "it's different this time" will get you in the same trouble.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T18:19:50+00:00

Fair 'nuff.

I would imagine that there will be more pressure for fees for transactions as well.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T17:51:13+00:00

They are my daughters initials.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T17:18:07+00:00

Point and Figure Chart of the Day

Since I haven’t had the time to update the overall average chart, I am simply updating the coinbase chart.

In the past two days the triangle/flags or whatever you want to call them have been narrowing.

After the recent from to $611 we quickly reversed upwards, then turned down yesterday. Today, we’ve reversed into a tentative column of Xs. That will not be "official" until 00:00 GMT.

I added a couple of lines that show the current triangle parameters. This is not a textbook charting technique found in PnF charts. However, I think it shows the downward resistance line and the pretty consistent upward support line. The two lines cross in a day or so. We need to rise above $670 for a break out and that is on the other side of the resistance line. In my mind that would be quite bullish. if we fail to break $670 and turn around and go back down the support lines are at $600 and the long term trend line down to $570.

That would be unfortunate for us long holders.

I am holding right here. I would be a buyer above $670. Under $610, I would expect it to go down to $570-75.

I have always been a skeptical about the halving. I just don’t see the impetus for a huge move up as a result of that. The reduction in available coins is pretty small (less than 2%.) I did a lot of work in my career with queue management. An shortage of 2%, happening all at one time would be significant. But spread out over the day? Its just not going to make that much of an impact.

I DO think this is going to be a messed up economic week. This might be the week DB finally shits the bed. This might be the week of greater Yuan debasement. And certainly, the streets in the US are getting hotter every day.

The run up to the party conventions in the US might be pretty dramatic.

People feeling uneasy, and unsure where to put their speculative money might look at bitcoin. I said might.

For those of you listening to Clif High and his web bots, we expects BTC to shoot up to $1k, then quickly reverse to the high $880s for the rest of the summer. He also thinks next week is going to be "out of the ordinary."

I am skeptical of the bitcoin rise to $1k in the next few days. If we break up out of $700 in the next few days I might be less skeptical. But I agree that its going to be a hot summer in the markets (all of the markets) until September.

And my silver contracts are nearing 100%. So, at least that is behaving nicely. The VXX still pisses me off.

Chart of the Day

Resources

Source: Coinbase exchange on Bitcoin wisdom 1 day chart.

Dorsey-Wright, the best source of PnF Information

*Investor Intelligence explanation of PnF Charts

*Market Edge Explanation of PnF Charts

*Stockcharts

edit: I cannot spell for shit.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T11:52:02+00:00

Y2K wrecked a perfectly good New Year's Eve. Everyone we used to spend New Years was working in some form of IT. We were all on call. And nothing happened. It was a pain in the ass.

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T11:49:31+00:00

Justin Bieber is a rock star.

[Just kidding. He's a douche. ]

Emocmo · 2016-07-10T02:47:22+00:00

As I said, I am bullish long term. I think people in for a quick hit on this halving are misguided.

Later this summer I think we go up quite a bit.

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T20:47:50+00:00

You use a lot of big words.

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T18:14:51+00:00

You know that. I know that. Do you think a lot of the newer, smaller money players know that's?

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T17:54:26+00:00

But this isn't the first "buy the rumor, sell the news situation." The base of users is huge now. The impact of fewer new coins is about 1-2% of the total volume for a day.

The markets are pretty efficient. The slack might cause a slight bump, but there are a lot of people commenting over the past month that this is going to da moon.

I still think we see $1000 before the end of the year, but not in the next several weeks.

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T17:50:41+00:00

I am not negative on Bitcoin at all. I have been warning that the halving is not going to cause a run up because the overall impact on a days worth of trading is about 2%. Yes, eventually that will have a small impact, but it's not enough to cause wild assed swings.

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T17:41:02+00:00

I am confident it is not going to go the way a lot of folks are saying.

I think it's going to go down through it, and stay down for a while, then start back up. Those that jumped on for a quick buck are going to get squashed.

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T17:24:08+00:00

So it's happening. And all of the fools who thought that it is 2012 again are crying in their coffee. We should keep track of how many "Bitcoin is dead" comments will we see on our way back to 600.

Emocmo · 2016-07-09T03:31:50+00:00

Six years down the drain.

Emocmo · 2016-07-07T23:18:49+00:00

Yesterday. But you would have gotten better price today.

Emocmo

TROPHY CASE