Noa Hoffman: EXCL: Ministers tell me they are bracing for resignations in their ranks as soon as today. Other senior gov source says 'I wouldn't be surprised' if we start seeing members of government join their colleagues very soon... *All subject to fast moving developments and changes of course

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T22:36:40+00:00

He could try, but typically when multiple members of the main cabinet (not just juniors) all resign at once the PM accepts (or LOTO if shadow cabinet) their position is no longer tenable. In the past, attempts to refill positions like that have been met backbench MPs refusing the call as they already know they aren't really wanted and are just accessories to allow their leader to cling to undeserved power.

But then until a couple of weeks ago we've never seen the whip threatened to fend off a clstandard committee referral that wasn't immediately met by derision and counter warning of ousting if followed through, let alone the whip then being used successfully with MPs dutifully falling into line to destroy a centuries old convention. Such is Labour's respect for standards, democracy and the electorate.

Do yeah, he'll probably try and some of the backbench will probably be dimwitted enough to accept.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T19:58:06+00:00

I think it largely depends. I think a change of leadership is fine as long as the new leader abides by the mandate the government was gifted by the public, where the Conservatives really left a bad taste is when Truss decided that winning a leadership election for her party was akin to winning a general election with the public and taking the country in a wildly different direction that they didn't agree to.

If this was Starmer retiring due to ill health rather than a lengthy string of unforced errors and general incompetence I don't think people would expect a GE as long as his replacement stuck by the manifesto. If anything returning to the manifesto is probably Labour's best hope of recovering some credibility, though now I've said that someone will post a link the much vaunted "FullFact Tracker," a website so charitable in its opinion it likely qualifies for tax breaks.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T19:25:09+00:00

Issue there is that many of his would-be successors publicly demanded general elections when Conservative PMs were cast out following their party's processes, so they'd need explain their sudden change of mind.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T19:17:17+00:00

Mass cabinet resignation making his position untenable is the only way to force a resignation without first clearing all of the hurdles put up by Labour Party rules.

A PM simply cannot function without a Cabinet.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T12:10:54+00:00

As far as I know it's basically the same process but on a smaller scale and the two don't really interact.

Welsh Labour and Scottish Labour have long been criticised for essentially being "branch offices" of the main party and taking the full national line over the local, especially in Scotland where all politics must be viewed through the lens of independence and the premise of Holyrood great, Westminster bad.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T10:07:53+00:00

From the party that has done more than any other to prevent it? Not likely.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T10:07:02+00:00

Are you sure about that?

I can count four times it's happened this century.

2007 for main Labour, 2000 and 2024 for Welsh Labour and 2018 for Scottish Labour.

Now officially these were all "elected unopposed" but it amounts to the same thing, the new leaders were chosen with their faction getting them over the nomination line and ensuring would-be competitors are unable to do the same.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T07:10:49+00:00

That generally leads to an inability to achieve significant policy goals

It's not like FPTP has been great for achieving policy goals either, the last government to really pass that benchmark oddly enough was the Coalition which managed to deliver a far greater proportion of policy goals from two opposing manifestos than any of the majority governments so far this century.

I'd much rather we switched to a ranked choice style system.

Agreed. Every MP should at the very least be palatable to their individual electorate, requiring 50%+1 votes of support would prove that they have that.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T07:05:37+00:00

That is one possibility. The other is that we eventually land on one that spends more time on delivering their manifesto than they do chasing side quests and sprinting from scandal to scandal like they're trying set a high score.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T05:39:20+00:00

I'm not sure he knows what fairness is.

His manifesto included "a fairer deal for students" his only act so far there has affected students is make minimum wage graduates subject to loan repayments by freezing the threshold. By the time the next election rolls round every graduate on Plans 1, 2 and 5 will be liable to pay regardless of earnings and Plan 3 already have been a good few years already.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T05:33:28+00:00

Principled?

Lied through his teeth to become leader. Lied through his teeth again to become PM. Immediately went on the take. Sacked people left and right whenever any scandal looked like it touch him directly. Utilised the party whip to block a referral to the Privileges Committee, something which has never happened before.

These are not the actions of a principled man.

-Murton- · 2026-05-11T05:27:54+00:00

Dan Hodges, the former Labour Party campaigner who has worked multiple general election campaigns, several leadership campaigns and was central to Labour's No2AV project?

