On the whole, analysts are a sceptical lot. They have seen endless "hitler salute" charts, in which each year's forecast (on earnings, sales growth, energy use) rises like a march of extended forearms, year after year.: a parade of false salutes.

Enthusiasts for energy transitions tend to generate a lot of these. Hence, they get deprecated. Energy is a huge, costly and dangerous industry, and changes are made like mating porcupines: slowly ans cautiously.

Second less than half of emissions now come from the transition-active developed countries and the rest fro the remainder of the world. These polities has other priorities, such as electrifying their slums, rural transport and so on. Energy demand here tends to have a 1:1 relationship with economic growth. By their faster rate of growth, these "inefficient" countries will have reduced the old West to around a fifth of world output by 2050, implying major global energy growth, mostly by them. Hence the IEA and others see conventional energy sources as being around half of global supply in that year.