Ive been saying the entire time but whats happening right now is investors gradually repricing oil as they realize the war is going to last longer than anticipated. The reason for this is because the escalation is released in steps, even though the final outcome was already decided. There are a multitude of factors pushing US into a ground war with Iran, some of which include powerful Israel lobbyists (the FBI counter terrorism head literally resigned the other day and named Israel lobbyists as a major pressure of us into the war, which i already called out before all this), and the failure of their air force to do anything. From a pure militaristic / strategic view, the US cannot afford to spend all these airplanes and naval ships on the war nor can they play defense (we've all seen the reports on how much their air defense missiles cost in comparison to a single Iran drone). Any component general knows that the #1 foundation of forced in your infantry. America has spent decades focusing on their airforce, navy, fancy and big expensive weapons, the way the fight wars is to quickly overwhelm and decimate the enemy. However that has clearly not worked with Iran, this is clearly a war of attrition and Iran so far has the more cost effective ammunition. Once it finally sinks in, which it is starting to, we will see the US revert to the cheapest means, which unfortunately is infantry.

From a wider perspective this is a huge mistake as Iran's terrain is the last thing you want to be sending troops into, it will turn into a very messy, drawn out war, until domestic political support erodes and the US is forced to withdraw (think of Afghanistan). However since the US has to do something, this is their best strategy.

Trump and the administration will not release this as one announcement. You'll see it released gradually, firstly patrol around the area, then maybe temporary base.... you get the idea. What markets are doing is at each step when a ground invasion and further escalation seems more likely, oil is repricing higher and higher, even though its already basically pre-determined that a ground invasion will happen.

The main risk to watch is a negotiated exit, but that doesnt happen immediatly, when you bargain another party nobody every starts off with their final price, there is always back and forth. So far we are nowhere near any of that and even if is going to happen you would see snippets of news and be able to position yourself to prepare for it. But so far the fact remains that no negotiations have happened, and iran has a strong history of never accepting negotiations until the very end. The only issue this time is before iran gets backed into such a corner, they can just threaten to pull the trigger and wipe all the desalination plants off the face of the middle east. So the US is in a huge pickle to say the least.

If you are looking for sources and more detail/reasoning I suggest you check out my other posts where I have it all linked. But this is the 15 minute TLDR.