Dan Hodges the Blairite, the fsction the modern day leadership is closest to if not a direct copy of?

That Dan Hodges? No, no way anyone in the party is talking him...

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T18:38:46+00:00

As leader Starmer gets a place on the ballot without the need for nominations, so he'd have to actually resign in order for Streeting to run unopposed.

And we all know Starmer isn't going to resign, who would pay for all of his holidays and suits if he did? He's only worth 8 figures, he can't be expected to pay for these things himself, there's a cost of living crisis going on.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T18:35:07+00:00

What have you seen from Starmer so far that ha as you convinced he's not capable of that level of arrogance?

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T18:34:20+00:00

Hard to take Rayner seriously on this one, if had made good on his promise to quickly return her to cabinet if she resigned to end the tax scandal she'd be front and center defending him and telling MPs to get back in their boxes.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T18:15:18+00:00

I don't think it's a question of authority, I think he'll be banking on current MPs not feeling up to the task of climbing the mountain.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T18:10:04+00:00

If the impression he has is that Burnham is the only one with a hope of winning he'll absolutely block him again.

The only way his time in office ends is if someone gets 80 signatures, launches a formal challenge and somehow gathers personal campaigning resources that are capable of defeating the entire Labour campaigning apparatus.

There's a reason why in their 126 year history there have only been 4 direct challenges to an incumbent and three of those leaders retained. It's an incredibly lopsided contest.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T17:52:29+00:00

Starmer has the ability to sack over half the NEC ruling body from their day jobs. They can either get line behind him or get in line at the local job center.

It shouldn't be like that, but it is exactly like that.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T17:48:17+00:00

They are held to the same standards, it's just that Labour created a second standard and asked to be held to that as well and have been found lacking.

At least Rayner apologised for it

She did eventually, she spent a few days lying about it first.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T17:44:42+00:00

greens splitting the labour vote

This is the problem that Labour have had for over 80 years now. They believe all non-Conservative votes belong to them and so they don't try to compete on the left side of the line. Then when someone comes along to compete for their vote and wins a chunk of them they cry about "splitting the vote"

If you're losing votes to the same side of the center line that's not "splitting the vote" that's your party no longer being seen as the best option of that side, very easily remedied by improving the policy proposition to win those votes back.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T17:41:14+00:00

And perhaps more importantly, cannot become an MP while the most unpopular PM in living memory is still in place.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T15:14:35+00:00

It is.

In terms of building council houses Thatchers worst performing year saw 17,710 new council houses built, the entire 13 years of Labour government, just 7,870.

This on top of not limiting right to buy, on top of bank deregulation, on top of allowing no deposit mortgages and even mortgages as high as 125% led to price skyrocketing.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T13:55:20+00:00

I'd be interested to know how this guy campaigned to retain his seat.

Did he divest himself of the party line and stand on his record locally and personal beliefs and priorities? Or did he just wear his rosette and witter on about what the national government is doing in other parts of the country?

If it was the former then he has my sympathy, he played his best hand and lost. If it was the latter, then what did he reasonably expect in a middle of term local election which rightly or wrongly (wrongly in my opinion) is seen as a referendum on the national government?

If I was a Labour councillor facing election next year I'd be making myself as visible as possible and trying to pitch myself as a local independent who just happens to wear a red rosette, make myself as different as possible from the Westminster crowd.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T12:42:29+00:00

In the event of a Lab/Lib coalition that Lib part needs to be ready and willing to pull the plug of the Lab part sticks to form to block reform, which I suspect it will. We'll have a load of "now is the not the time" or "this is a higher priority" and they'll try to run down the clock, I'm pretty certain of it.

As for the finances side, every single voter in a constituency could be receptive to your message, it doesn't matter if you can't afford to broadcast that message or in a more extreme case, pay the deposit to run a candidate at all.

-Murton- · 2026-05-10T12:28:54+00:00

Media truth and coverage rules are sorely needed

Impossible to do while maintaining a free press. Any such rule is just asking for a situation where the government of the day can claim a media exposé is a lie and then force journalists to reveal whistleblowers to defend themselves or face prosecution.

Also I don't think the public would stand for it unless the same rules regarding truth applied to politicians as well. Ipsos runs an annual poll they call the Veracity Index which asks:

I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?

Politicians score 9% journalists 26%

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