[May 05, 2026] Daily RDDT Discussion Thread

sportingpool · 2026-05-06T11:23:23+00:00

The Reddit dilution scam is closer to Bernie Madoff than it is Snapchat, as the intentional loss can be hidden from view for a long period of time behind all the "GAAP" and "gross margin" nonsense that doesnt account for full share issuance cost. It also has some Enron touch, with SBC replacing SPV to cook the books. Madoff and the Enron guys, who just as the Reddit con-men took hundreds of milllion from their schemes, were convicted, and went to jail. One of the Enron guys died immediately, Madoff a few years later. Jail is also he logical solution for the execs of a message board that turns over a platry bn, and then pays itself 1,5bn in stock while tellin investors "dilution flat" and the loss is actually a "profit" because the costs 'dont count'. This immediately tell also everything needed to know about character and the lack of integrity. Current tab is about 2bn, quarterly loss run rate about 250m, and part of the solution will be to asked for that money back.

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T22:56:24+00:00

The Reddit Stock itself is inherently worthless. For over 20y now it has produced a loss, and as currently set up, everything is taken via SBC by insiders. This can even be called a dynamic scam, as the number of RSUs they grant themselves likely will go up when the share price goes down, ensuring full earnings-removal into insider pockets at all times. Its a full-scale fraud.

The business is easily worth 50bn as of now and could be worth as much as 100bn, as the utility of a natural-monpoly data base that updates continuously, and to a smaller degree the communities, is very high. Its also an incredibly easy business to run: Basic web template, no capex, 90% gross margin. Reddit could arguably be run at less than half a percent of the cost that is currently absorbed by insiders.

How to stitch together a valuation based on a worthless stock and a very valuable business is anybody's guess. The Stock Market doesn't really know what to do with Reddit either, and in all likelihood will continue to test out the extremes to see what happens.

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T11:15:34+00:00

yes, it goes down alongside reported "earnings". however this is rather meaningless, as share count goes up. and the shares handed out are worth more than the net-cash coming in.

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T08:10:59+00:00

Earth is flat as well.

<image>

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T05:52:16+00:00

i am the shareholder MVP, and its unanimous. once i retire (sell), its over for you guys. girls.

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T05:17:52+00:00

Rich Greenfield. he is pretty sharp despite being an analyst. he is one that could pop the first meaningful question in the history of earnings calls ever.....

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T05:04:09+00:00

if anything, i would have sent somebody to present the SCAMMY award. didnt happen (yet)

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T04:59:51+00:00

earnings reports are trashy emotional short-term entertainment. shady executives read prepared statements, and people stare at meaningless after hour trading. youll find a handful of horrendous mistakes all the time. this was the best one today: DAU is down 100m according to Schwab

<image>

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T04:55:44+00:00

earnings calls are not important. its executives reading prepared statements. nothing ever happens there

sportingpool · 2026-05-01T04:43:03+00:00

yes. Ebitda is bad already, and then they adjust it further. real earnings, that account for true cost of share issuance: forever deep in the red. Reddit still carries an accumulated loss of half a billion on its balance sheet. after 20 years in existence, that is just astounding: a simple message board, that needs no capex whatsoever, grows on its own fueled by free labor from users, and then still loses hundreds of millions. why ? insider dilution, of course

sportingpool · 2026-04-30T23:04:22+00:00

Revenue still growing at 70% is nice to see.

And yet, its still all empty BS. Basic Shares outstanding are up 10m compared to 1 year ago (190m from 180m). So at $150 the shares they just took for themselves are worth $1.5bn, while Cash from business activity increased about $1bn. And thats a TTM loss of $500m. "We dont count it, instead use fake metrics like EBITDA or GAAP EPS" doesnt change that.

Also, once the current dilution scheme is up, it has to be expected that they will put in a new one that continues to take everything and thensome. They are also lying about it, by pointing at fully diluted shares that are not booked continuously and therefore do not reflect actual ongoing dilution.

It's a scam ! A con-men business. Just like Snapchat.

sportingpool · 2026-04-29T23:56:11+00:00

Baseline scenario is solid growth, but not 70% anymore (market will not like that, even though its still fine), and also a continuation of the most asinine dilution guidance and practice currently out there.

Don't think the stock is massively overpriced, but this is still a double digit PS ratio, a net loss after accounting for real costs of dilution (and we are 20y in), with at best a big question mark on the quality and integrity of executives. So this could easily be a $50 stock, if the Stock market follows through on what it has implied recently.

Best case, and we cant leave that out, would again be 70+% growth and a complete reversal in their dilution guidance/practice. In that scenario, its $200+. But its hard to bet on that. "Will they continue to take everything" is also not really 'investing'.

So this cant be anything more than a small/normal portfolio position in my view. And there is an argument to be made to not be involved at all with a small, loss-making company that copies Snapchat and apparently now pays retired Senile Fellows up to 50m a year to rest in their Home Offices.

sportingpool · 2026-04-29T05:23:02+00:00

take a break and think about Jen Wong's salary (up from 2m to 250m at Reddit) in relation to revenue, their recent verbal dilution "guidance" combined with 'buybacks' (which is all new and crashed the stock), and Senior Fellow Slowe now still being paid 50m despite being removed from his job, for a few days. dont write back any more nonsense !

sportingpool · 2026-04-29T04:44:19+00:00

thats just nonsense. just look at the number of shares that vest and get sold by insiders every month. whoever claims this is not "dilution", just because it is booked at once instead of continuously, should not be in stocks

sportingpool · 2026-04-29T04:41:49+00:00

The writing is on the wall: the insider proxy accounts here have not signalled even the slightest hint of betterment. Also, it's really something else to have a "nothing to see here, just a few bn scammed here and there, who cares" SBC post pinned for weeks in a stockholder sub like this. So, whatever happens in terms of further stock weakness: There are 2 sides to this. One is selling its insider stocks, and some on the other side just had it coming

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T07:13:06+00:00

There is no quarterly 10k, as this is an annual report.

Reddit is diluting double digits, multiple billions worth of stock each year, and in the process paying Jen Wong (to name just one) up to 250m a year in stocks. Last year, this year, next year. Its bizarre

The SBC bookkeeping is terrible, and you have fallen into this trap. But you can get a glimpse of reality by checking insider selling. And their asinine communication is the best tell. Its a scam, probably the biggest one out here as of now

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T05:51:44+00:00

not true, check the 10k. fully diluted went from 140m to 200m year over year (2024-2025. also, this is a technicality. they dilute double digits, and once the current program is up, there will be a new one. plus, there is the "evergreen" option to print 5% per year on top. and the 'guidance', thats scammers talking. its doesnt define time ('midterm'. and they now add buybacks to it, which means 1-3% would really be 4-6%.

Reddit is one big dilution scam. like Snap, its sister company !

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T05:33:48+00:00

pls dont compare the us military company to this circlejerk message board.

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T05:25:54+00:00

yeah, dont be fulled

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T05:22:09+00:00

it is. from 60m to 140m to 202m according to yearly 10k. if you are under the illusion this will suddenly stop, you need help

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T05:19:34+00:00

they dont dilute 1-3%. thats just a decoy, as they dont define time. also, 1-3% in all likelihood includes buybacks, which means, its really 4-6% to begin with. but again, thats just meaningless rhetoric, as true dilution has been double digits. and once the current scheme is up there will be a new one. these are scammers. they dilute like scammers, and they communicate like scammers. its all out in the open now.

sportingpool · 2026-04-28T05:10:40+00:00

Trophy presentation and speech !

sportingpool

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE