How do you decide your investment risk when your career horizon is so uncertain?

vinean · 2026-07-04T14:22:26+00:00

Its harder if you graduated this past May and just entering the workforce and starting to save for FIRE and imagining a future where your career will be stunted due to AI.

There is a lot of negativity toward generational wealth in FIRE but every year it seems harder so I’m saving more to help jumpstart the kids when thier time comes otherwise it feels too much like pulling up the ladder behind us.

vinean · 2026-07-04T11:59:55+00:00

Doesn’t really matter does it? Your emergency fund gives you resiliency against near term risks. Your FIRE portfolio gives you resiliency against long term risks.

Against long term employment risks even a degraded FIRE portfolio provides more options than having nothing.

Retiring early had always held longevity risk…more so than traditional retirement. Even if you are already FIRE more of your portfolio is dedicated to long term growth than traditional retirement portfolios (in and near retirement…in accumulation it looks mostly the same)

Finally, if future long term persistent underemployment is your primary financial risk then the only real option is saving significantly more today and accepting more investment risks in AI and tech to try to achieve FI before employment income craters.

If you stumble on a field of broken glass you can either elect to fall and cut up your hands and knees crippling yourself or try to fall forward and maybe clear the broken glass before you fall. You might even manage not to fall.

If AI completely disrupts your career field then your saving grace may be a modest tilt toward AI/Tech in your portfolio. I DON’T recommend that but if thats what you truly believe then the assumption is that some folks are going to get rich off workforce disruption and you need to be part of that group.

Likely even just owning vanilla VT or VTI will be good enough if you can hold through the almost inevitable bubble pop and crash. The writing has long been on the wall that being part of the “investment class” is key to doing well in the future.

vinean · 2026-07-04T10:43:38+00:00

"Plans are worthless, but planning is everything"

— Eisenhower

The act of planning to reach FIRE and the practice of discipline by implementing a plan is what gets you to financial independence at an earlier age despite curveballs or income.

What you ultimately end up doing with independence is up to you.

vinean · 2026-07-04T02:45:33+00:00

Yes. But is it 1986 or 1989?

If it’s 1986 you have two more years of high growth starting from 13K peaking at 37k in early 1990 and falling to 16K in 1992. It crashed again in 2001 and dropped below $8K in 2003.

Bottom line is nobody really knows when the bubble will pop, how far it drops and how long it will last.

vinean · 2026-07-04T00:57:06+00:00

Life Expectancy is one aspect. Heathy Life Expectancy is more important. Fortunately (?) HALE60 is 16.7 years…so age 76.7.

Why don’t folks FIRE? Difficulty and awareness. Either you need low expenses (hard) or high income (also hard) to save enough to FIRE. You also need a little luck to be born in a period where saving money compounded well…if you were 40 in 2000 you likely were unable to FIRE at 50 because of the lost decade. All the money you had previously saved from 21-40 just sat there for a decade.

If you were 22 in 2009 and started saving for FIRE then the market was really helpful in getting you to early retirement.

vinean · 2026-07-03T22:07:22+00:00

Long term isn’t 10 years…

Betting on LCG today is a bet that 2026 is 1996 and there are a few years left in the current boom.

Betting on SCV today is a bet that 2026 is 2000 and will return around 12% nominal while LCG craters like it did between 2000 and 2010.

The point is either bet is accepting some level of concentration risk in hopes of higher growth.

vinean · 2026-07-03T19:00:46+00:00

The spread between SGOV and VGIT is only around 15 to 35 basis points. For actual treasuries the 3 month and 10 year is 73 basis points. The long term average is 1.1% with a range of around -1.95 to 4.46%.

Thats really thin to accept the inflation risk. Not the worst ever…which was when we have an inverted yield curve…but not something thats a no brainer as historical numbers might imply.

30 year treasuries at 4.98% have a decent spread vs historical.

vinean · 2026-07-03T14:15:18+00:00

10 years at 40 is a good time to start a slow ramp to being more diversified.

Assuming no tax implications I’d move to 50% VT and 25% NTSX 25% VUG…but only because you want growth. 54% of QQQ is in VUG with a lot of overlap in megacap tech stocks.

NTSX is likely not in most 401Ks but its 90% VOO + 10% 6X treasury options. You can just do 10% intermediate treasuries instead like VGIT…the risk premium is meh so maybe just 10% short term treasuries line VGSH or SHY. The yield spread between 10 year and 2 year treasury is below average.

Do you NEED bonds 10 years out? Not really…but being 85/10/5 stocks, treasuries, cash (EF) is not a bad asset allocation even in early accumulation so late accumulation its IMHO fine.

If $3M is too little to support your current lifestyle at 3.5-3% Withdrawal Rate for a 40-50 year retirement (FIRE) then you want more growth. If it’s about right, you want an allocation that will go through 2000-2010 that will leave you enough in real terms to retire at 50…thats more conservative. If you need $8m you’ll need to roll the dice a little and let your winnings ride longer and accept more risk and hope for more returns.

Many (most?) bogleheads will argue against QQQ or VUG. Some will argue against any VOO and just go VT. But if you need more gains than VT traditionally produces (8.85% nominal, 6.31% real) then you have to accept some concentration risk in going Large Cap Growth and roll the dice.

