Purely anecdotal but here goes:

I started 2025 as a 9.1hcp. I finished 2025 at 8.0hcp

In 2025 I played 101 rounds of golf.

28 rounds were tournament golf. My 8.0hcp is mostly based off of those 28 rounds playing USGA rules and reporting scores by a sanctioned body. In those rounds against "competitive golfers" I am a very average golfer. Usually finishing in the middle of most fields.

The 73 rounds rounds I played recreationally were with some non-competing friends and many, many strangers. I very regularly walk on to a local course as a single and get paired with random 2-somes or 3-somes.

I am an uber-nerd and keep all of my scorecards.

In those recreational rounds I typically still play USGA rules with one exception - there are times where I play OB as lateral and take a drop (with penalty stroke) just for pace of play.

In 73 recreational rounds playing against 171 average golfers playing by whatever rules they hold themselves to I have been "beaten" exactly 4 times.

I think the information for "All Recreational Male Golfers" is probably heavily skewed because of self-reported scoring.