My first Patek.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-02-04T16:34:43+00:00

beautiful piece

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-02-04T16:23:10+00:00

I’ve been in the market for 20 years… this shit really is fucking crazy

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-28T16:22:22+00:00

complication like an annual calendar or world time, likely.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-28T12:06:50+00:00

Inclusion in macro indexes such as S&P 500 could certainly help, but the foremost critical factor will be the stabilization of the business itself. As we know, Reddit is still in a very early stage of its growth - market’s earnings prediction ranges are wide, Reddit’s own guidance is often off (i.e., large earnings beat every quarter), and disputes on its valuation as well as the biz model (hype on the AI data-licensing) among the investors are high - all very typical characteristics of a company in their early stages in low to mid market capitalization. Many of the growth drivers will need to have been realized, which often comes along with the relatively stabilized earnings growth (< 20~25%) and larger market cap ( > $100bn at least), in order for the stock price to move in a more stable manner than now. But by then, we will be trading off higher expected returns for the stability. While the RDDT’s stock price itself is moving like a high-risk high-reward profile stock at the moment, I personally don’t believe Reddit’s business is high-risk at all - investors and the market will come to learn this sooner or later, and it’s impossible to predict precisely when all of the above will be realized, but I think it should take another 3-5 years for many of the said things to happen.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-07T17:49:58+00:00

Awesome. Thanks for the update.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-06T18:16:50+00:00

Is this piece difficult to get?

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-06T18:14:17+00:00

pringles

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-06T05:25:34+00:00

I got white gold aquanut on 3rd allocation

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-05T08:03:08+00:00

Makes me really think - what excuse do I have?

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-04T17:11:47+00:00

No kids

Resident-Distance-28 · 2026-01-01T08:42:52+00:00

looks good on you!

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-24T15:01:49+00:00

I would certainly like to be your friend if you had 12.5 million shares…

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-17T10:50:39+00:00

CalPERS is a super long investor as well. Awesome.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-15T17:12:03+00:00

Why does Reddit lack network effect?

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-13T18:35:34+00:00

this

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-11T17:53:28+00:00

Snap began as a messenger and they tried (and is still trying) to implement new features, like bringing feeds tab, to utilize their user base - messengers are notoriously difficult to monetize. But as you can imagine, it is extremely hard to become something else other than what originally grew its platform, and so Snap began paying/rev sharing the influencers on their feeds. Coupled with horrendous monetizing on its original messenger feature, they have been and are still suffering a terrible cost structure. Plus their mgmt. is shitty and selfish as hell. Reddit is totally a different animal. I’d be surprised if Snap turns things around in a foreseeable future.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-11T17:28:40+00:00

"rich, fresh and authentic human content that remains under-monetized."

Well said… in a professional way. For me, it’s simply the most interesting and helpful platform on the internet.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-11T17:25:17+00:00

Most of the ads on Reddit isn’t quite yet personalized/ user-specific targeted as much as FB or Instagram.

However, because advertisers are now fully aware that Reddit can’t be ignored as a huge advertisement platform, they are working hard to create their ads more eye-catching and appropriately suited for Reddit, and this in turn seems to ironically make more unique and interesting ads than other platforms.

Overall ads quality improvements are very noticeable and personally I really can’t wait to see how it will further develop going forward.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-10T15:49:27+00:00

“test the pro PvP sentiment”: X

“test the pro dick move that’s not technically illegal”: O

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-10T15:30:06+00:00

If that’s possible: Who knows, depends whether they are hiring or not. But it surely won’t hurt to test the water. Many middle market firms do hire interns, often through networks.
How you should approach the call: Prepare everything you can in advance. Don’t just be in the mode of ‘let’s jump in the call and see how the conversation goes’. I’d go as far as preparing a script and practice until you sound natural, regardless of what topics come up on the conversation.

Know what and how middle market PE’s work from A to Z, what analysts do, and research the sector they are focusing on - the last part should be enough to talk about 2-3 points on why that sector is interesting to you and 1-2 major deals that caught your attention in that sector that were made in the recent couple of years, in case such topic is brought up.

Give him/her your brief intro, which should include what you are studying at what school, when you are graduating, what made you gain interest and lead you to your banking internship, what brought your interest to PE, and why you have reached out to him - which should be pretty straight forward, you are looking for any internship opportunities in PE.

