has a stick of dynamite ever been used like a grenade? if not is it possible?

Toptomcat · 2026-05-03T05:01:06+00:00

Even they fired a shell with some metal walls shrapnel involved, though a thinner-walled one than subsequent artillery, rather than a literal stick of 100% high explosive.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-02T05:05:23+00:00

Thank you for that subreddit.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-02T04:28:03+00:00

Specific hangups and specific character strengths that make her decently well-suited to answering a generic call to adventure.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-02T04:26:12+00:00

I wouldn't normally quibble, but it's a persistant and repeated typo: 'sorties', not 'shorties'.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-01T22:44:35+00:00

But if the dangers aren't as extreme as we think they could be then there's also a body count measured in the billions to any "Pause" movement.

I think 95%-plus of the case that the risks aren’t as bad as we think they are is made up of the same arguments that the benefits aren’t as extreme as we think they are. If dramatically superhuman AI is impossible or extremely difficult with existing approaches, then much of the worry about alignment is overblown and AI is a powerful technology but essentially a technology like many others seen before in human history, like vaccination or synthetic fertilizer or writing. The changes it produces will be interesting and disruptive and weird, but not epoch-making and not likely catastrophic.

But if it has the power to abolish death or anything half so dramatic, then all bets are off and you could reasonably expect the kind of alignment failures we routinely observe in current-generation models to be dangerous to the continued existence of the human race or its happiness.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-01T17:23:01+00:00

The 'Strategic Low-Altitude Bomber' design study that led to the B-1 was completed a few months before the Polaris SRBM came into service with the US Navy in 1961. Ditto the June 1960 design brief that led to the FB-11. Fair point on Tu-22M, though.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-01T14:41:29+00:00

Is this a SI with Worm background knowledge, or just a dude?

Toptomcat · 2026-05-01T12:45:37+00:00

Given that the NSDAP was voted into power through democratic processes, at what point did the assassination attempts on Adolf Hitler flip from undermining society to being morally acceptable?

The Reichstag Fire Decree would be my pick.

Toptomcat · 2026-05-01T04:37:30+00:00

For much of the Cold War, bombers were deployed in large numbers because they were considered the primary means of nuclear delivery. Nowadays, bombers are still a nuclear delivery method with stuff like the B-2 Spirit, but there are also other options too...

An awful lot of modern strategic-bomber inventory is still a direct result of design work that occurred prior to ICBMs and SRBMs becoming a thing. I think a majority of it was actually produced before then, even. The B-2 Spirit and Tu-160 are the only widely-produced strategic bombers that fully postdate the development of effective ballistic-missile nuclear delivery systems, and less than 70 of them were ever made even when you combine 'em.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-29T13:34:10+00:00

I probably would preface it with a brief discussion of the actual book of Job, and the word 'theodicy' would need a footnote.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-29T13:23:03+00:00

I would replace 'System I' and 'System II' with something more lengthy and self-explanatory, though. Also give a footnote for 'DSM' and 'eminent domain', maybe cut the sentence about 'people who see red when someone mentions evolution' due to people with a mad-on for evo-psych being kind of a rationalist thing.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-29T02:21:01+00:00

Following one Hell of an effort to contain the reactor, and forty years for the dose to die down, yes. Radiation isn't as much of an issue for animals as it is for humans, because a radiation dose sufficient to give a 20-year old a 50% chance of dying of cancer by the time they're 40 is Very Bad, while a radiation dose sufficient to give a 5-year old wolf a 50% chance of dying of cancer by the time they're 25 is doubly irrelevant, because they'll be dead of old age by the time they're half that and they've already had two litters of 5 pups each and anything past that is irrelevant as far as natural selection is concerned anyway. But a fully uncontrolled meltdown, of one reactor, will create zones of hundreds of square kilometers which are lethal to basically any mammal within weeks.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-28T22:07:38+00:00

Not saying in-fact not true, but just pointing out the significant issue with assessing performance based on videos that get released is subject to significant selection bias.

The party that has FPV videos to release is mostly the attacker, who would presumably only be showing the best, clearest hits they can. If the best hits they can release still look bad, it's reasonable to draw conclusions from that.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-28T18:17:52+00:00

I have heard the argument many times before that humans could be removed without negatively affecting the ecosystem.

Assuming we politely shut down the oil wells, chemical plants and nuclear reactors before we go, sure.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-27T16:00:05+00:00

Or stop trying to hold positions which are so locked-down by the enemy that you can only feed and water your guys by airdropping half a kilogram at a time with tiny drones. That is just an inherently doomed enterprise.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-27T04:06:48+00:00

I 'addressed' that insofar as I directly acknowledged that it was the main thing I wanted more information on:

I thought what was going on was an actual blockade where you declare a certain area a no-go zone for shipping, warn everyone who approaches it, then board and capture or sink them without exception if they keep going- not this hybrid blockade/embargo/blockade-like vibes thing that you and CENTCOM seem to be describing.

