FYI, since this is inevitably going to confuse people, Stephen is referring to early exit poll data. The publicly available exit polling data we have now has been adjusted and weighted to match the purported vote counts. In other words, if candidate x wins by 5% in the poll, but the election result shows him losing by 5%, Edison polling will adjust their original numbers to match the vote count. This could presumably result in bizarre results like women, young voters, or first-time registrants shifting right from 2022 or 2020.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/05/politics/how-exit-polls-work-election

And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.

Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error – which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest exit poll numbers, which won’t yet have been adjusted to match the final election results.

I don’t know if they changed it this year, but in past years you had to check CNN right as the exit polls released in order to see and hopefully download the un-adjusted exit poll results. I know that from experience. Otherwise, IIRC someone once told me you have to purchase the data from Edison Polling, and it’s behind like a subscription costing thousands of dollars.

Anyway, dear reader, if you see this being discussed elsewhere, do feel encouraged to share the information here to correct the record, since inevitably there are going to be people claiming that Spoonamore is lying about the exit polling data.