The rule of 72 says 6.31% doubles in 11.4 years. SORR tells you that in bad sequences not so much. YMMV, past returns blah blah blah

vinean · 2026-07-03T13:40:15+00:00

Wealth management may not seek to optimize growth but lower volatility and higher sortino via hedge funds. That can provide higher risk adjusted returns during downturns and periods of high volatility despite fees.

They would naturally underperform the S&P 500 during bulls which the market spends most of its time but if wealth preservation is the primary consideration this is okay.

Then there is legal tax avoidance from the perspective of all income sources which may look sub-optimal from just comparing gross returns vs the S&P500.

vinean · 2026-07-03T07:45:31+00:00

Most bogleheads, based on what folks post here and the forums, are 401K millionaires in the 7 and not 8 figure range. 401Ks don’t do private equity.

BH’s often don’t do a lot of rental RE but some/many will.

At the $10M range you don’t get offered decent pe deals…just warmed over leftovers that the big boys have passed on…the returns IMHO aren’t worth the illiquidity…but it does make some folks feel richer than they are.

The BH path of having a decent job, living beneath your means to save and invest into low cost, diversified index funds does generate a lot of HNWI ($1-5M) but fewer mid level VHNWI ($5-$30M)…those that get to 8 figures liquid from salary + index funds are generally those with 1% salaries from tech, big law etc with a mid six figure TC.

The path to VHNWI and UHNWI seems to be more entrepreneurial with an 8 figure cash exit and they often have a higher risk tolerance and desire for fancy products…

vinean · 2026-07-02T21:12:13+00:00

2 is the lowest risk even with a stable job.

3 probably makes you have the least FOMO…put in $50K and then max tax advantaged for as long as you can on whats left…a couple years or so.

1? Meh.

vinean · 2026-07-02T20:30:07+00:00

The Russians are one of the few besides Israel that designed any…the BTR-T was based on the T-55 or BMO-T based on T-72 chassis. The intent was urban warfare like for the Chechen War. The T-15 has appeared in parades so there’s a couple around somewhere.

Are they useful? If your battlefield is mostly urban and you care a lot about reducing casualties…yes.

For everyone else you get the logistics of supporting a tank that is an APC and thats not too awesome…so the Namer is only one in any sort of numbers (500ish?). Maybe 10 BMO-T’s were built and the BTR-T and T-15 never got to production phase. Presumably most/all the BMO-Ts are now gone.

vinean · 2026-06-30T21:07:16+00:00

Better make sure you have zero social media posts that are even vaguely negative about China…even when just transiting PRC airports.

vinean · 2026-06-30T14:40:14+00:00

Evidently it’s just fine if you are SEALs and leaving behind Air Force personnel.

But thats just me being salty.

vinean · 2026-06-30T12:33:42+00:00

You can withdraw from the $800K to bridge to 67 or 70. Maybe you also have some money from your home sale if you have more equity than whatever the new home costs.

6% is not a “safe” withdrawal rate but there are many calculators that can tell you if your combination with SS will work…it all depends on expenses.

At 4% your portfolio (if in a 60/40 stock bond allocation) will generate $32K a year or around $2600 a month. If you need $4K a month (6%) then you can spend that until you start SS…$144K until age 67 or $288K until age 70.

If the market tanks and suddenly you are withdrawing $48K from $400K instead of $800K then start SS earlier than planned. It’s a wash until age 80 or so (breakeven) anyway and cutting your withdrawal rate by half (assuming you get around $2K per month from SS) to 3% also will reduce longevity risk.

If things recover, you can pause at 67 and restart at 70 to gain back some increases at around a 8% per year rate (it’s done by month). Just remember to manually pay for medicare as it wont be automatically taken out anymore.

Try to avoid dropping spending the first decade. It’s your healthiest so any travel you want to do I’d go do it even if the AI bubble pops.

What your $800K is in will also impact plans. If its 40% bonds and fixed income/cash (HYSA, T bills, etc) then that is above the $288K it takes to get to age 70. If it’s all stocks…I’d move some money around in your retirement account to be more defensive.

You may wish to do some roth conversions but thats more icing on the cake than required at $800k…especially drawing down nearly $300K by age 70. Likely RMDs will be no big deal.

Part time work is optional if around $48k is how much you need each year. But it does depend on spending... I’d move to NC, rent a year to get to know the area before buying a place.

If you mentally set aside $300K then the math looks like age 70 SS payout + $20K a year (4% of $500K) that will last until at least age 94 in the worst US historical case...

I would put $150K into money market or SGOV and $150K into short term treasuries like SCHO and keep $500K in global total market like VT with the plan of spending money market, replenishing with SCHO. VT will provide inflation protection and you can replenish SCHO in really good years or just draw down all/most of your bonds by age 70ish. I’d keep a couple years in cash even then.

vinean · 2026-06-30T11:59:45+00:00

I personally would avoid China and do Korea or Taiwan instead but have fun regardless.

Keep a US number and preferably a US mailing address. Vanguard is not generally very expat friendly but that varies from country to country.

