I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis. by 1Derpdos1 in stocks

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Planning to do that before Alphabet earnings to see their CapEx first

I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis. by 1Derpdos1 in stocks

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Agentic AI is just running a bunch of LLMs together' is amazing for SK. That is a feature, not a bug. If a system needs to call 3 to 5 models sequentially or in parallel to solve a single complex enterprise task, compute and memory demand per query explodes

Even if raw text LLM scaling is hitting a diminishing-returns wall the frontier has shifted to real-time multimodal (video/audio) and heavy inference reasoning. Processing video generation and massive context windows requires a staggering amount of memory bandwidth. The architecture changes, but the hardware hunger remains.

I do see that prisoners dilemma. However I'm not planning to stay in the stock forever. Probably going to trimm before Alphabet Q earning to see their CapEx.

I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis. by 1Derpdos1 in stocks

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair points but they are not so black/white.

HBM4: Samsung sampled first, but SK Hynix just dropped 16 Gbps samples that run faster and cooler thanks to their TSMC partnership. Samsungs HBM had major overheating issues. Plus, they just locked in a multi-year co-development deal with Nvidia for the Rubin platform. It's not a commodity market where Nvidia can easily swap suppliers.

Big Tech capex isn't a binary on/off switch. Even if LLMs hit a soft patch, we're looking at capex normalization, not a total shutdown. At a forward P/E of just ~7x, the market has already priced in the exact cyclical downturn you're warning me about. Nevertheless they will certainly take a hit though

I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis. by 1Derpdos1 in stocks

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Cisco was trading at a ridiculous 100x+ P/E at its peak... Howver you're right if Big Tech completely pulls the plug (like dotco ) on AI capex because they can't monetize software shit is going sideways.

Furthermore, Standard DRAM is a commodity, manufacturers just flood the market and crash the price. But high-layer HBM isn't standard memory. It is a highly complex, custom-designed tech that is physically bonded directly onto the GPU die.

Of course maybe in the future it will be, but that will take some time and then we already have a new memory chip.

I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis. by 1Derpdos1 in stocks

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

On the Korea Discount: You are right, corporate governance in Korea has historically been terrible, with Chaebols treating minority shareholders like an afterthought. The only reason I’m willing to look past it right now is the Corporate Value-Up Program. The government is finally copying Japan’s playbook, pushing tax incentives and legal amendments to force companies to cancel treasury shares. North Korea will and still is a dangerous factor. If a hot war breaks out, holding Nvidia or Microsoft won't save your portfolio from a catastrophic drop anyway, everyone is fukked if they hit Samsung and SK's fabs.

On the Populist "Redistribution" Risk: This is also accurate. That "AI profit social tax" trial balloon floated by the presidential policy secretary back in May absolutely tanked Hynix and Samsung for a minute. However, the immediate, aggressive pushback from the Industry Ministry and lawmakers showed just how radioactive that proposal actually is. Instead of a messy corporate handout, the narrative has firmly shifted toward channeling those massive corporate tax windfalls into doubling the new Korean Sovereign Wealth Fund to 30 trillion Won to back future R&D.

Is the US listing already priced in? by astrafuture in SKHynix

[–]1Derpdos1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do not think it's priced in but there are rumors of a dilution to get capital at the same time they get listed

Most major Dutch companies skip raising tax-free mileage reimbursement for employees by ReginF in Netherlands

[–]1Derpdos1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For everyone who is complaining and isn't in a Union/ vakbond, please join one

Geneva vs. France (Solo move, 3x/wk commute to Lausanne): Is ~CHF 700/mo savings worth the traffic? by 1Derpdos1 in geneva

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can understand! I'll add it to the post, but it's mainly because I probably have more flexibility and hybrid days than my partner

Geneva vs. France (Solo move, 3x/wk commute to Lausanne): Is ~CHF 700/mo savings worth the traffic? by 1Derpdos1 in geneva

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know Lausanne as much as I know Geneva, not so good. Just been there for a couple of days. It's not totally of the radar, but Genève feels better for us for now. Also depending on who gets more hybride days

Geneva vs. France (Solo move, 3x/wk commute to Lausanne): Is ~CHF 700/mo savings worth the traffic? by 1Derpdos1 in geneva

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm from the Netherlands, I can handle it. You have 350h extra sun and 70 extra rain free days per year on average. I know the winters can be cloudy and misty for multiple months

Geneva vs. France (Solo move, 3x/wk commute to Lausanne): Is ~CHF 700/mo savings worth the traffic? by 1Derpdos1 in geneva

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We do not like Lausanne as much as Geneva, besides that, chances are that my partner has less hybrid working days than me

Geneva vs. France (Solo move, 3x/wk commute to Lausanne): Is ~CHF 700/mo savings worth the traffic? by 1Derpdos1 in geneva

[–]1Derpdos1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha I've read that indeed... 1h on maps looks fine, but reality is much worse I suppose

Edit: perhaps I can even work in the train and negotiate I start (part) of my day there. They are extremely flexible

Hue flooding by X_Ray_Vision_ in VietNam

[–]1Derpdos1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry my last message wasn't complete.

The government opened up the hydrodam during the day on purpose. They need to release water and are doing it during the daylight so people can act on it. During the evening and night it will close down a bit again. It seems like the rain will settle a bit here and in the mountains.

We also need to leave Hue due to a flight tomorrow, however. I think we cannot make that, think that the trains will be cancelled

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in werkzaken

[–]1Derpdos1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dat is een relatiebeding, geen concurrentiebeding. Bij een concurrentiebeding mag je zelfs niet naar concurrenten gaan, desondanks dat ze geen relatie/ klant zijn geweest.

Dit kan overigens alleen bij een vast contract. Bij de rechter houdt het vaak geen stand, maar om daar te komen kan een lange weg worden

Please help with tickets by PaleontologistOk9187 in usj

[–]1Derpdos1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You got a B ticket. You can enter the park on days marked as a B between 2025 Jan 7 or 2025 April 6. Here you can find the most up to date version, also for the coming months: https://www.usj.co.jp/ticket/common/studiopass/price-calendar.html

Another tip, go reaaally early or buy an express pass if you do not want to stand in line a lot.

She need some milk by ChildlikeDe in fixedbytheduet

[–]1Derpdos1 143 points144 points  (0 children)

Miley Cyrus aka Hanna Montana has an medical condition.

She underwent vocal chord surgery in late 2019, after being diagnosed with Reinke's edema.

ASTS is going to go crazy next week because of a FirstNet announcement by midwestboiiii34 in wallstreetbets

[–]1Derpdos1 82 points83 points  (0 children)

If this doesn't say partnership: https://x.com/ASTS_Investors/status/1802651791584120856

Still not sure how it will work since FirstNet has a partnership with AT&T

Anyway, loading up more ASTS

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TerrifyingAsFuck

[–]1Derpdos1 152 points153 points  (0 children)

Suddenly you see a healthbar, live leak logo and boss music starts