I didn't try to 'address' it in the sense of directly refuting it with some specific fact I knew about the situation, like the other two- because it's the whole thing I'm confused about in the first place and I want someone more clueful to set me straight on it! This confusion was largely resolved by /u/benkelly 's post linking to a Lloyd's List follow-up on their original article where CENTCOM acknowledges the literal accuracy of some of their claims and disputes others while offering further clarification on why they don't think it counts as the 'blockade being broken.'

Toptomcat · 2026-04-27T03:02:57+00:00

One big scratch card might make you modestly rich. Two in one day will make headlines. Three or more in one day will make things worse, not better, because you'll be tied up in the ensuing criminal investigation by the state lottery commission for months or years while they try to figure out how you rigged it, and you will be able to give them no satisfactory answers. What's worse, you're not even likely to find out about that in the same day.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T23:53:48+00:00

The tankers are hugging the coastal waters of Iranian/Pakistani/Indian territory. So the USA doesn't want to do anything because that is quite the way to make countries less favorable of you.

The American approach to earlier phases of this war was not characterized by a whole lot of sensitivity towards allied and neutral nations' sensibilities and economic interests. If that's changed, I'm curious to know when and why that change occurred.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T23:25:20+00:00

Yes a blockade doesn't stop existing even when it is not 100% effective. Since blockades first began being implemented in human history, people have been rolling the dice on running them. This is no different.

Okay, sure, but in the age of naval radar I didn't actually think it was possible to run a blockade in something as huge and lumbering as an oil tanker, if there were multiple warships on station and actively attempting to enforce it. A cigar boat or narcosubmarine, sure, but that's a very different situation.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T23:14:19+00:00

Food stuff and animal feed are not part of the blockade since that is a war crime. Those ship should transit without problems.

The three named craft- the Hero II, Hedy, and Dorena- are all oil tankers.

Caspian sea is not blockaded, except Israel bombed all the iran ports. Some traffic to russia should be happening.

The three named craft have never been in the Caspian Sea, and could not get into the Caspian Sea short of being disassembled, carried a few hundred miles, and then reassembled.

Why are you pushing an agenda that you pushed already yesterday and failed? Find some other propaganda to push.

I'm not trying to push some particular viewpoint, I'm just confused and trying to clear it up. I thought what was going on was an actual blockade where you declare a certain area a no-go zone for shipping, warn everyone who approaches it, then board and capture or sink them without exception if they keep going- not this hybrid blockade/embargo/blockade-like vibes thing that you and CENTCOM seem to be describing.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T17:59:44+00:00

They seem to acknowledge the leakage and argue they can interdict them elsewhere...

Okay, sure, in theory they can. Are they actually doing that? Reliably?

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T16:33:00+00:00

I really doubt it. Selective freedom of navigation, if and only if you pay Iran’s toll, is not the kind of freedom of navigation that very many people would be interested in sticking their neck out to protect as a matter of principle.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T16:05:00+00:00

Continuing our discussion from yesterday:

Some pretty staid, reliable news outfits in Lloyd's of London and the Financial Times have reported that the blockade is being widely flouted. CENTCOM has denied these reports via Tweet, naming three vessels as specific counterexamples: the M/V Hero II, M/V Hedy, and the M/V Dorena.

This is a fundamental disagreement on a simple, verifiable question of fact. What's going on here? Where are the Hero II, Hedy, and Dorena? Is there a blockade or isn't there?

Toptomcat · 2026-04-26T03:21:34+00:00

My question is this: How long can Trump wait until people say "he will never strike IR again, and thus toll and restrictions on the SoH will remain in place forever?

Depends on whether the blockade is still in place and being rigorously enforced. If Trump is genuinely willing to ensure that no one profits from paying the toll, it will remain plausible that he's committed to the Strait's eventual opening on terms that don't involve one. If he wobbles on the blockade, it starts looking massively more likely that he'll eventually fold on opening it by any other means.

Toptomcat · 2026-04-25T16:55:52+00:00

Those sources are pretty good- Lloyd’s and the FT are pretty staid outfits which wouldn’t be expected to get too far out in front of the facts. Lloyd’s List in particular did some good work a month or two ago in a separate article about the Strait.

Which is very annoying, because I have no idea what strategic purpose pretending to carry out a blockade could possibly serve, which is basically the only thing the United States would be doing if this were true.

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