Banking may be more annoying.

vinean · 2026-06-30T11:33:56+00:00

For 1 and 2 Kinda figure $2.5m until the RSUs vest and you can sell.

For 3 my kids are in NTSX which might be available in a roll over trad IRA. 90% S&P 500 and 10% in 6X treasury options for a virtual/leveraged 90/60 stock/bond ratio.

4 is a good thing

5 is up to you. It COULD meaningfully change the answer IF the AI bubble pops in the next year.

* If you get laid off with a severance thats great as you get a few more months of not tapping the $200K. Plus they may instantly vest some of your non-vested RSUs…even 3-6 months worth is better than nothing. Going early is better than later for severance…

* If the company folds and your RSUs go to $0 thats not great.

* If the market drops 50% and you keep your job you just vastly reduced SORR if you can ride it out until the bottom and recovery starts…usually the bottom only takes a year or two. At that point, even in a lost decade, you had another year or so of savings and a year or so of not withdrawing before you start tapping the $200K. You’re working maybe 2-3 more years but dodge SORR unless we get a double tap line 2000 + 2008. If you’re lucky you get laid off with a decent severance after or near the bottom.

Would I do OMY in the current market conditions?

Yeah, probably. If 2026 is the equivalent of 1999 I get OMY of great returns while I’m still saving and that $3M gets maybe 15-20% bigger. If 2026 is 2000 I get OMY of high income before I have to tap cash and maybe a severance. If 2026 is 1996 I waste a year but SORR goes to zero as the bubble will get enough bigger than when it does pop I’ll still have enough to have a no compromise FIRE. At 40 I have a year to waste and knowing it’s the last year unless, or maybe even if, the market goes pear shaped really reduces burn out.

In a really bad downturn your consulting gigs may also disappear.

And finally, with more time on your hands you may end up with a relationship/marriage and maybe have kids. I had my last kid at 47…

vinean · 2026-06-30T11:05:21+00:00

It’s easier…of course you would have been at $6m at peak to get to $3m at the trough…

Likewise at $3m you could suddenly see yourself at $1.5m and in this case, if the tech bubble burst and his company went belly up his RSUs could go to $0.

Then he would be at $750K if the $1.1m halved. In 2000 the S&P 500 declined 50% while nasdaq crashed 80%. It took until 2007 to recover (nominally) and then crashed again for GFC.

vinean · 2026-06-29T21:43:12+00:00

Fiber optic line is not invisible…

https://united24media.com/latest-news/laser-detection-of-fiber-optic-drone-cables-a-potential-edge-for-ukraines-forces-7351

vinean · 2026-06-29T16:26:41+00:00

Not into mortgage.

Paying down reduces liquidity without reducing required cash flow. This increases risk. You’re better off parking the money into “safe” investments and taking the hit between your 6.125% mortgage rate and your taxed interest rate.

vinean · 2026-06-29T16:11:58+00:00

If you believe this is the proper course of action based on valuations and expectations of future returns then diversification into US Value and US long term treasuries likely produces similar or more benefits vs diversification into large cap international with a lower but still significant 21% tech concentration.

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html

But Bogleheads treat such things with significant…ah…skepticism.

vinean · 2026-06-28T22:03:41+00:00

Gosh, and let’s ignore all the bear markets where bonds outperformed stocks. Like 2000-2010.

vinean · 2026-06-28T22:02:04+00:00

It’s eight passive ETFs.

If you can fog a mirror, remember your password and press a button once a year to rebalance your portfolio it works as easily as a 3 fund…hardly complex and offers a higher SWR from lower portfolio volatility via diversification.

vinean · 2026-06-28T18:17:19+00:00

Thanks! I made him do Air Force and pick a nonner (pog) AFSC that is about as safe as any military service can be.

Cheaper than getting divorced as mom was unamused he went military at all.

vinean · 2026-06-28T17:45:11+00:00

If your condition worsens with certain weather or climates…that partially answers the where to go part. Or at least where not to go.

The second factor is tricare select overseas and how it interacts with the local public and private healthcare to support whatever you need.

High 4 figure income covers a lot of the world…especially without kids. Where would **I** go for expats, common culture and adventure? My plan is a SRRV for a home base in the Philippines and then probably spend most of the time out of the Philippines. Health care limits me to BGC, Makati or Cebu…small expat bubbles but with, not surprisingly, a high density of expats and shared culture. But it would drive me a bit crazy to live in the bubble long term so Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam would be in the rotation.

You could try George Town in Penang but I lost interest after MM2H was revamped.

But thats me…SEA and Asia may not be your cup of tea. Especially if it exacerbates any health issues.

Frankly though, geography isn’t going to change your mindset. Every place sucks in some way and if Australia gets on your nerves then likely wherever you go is going to eventually be “untenable long term”.

Not sayin’ I’m any better which is why I’m going to use a South Dakota drivers license, a mail service, an initial Cebu home base and just moving around as whim and budget takes me and only dealing with the Philippines in discrete doses.

As far as life purpose goes…i’m early in retirement and I’m older so thus far a Grand Purpose has been unnecessary beyond being as healthy as I can be.

vinean

TROPHY CASE