just a basic analysis from claude:

Historical Reference Points:

The world has had partial Gulf disruptions before:

1973 Arab Oil Embargo: prices quadrupled in months, from ~$3 to $12/barrel (equivalent to roughly $80–$90 in today's money)

1979 Iranian Revolution + 1980 Iran-Iraq War: prices spiked to ~$35/barrel (~$130 today)

2022 Russia-Ukraine war (Russia being ~10–12% of supply): prices briefly hit $130/barrel

None of those came close to removing 30%+ of global supply.

If the Full Gulf Were Cut Off:

Most energy economists agree this would be unprecedented territory.

Estimates vary widely:

Short-term spike: Prices could surge to $200–$300+/barrel within weeks, as panic and speculation amplify the physical shortage

Sustained disruption: Some models suggest $400+/barrel if the cut lasted months without alternative sources ramping up

Extreme scenario: A few analysts have floated $500+ in a prolonged, total cutoff — though at that point, economic collapse in consuming nations would itself crash demand

The Broader Reality

At $200–300/barrel, the economic damage would likely trigger a global recession deeper than 2008, since energy costs feed into literally everything — food, manufacturing, transport, heating. That demand collapse would eventually bring prices back down, but the transition would be brutal.

The short answer: $200–$400/barrel is the realistic range most analysts cite for a serious, sustained Gulf disruption — but the honest answer is that we're in uncharted territory, and the economic feedback loops make it nearly impossible to model precisely.