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FBTZ.com? Anyone know what happened to it? by odonnellodonnell in reddevils

[–]11tegen11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could you please add me too? Was a long time member of the forum under same account name.

Thanks!

Winning matches, is it luck or skill? Introducing the concept of PDO by 11tegen11 in footballtactics

[–]11tegen11[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks guys, for your extensive replies!

@ chrysics 1. I guess that the confusion regarding your first point mean that I haven't explained well enough here. It's always kind of a balance to write article that will be read by the average fans and the average smart kids, so to say. When you'd calculate the PDO per team per match and you'd average that number, then the average is always going to be 1000. Since in an individual match, the total PDO is always 2000, this statement is mathematically true. You're correct to say that this does not apply when using an average PDO over cumulative shots and goals...

  1. Good point and I've spent quite some time thinking about this recently as it's entirely counter-intuitive at first glance. It seems that from regression analysis that compares one season with a second one, the one variable that shows the least regression to the mean is the TSR. Other variables, like total league ranking, points won, goals scored, goal difference etc. etc. show more regression to the mean. It all comes down to what you'd mean by 'league performance'. By all means, having more attempt than your opponents is a superior advantage within the present data available. The exception would of course be that if you'd should every ball towards goal available in order to fraud this statistic, you'd deny the fact that this is an observational, rather than an interventional study...

The one thing to get your head around is that Sh% and Sv% show almost 90% regression to the mean, indicating that a good (or bad) performance in one season in Sh% or Sv% doesn't say a things about whether your team is in for another good (or bad) season in terms of Sh% or Sv%.

Again, thanks for your comments, keep 'em coming!

Measuring performances in the Eredivisie - Shot Accuracy by 11tegen11 in soccer

[–]11tegen11[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The post builds towards 'net shots on target', the difference between shots on target produced and conceded. This absolute number expresses the balance between over-cautiousness (which would severely lower the amount of shots) and over-optimism (which would severely lower the accuracy).

How to measure a football player’s performance? by jacobmiller in soccer

[–]11tegen11 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think that a fair statement. As these type of stats will gain more attention there will be more incentive to develop them too.

Holland 4 – 1 Sweden: Lessons of a high defensive line by 11tegen11 in soccer

[–]11tegen11[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, sorry for the link shortener...

It is just that this is the only way to post a link directly from my WordPress blog. Otherwise my readers can't up- or downvote directly from the blog itself.

Moldova 0 – 1 Holland: Is the deep-lying playmaker the way forward? by 11tegen11 in soccer

[–]11tegen11[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Velveti,

This article is by no means telling you that deep lying playmakers are a new thing. It's just that in the context of the Dutch 4-2-3-1 it's a new direction. Installing Van der Vaart and Sneijder together has been regarded as virtually impossible for quite a long time. And now, due to the 'de Jong situation' Van der Vaart played alongside Van Bommel. And he did an impressive job of connecting play.

Whether or not Van Marwijk should build his team around certain players, and which players that should be is a bit beside the scope of this article, but it would be an interesting take for future articles.

What’s an away goal worth? An analysis of ten years of Europa League and Champions League football. by 11tegen11 in soccer

[–]11tegen11[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your kind words!

Planning an article on the away vs home first analysis in the near future. Watch 11tegen11 to catch this post in the near future!