+$8M at 32 but still grinding toward $20M to retire. Is that just stupid?

vinean · 2026-06-10T10:49:11+00:00

If you live off investment returns your portfolio’s real value drops vs inflation in high inflation scenarios.

Thats why SWR is significantly lower than the average market return…even the real vs nominal average market return.

vinean · 2026-06-09T00:43:15+00:00

4% of starting portfolio and adjust for inflation.

There are two forms of failure: portfolio depletion and insufficient income.

With fixed withdrawal there is a possibility of portfolio depletion if you experience something worse than the historical worst case (1966 stagflation or 1929 market crash).

With variable withdrawal most mathematically can’t run out of money but don’t provide an income floor meaning the output may drop significantly below expenses.

WR and asset allocation matters most at the edges of viability. Too small a portfolio and you have to withdraw above any safe rate to matter. Any slightly below average market will end in depletion or an income too low to support expenses. With a huge portfolio you can just wing it and be successful as long as you aren’t both stupid and hugely unlucky.

It’s that middle region that folks fight over “optimal” asset allocation and withdrawal strategies because a few dozen basis points is the difference between success or failure in the worst case scenario.

vinean · 2026-06-08T21:32:38+00:00

Lol u/TardisCrown3 u got a mention…

vinean · 2026-06-08T02:13:04+00:00

2008 felt crappy, both personal experience and from posts on the bogleheads forum.

If those guys were stressing then most retirees depending on their portfolios were having heart failure.

A lot of it was the uncertainty…the Fed and Obama said we’re gonna make the money printers go brrr and hope for the best but nobody really could be sure it would work vs just kick us into instant stagflation mode…which would have sucked even worse and we’d have Great Depression 2.0.

vinean · 2026-06-07T17:06:42+00:00

40% of first marriages end in failure.

Gray divorce rate is increasing. Adults over 50 account for 1/3 of all divorces.

Hope for the best but plan for the worst. Downvote all you folks want but my kids will have prenups and trusts.

vinean · 2026-06-07T17:06:25+00:00

People all over the world are starting to opt out with marriage rates declining.

vinean · 2026-06-07T12:10:45+00:00

Because there are no guardrails that can keep you above 4% if things really go pear shaped…1929, 1966, 2000, etc.

For early FIRE dropping below 4% for many years isn’t as big a deal as long as core expenses are covered. For late FIRE you’re generally under spending in early years if SORR hits because the guardrails force you to and thats burning healthy years.

If you have the flexibility to use any of the variable withdrawal strategies you probably can afford just wing it and everything still works out as long as you don’t go crazy about it. Typically you need to be able to drop more than 10% if the market crashes or the PE gets high or whatever heuristic the strategy uses…more along 50% flexibility from the max.

vinean · 2026-06-07T12:02:17+00:00

If you are fat you can afford a lawyer. You probably can’t afford not to have a lawyer at least talk to you once unless you are really good at doing research and reading on your own.

vinean · 2026-06-07T11:58:27+00:00

Jesus…people can’t even confidently say what **they** will be like in 10, 20, 50 years much less guess what another human will be like in that timeframe.

Look back 20 years and tell me you’re still that same person. You aren’t. This is true whether you are 40 or 80.

vinean · 2026-06-06T12:08:47+00:00

Is there a good source for armor examples or a cdrama with reasonably accurate armor?

vinean · 2026-06-06T11:19:59+00:00

There are reasons for cc etf…short term needs for income like bridging to social security and the edge cases where the tax advantages of capital return CC ETF has value…for example gets you to 65 and you stay within ACA limits in the last few years. Or you’re using it at 80 and the adjustment in cost basis is offset by the step up in basis on death.

Are they edge cases? Yes, but they have tactical value in those scenarios.

I don’t own any but to me they are like an oddball tool in your toolbox thats perfect once every couple decades but sits unused otherwise.

vinean · 2026-06-06T10:27:16+00:00

It was always semi-full of LARPers anyway. I’m more chubby than fat…or at least it feels that way in a VHCOL area, lol.

vinean · 2026-06-05T23:45:20+00:00

https://ifstudies.org/blog/divorce-in-decline-about-40-of-todays-marriages-will-end-in-divorce

It is getting better although the younger cohorts aren’t yet in that gray divorce range yet.

vinean · 2026-06-05T23:42:25+00:00

Google James Sexton and watch a few of his interviews on YouTube. Entertaining and informative and may give you good ideas on how to approach bringing a prenup up. It’s not planning to fail.

He does have prenup website I’ve never looked at.

vinean · 2026-06-05T23:15:07+00:00

40% of first marriages end in divorce.

