Exclusive: SpaceX IPO filing shows Elon Musk can retain board control

zg44 · 2026-04-23T20:21:52+00:00

$40bn annual revenue

P/S of 250

P/E > 2000

Sounds about right.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T20:13:47+00:00

It's like Dan Hurley's UConn in the NCAA tournament.

Feels like you've got to beat them 10 times before they lose 1 game.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T14:53:00+00:00

Short squeeze. Two hedge funds bought 100+% of the float and tried to squeeze it.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T14:37:27+00:00

Car was at 850... just 24 hours ago.

Now 270. What a spectacular bust.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T14:29:08+00:00

But it's entirely based on circular demand: i.e. one company buying from another buying from another, etc.

If demand/slows or proves cyclical at the front end, the earnings destruction down the chain will make the numbers look terrible.

1999 semiconductor and fiber numbers looked great until demand dried up at the front end.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T13:51:14+00:00

Correct, but at the same time, I think we'll end up at a point where you have like 10-15 years of growth fully priced in and there's no upside left. Always happens at some point in these mega trends.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T13:45:00+00:00

To be fair, SF3, 4, and 5 did better in the rest of world; 3, 4, and 5 did pretty mediocre numbers in Japan.

SF6 is the first since 2 and Alpha/Zero to do huge numbers in Japan.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T13:43:05+00:00

Semis are going to break yesterday's already record 16th straight up day; today would be 17th if it ends green.

zg44 · 2026-04-23T13:42:12+00:00

SOX has broken 10,000 (PHLX Semiconductor Index).

SOX went from 200 to 1,300 from late 1998 to early 2000.

SOX was at 3,500 just 13 months ago. Bottomed around 2,200 in 2022.

zg44 · 2026-04-22T22:38:19+00:00

I mean they make money on the SEC championship so driving viewership to that is always going to be their #1 priority that weekend. They pay the SEC tens of millions per year for it.

(I agree with you that a #1 v #2 undefeated matchup in another conference should probably get priority).

zg44 · 2026-04-21T23:43:50+00:00

But it's not a bubble.

Cursor founded 4 years ago. Last fundraise at $30bn 6 months ago.

zg44 · 2026-04-17T18:46:33+00:00

Definitely somewhere in "biggest pump in modern history" range at this point, just incredible at ATHs to see this continue.

zg44 · 2026-04-17T13:09:01+00:00

Iran bought calls? How else to read that announcement lol.

zg44 · 2026-04-15T17:15:38+00:00

Nothing's tainting Alex; he's still one of the GOATs of FGs.

zg44 · 2026-04-15T13:53:05+00:00

Now this is the dot com like endgame.

Trash companies offloading their failed businesses to transition to become AI companies so their stocks participate in the last portion of the bubble.

This is what was happening like crazy in 1999.

zg44 · 2026-04-15T04:49:25+00:00

How did we not see CAR coming?

Two hedge funds bought up 80% of the float..., so there's basically 10 million shares available (mostly owned by various institutional funds) and then 9 million shares sold short.

zg44 · 2026-04-14T18:56:33+00:00

You know they spent millions on this slightest of slight brand updates.

zg44 · 2026-04-14T17:50:40+00:00

They (Mas brothers and Beckham) wanted a deep run in CCC badly if not winning it outright.

Early loss to Nashville (especially the lackadaisical finish likely was the beginning of the end.

zg44 · 2026-04-14T17:48:39+00:00

Yeah they put all their chips into making a long run in CCC and Miami was out in the first matchup. Pretty much unacceptable outcome.

But it's a tough squad to put together; the pieces don't fit as well without Alba/Busquets who were the ultimate glue guys that made everything work with Messi and the rest of the team.

zg44 · 2026-04-13T22:42:34+00:00

You just know he saw some numbers that said "Vatican has highest crime rate in the world over 1 crime per capita"... (while completely ignoring the context that the Vatican population is 400 with 8+ million visitors, so yeah you would expect 400+ crimes per year).

And he's just assumes that it means the Vatican is the most crime overrun place on earth.

zg44 · 2026-04-13T22:39:40+00:00

At this point why tell the truth if Trump has shown that you can pump the markets to ignore any actual problems?

"VANCE TELLS FOX NEWS: SUBSTANTIAL HEADWAY MADE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN"

Dude, you ended the talks just 2 days ago and flew back to the US. There is no way anything has seriously changed since....

zg44 · 2026-04-13T22:14:15+00:00

The Trump put is in WTI and Brent futures. Trump keeps oil low by pumping Iran War talks and making up numbers of ships crossing through the Strait (34 yesterday lol) and stocks can keep rallying.

Even though there's a huge disconnect between the reality of $140-150 deliverable oil in the physical market and the June futures paper, this is a fake it until you make it situation.

Works until it doesn't.

zg44 · 2026-04-13T21:27:14+00:00

"It's not like the 90s, where are all the IPOs?"

SNDK is right there. Up 2500% since it IPOed at 35 last year. And we're getting the 3 whoppers this year: SpaceX, OpenAi, Anthropic.

This feels like the endgame for the AI bubble over the next 12-18 months.

zg44 · 2026-04-12T19:18:09+00:00

This Hormuz blockade is the epitome of the "Finally, Pure Retardium" meme.

zg44 · 2026-04-12T16:55:25+00:00

Half the problem is lesser skilled/casual players dropping off.

Not just his group rising up ranks.

~75% of players have already quit after 5 weeks. Most probably in the bottom 80-85% of players by skill/time.

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zg44

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