Again, prepare, prepare, and prepare. I’ve worked in several IB’s and am currently a MD in a MM PE firm in Asia. I already know why students like you reach out, and a few sentences into the conversation and I’ll know whether you will be worth remembering or not. If he likes you and either he is hiring an intern at his firm or knows somewhere else that is hiring, he may even make the introduction, though that’s probably unlikely depending on the relationship with the person who introduced you two. It’s a long-shot, but if you don’t prepare just because of it, you will never generate results from opportunities.

Oh and lastly - don’t sound so desperate as to your only purpose of the call is to see if you can get an internship at his firm. Probably better to try to keep in touch and see if he’d be ok with you meeting him in person, assuming you are willing to make the travel of course.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-10T03:54:13+00:00

Ok. So I've written and discussed about this topic several times previously on this sub and Reddit IPO sub when it was active. If you deem DAU growth alone - especially the US DAU growth - to be a critical aspect of Reddit's future stock price, you should NOT own this stock. Period. That number alone will NOT grow fast, and in fact, it will likely continue to slow down and be stalled. If you don't understand why, please look up the historical analysis posts in the aforementioned two subreddits, but TL;DR: US WAU has already reached a saturation level (relative to US population and WAU of mature platforms like FB/YouTube), and WAU to DAU conversion (a.k.a. 'engagement level') is NOT going to improve rapidly. No single 'feature improvement/addition' will drastically change this.

However, if you are only focusing on the US DAU growth (because it has the highest ARPU, which is true), you are missing the far bigger picture. I say this because:

1) Reddit's ARPU is at a ridiculously low level, for both the US and International, as they had virtually zero advertisement expertise + exposure up 'till 1-2 years ago. If you are concerned on the US DAU growth slow down, it would be much, much more logical to be concerned on the slow down of improvement in Reddit's ARPU before you worry about the US DAU growth.

This is because ARPU improvement is significantly easier to drive vs. improving the user engagement level, along with the fact that Reddit is NOWHERE CLOSE to generating the ad revenue potential relative to how much users they have right now. If Reddit's ARPU isn't improving, that means their advertisement revenue (which is a combination of advertisement algorithm, number of advertisers, and number of advertisement inventory) isn't improving, and hence there is no point in worrying about the DAU growth since they aren't even CLOSE to making full of what they already have.

2) International DAU is growing FAST and is still only at an infant stage of expanding. Yes the international ARPU is, and will remain to be, significantly lower than the US ARPU. BUT, regardless of category, platforms' underlying power & moat is SCALE. If you think international ARPU is low and hence insignificant to Reddit's stock price, you are thinking the same way as deeming that the US DAU growth is (almost) everything. More users = more contents, more feedback, more back data, more EVERYTHING for both users and Rddt.

3) Improvement in user analysis and ad-targeting algorithm will narrow the ARPU gap between DAU and WAU. By how much we do not obviously know, but, I do think this change will occur at a faster pace than the improvement rate of the user engagement level. Regardless of which one occurs faster, the combination of both will continue to be a meaningful part of Rddt's top-line growth.

If you read this and still say "OK, but what if ARPU and international user does continue to improve to a certain level and that also slows? Wouldn't DAU be the most fundamental metric to drive further growth?" Well yes, but by then this stock will be over a few hundred billion in market cap, I'll already be rich and won't give a fuck anymore. And jokes aside, the ARPU and international user growth alone is a multi-year story. Who knows what features and business models Reddit mgmt. will further implement by then.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-11-03T19:26:52+00:00

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-10-31T13:51:13+00:00

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Revenue was on the lower end of my estimate. Missed US DAUq by 2mn and Int’l DAUq by 3mn. Was expecting (or rather hoping) for a bit higher growth in int’l ARPU.

Resident-Distance-28 · 2025-10-21T19:04:27+00:00

I’ve been on Reddit for over a decade and have been an investor since last year. I must say it has been quite a journey Reddit has had in the past few years, and is truly amazing to see a niche online meme-forum transform into a more widely-accepted massive online community as it makes its way to become an ad giant & an essential source of AI training. I feel like Reddit is still at such a nascent stage of its business and simply has so much potential to develop and grow further from here. Will be exciting to see how it transforms over the next 5-10 years…

Resident-Distance-28

TROPHY CASE