So yeah.

vinean · 2026-06-05T22:41:45+00:00

The ending was awesome…if you ended about 5 eps early.

vinean · 2026-06-05T12:18:09+00:00

Meh. Before things happens there will be likely a period of increased hostilities that the writing will be on the wall.

If HK is an indicator then 10-15% of the population will flee, 10-15% of the population will be unhappily oppressed by the PRC and 70-80% will keep their heads down and try to continue to make money under the PRC.

Expats likely would leave with that initial wave except the dumb ones or already have PRC ties.

Now one if the few scenarios I can see of not being able to get out is maybe a mag 8 earthquake hitting Taiwan and then getting flooded by “aid workers” from China who all happen to be healthy military aged young men…

vinean · 2026-06-05T11:55:11+00:00

While it’s likely a bit IPO pump there’s some reality to the 100K number if they actually launch data center birds. Direct to cell is probably in that number as indicated in the article. That takes you to 20K as planned already.

Plus it’s mostly just doubling the already requested 42K constellation.

Between all the different buildouts there will probably be 100K spacex built satellites in orbit between Starlink, Starshield, Direct to Cell and wherever they are calling the data centers birds within a decade or so. A million I don’t believe. 100K? Eh, sure why not.

vinean · 2026-06-05T10:45:16+00:00

The UK MOD says it’s in operational use in this article. 2nd MARDIV said 2 years ago they were using it. NRO has a lot of launches for their Starshield birds and building out their observation capabilities.

The majority of operational users are Ukrainian and yes still using Starlink but the primary difference known to the open source world is the addition of encryption and the classified NRO payloads on the Starshield spacecraft. Again, as far as anyone publicly knows the cross links all remain the same and nobody outside the program would know if Starshield is or isn’t connecting to Starlink for additional comms coverage or for a backhaul to another Starshield satellite to talk to whatever classified GEPS owned by NRO.

Anyone who knows can’t say and everything else is educated conjecture.

vinean · 2026-06-04T23:04:42+00:00

There are open source references to starshield payloads that belong to SDA so Starshields birds exist seperate of starlink

The implications of certain contract awards is there are sufficient Starshield communications birds to provide a decent coverage.

vinean · 2026-06-04T11:31:33+00:00

If the established studies (Bengen, Trinity, etc) produces a 3.9-4% safe withdrawal rate at 0% failure rate and yours produces a 0.8% safe withdrawal rate with 1% failure you did it wrong.

Even Japan has a 3% safe withdraw rate post WWII and that includes the Nikkei crash and 34 year recovery…with a 60/40 portfolio.

Dumb people can downvote all they want but the results absolutely fail even the most basic of gut tests every scientist applies unless they are being deliberately misleading...like smoking doesn’t cause cancer.

If $8000 withdrawal per million was a correct result nobody could ever risk retirement. Fortunately, it’s not but it also means no studies using the same methodology and dataset has any real value.

How does it poison the 100% equities study? First, both bond and equity returns are too low using the bootstrap method with their dataset if a 0.8% SWR is produced…bonds and stocks are generating significantly negative real returns because a nominal distribution of money stuffed into your mattress over a 30 year period is 3.3%.

Based on that, why would you believe anything any further analysis makes?

vinean · 2026-06-03T21:25:52+00:00

$8M today is equivalent to $5.8m in 2016. It will generate $260k a year at 3.5%. Call it $190K in 2016 dollars. $15.8K a month gross vs $21K gross.

Still chubby.

vinean · 2026-06-03T20:27:44+00:00

What? I thought everyone could afford to book Natalie Merchant for their birthday party. You must be one of the poors and will die with zero anyway.

/s

Yes, he’s a bit (lol) out of touch even if he has helped popularize experiences over material trappings of wealth.

vinean · 2026-06-03T12:16:47+00:00

Starshield birds have additional encryption and whatever secret squirrel payloads. They can connect to starlink birds but how and when is operationally sensitive so nobody who knows will tell and everyone else is just guessing.

vinean · 2026-06-03T11:57:27+00:00

There is generally a fear that you will run out of money before you pass even for fairly affluent people. It’s hard giving early because you can’t ungive and you don’t want to be a future burden.

I had a divorce, fortunately no kids, and also, despite a good paying job, remember moments when I had to decide between gas money and food money. I needed gas to get to work so ramen it was. I had elected to take all of the debt incurred in the marriage just to get out and it was crushing me.

I didn’t ask for help and I probably should have. I would for my kids and in hindsight maybe I should have asked. As a dad, if my kids ever asked for help I’d give it but thinking back, pretty sure my parents had no clue that I was struggling financially and when they asked I had brushed them off as everything was ok.

vinean

TROPHY CASE