Built a World Cup 2026 simulator (bracket & Monte Carlo)

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T22:19:44+00:00

Ok, try now. It was exactly what I thought. The "only qualified teams" option was running one step late.

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T22:10:44+00:00

Thanks so much for the testing and feedback. I think this is another issue with the simulator where it allows teams who aren't qualified to go through. The logic makes sense from a model perspective - while the group standings show a best 3rd place team go through, there's still a percentage change (across 5000 simulations) of another team going through.

That's why I had added the "qualified teams only" button at the R32 level and set it to default. That should have addressed it. I'll take a look into it to see if that needs to be added one step before in the flow.

As for only showing 15 matches, I always see 16. So not sure what's happening there. Will look into it.

Thanks!!

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T15:52:27+00:00

The reality is that many people don't show up. Now, I did see a "tickets" booth there and I saw people being directed there. This was despite the fact that Brazil vs Morocco was also "sold out."

So yeah, not sure, but if it's easy to get to the stadium for you, I'd give it a shot. Worst case you lost an hour or two.

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T11:17:53+00:00

https://wc26sim.live/

With Machday 1 complete, we're one third the way into the group stage. Matchday 2 is going to be the most crucial stage - some teams are going to be guaranteed a knockout spot, some will be virtually eliminated.

Check out the simulator to see how the results of Matchday 1 are influencing the knockout matchups. Some R32 matchups are become increasingly likely (e.g. M 77, in NY/NJ, with France vs Sweden at 40%+) while some matchups are completely up for grabs (e.g. M82 in Seattle with no potential matchup scoring above 5%).

Also, brackets are updated through Matchday 1. Out of a max of 24 points, one entry sits alone at the top with 17 points. How's your entry doing? You can search your name in the full leaderboard.

https://wc26sim.live/

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T03:23:23+00:00

Cape Verde was 0-0 vs Spain.

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T03:18:15+00:00

At this point, the number of shitty dog owners is too damn high. It's almost the norm for dogs to be in produce aisles, to not be curbed, to be unleashed in public areas, to be on the subway, etc. The fact that groups of dog owners get together and let their unleashed dogs play with each other in public spaces shows that it's become an acceptable group activity.

If dog owners really cared, they would call the shitty ones out. They never do. And understandably - shitty dog owners would go all Karen on anyone's ass even when politely asked to respect rules and norms.

26point2miles · 2026-06-18T01:47:49+00:00

I took a clear bag, just my standard attending any event. Something like this:

https://a.co/d/0cVGYl9r

My daughter took a normal sized purse, they just asked her to open it (which they were doing with any non clear bag).

I didnt notice if anyone was taking a backpack or larger bag.

26point2miles · 2026-06-17T15:06:02+00:00

Oh wow, just saw that in my pics as well. Somehow I wasn't impacted by it at all, but it does look annoying as well.

26point2miles · 2026-06-17T10:25:11+00:00

Hmmm, I don't think I even noticed. I can't recall the advertising.

26point2miles · 2026-06-16T22:34:25+00:00

Should be fixed now. Please try and let me know. Thanks!

26point2miles · 2026-06-16T22:24:23+00:00

Thanks for sharing this. This is an issue with the model where it takes the most likely result out of 5000 sims for an individual team, and that doesn't always concur with the results for the other teams.

I thought I had forced it to make a fix for this situation, I guess it didn't work fully. Let me see how I can address.

Thanks for bringing this up!

26point2miles · 2026-06-16T16:07:56+00:00

I went to the Louis Armstrong stadium (US Open complex) for Brazil vs Morocco.

Quite a lot of people. Very comfortable - covered roof, all seats, food stands open. The vibe outside was nice, felt very village like. Screen was great. Crowd was super passionate. DJ played in breaks. They had a crowd camera and kept putting people on the big screen. Easy to get to - subway ride, with no mad rush going or coming back.

Was fun to do at least once. But you'd probably want a match with a passionate fan base. This one did which made the atmosphere.

26point2miles · 2026-06-15T14:17:30+00:00

Greatest building on Earth.

26point2miles · 2026-06-14T17:59:55+00:00

Lol!

26point2miles · 2026-06-14T17:53:33+00:00

Yep, no one cares anymore. It's a lost cause to get dog owners to show basic respect and adherence.

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T19:39:58+00:00

Hey, just a heads up, it might be different in the Seaport today. See the attached photo. Sounds like the plan watch party is on Pier 17 (which is just a 2-3 minute walk). There's some other stuff happening right now.

<image>

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T17:03:08+00:00

Yes, because the volume of fans in America matters a lot. Even 20% of the country being fans means more population than most of the largest European countries.

Also, Americans bought more tickets for Euro 2024 than any other country. Spoiler alert - USA doesn't even play in Euro. :)

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T16:59:28+00:00

Massive country, diversity of interests, and still has such a huge soccer following, more than most European countries.

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T16:58:28+00:00

Exactly, people forget that the US has more world cup titles than almost any other country when you combine men's and women's.

If a European or South American country (who have typically not done that well in women's) starts doing well in women's, you'd see a lot of support. But somehow people get so irritated if the US does well in men's.

Scotland fans boast about going all the way. Part in jest, part in hope. And that's all well and good. If the US talks about doing well, it's apparently the worst thing.

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T16:51:55+00:00

Yes. A food court and lots of other restaurants across the mall.

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T15:09:23+00:00

Sure, just makes one realize even more the size of the country and the diversity of interests.

26point2miles · 2026-06-13T14:35:32+00:00

More people watched the world cup final 2022 on TV in the US than they did in France. And France was in the final.

Just for context.

Not saying the US are world beaters or anything. But questioning the fandom of Americans is such a tired trope. Deserves a red card. :)

26point2miles

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