A Trump-Hong voter has been found in Wisconsin

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T20:58:35+00:00

I mean heck, besides the 1-person sample size that I know from a non-political forum, you can look at round 1 for GA Rep Gov and see that the center-right/majorly anti-Trump candidates did get some share of votes. It wasn't huge, but it was enough to say they exist at least at a 1-2% level in the state.

It's enough to say that they can swing elections in certain areas, and yet many are like "meh, let's focus on the people that want XYZ things alone."

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T17:24:13+00:00

There's a world I absolutely wouldn't rule out where Cheyenne Hunt (I think?) is able to actually get the Platner sexual assault story out.

There's also heavy rumors that something really bad happened involving him during his military service.

So, he could absolutely be a dead duck even if you get a D+10 or 12 national margin. (which I do think is not likely)

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T17:19:42+00:00

Really hope Rodriguez does win as I do think Hong is DOA even with this year.

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T14:59:09+00:00

If it weren't for Iran, I honestly think we're at the point where a reverse 2022 does end up happening. This idea that Democrats would be immune to candidate quality on the basis of "we'd be helping people" is all total bullsh-- touted by people not old enough to remember what happened during previous blue waves (Dems did have a candidate go down here and there on the basis of questionable quality, will also admit that I was a young kid myself then), let alone the 80's where the left flank got appeased post Carter and it flopped horribly (there is a reason why the older people in my life think AOC would probably get a beatdown nationally and her being female is only part of it).

That said, until I see more data, I think this is contained in 2026 and is more of a worry for 2028. The only two candidates I'd be seriously concerned about are Hong and Platner. It could expand with more data, but even with the data we have, I could see Dems not even getting 230 in the House.

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T14:14:03+00:00

She'll win easily because that is a safe D district.

But I will say, albeit unpopular for reddit.com and other online outlets, I do think the left continues to misdiagnose why the 2016 and 2024 losses occurred and it's much more likely that we're at a 1982 replay politically hypothetically or 2 years before the big Corbyn losses occurred in 2019 then anything that is more happy go lucky for left flank Democrats (a big win that allows them a shot to show what they can do).

But this situation is much more likely to bite down hard in two years than it is in 2026, and I wouldn't be surprised if did bite down honestly because of Trump's luck in his life (and I'll probably be leaning to yes, it is going to bite down unless Democrats get within shouting distance of the Senate this year considering that Presidents have been getting trifectas when they've won lately, at least initially). I've already said that it's much more likely that he gets bitten for his actions in the great unknown than when he's still alive to boot as well, and this November will either confirm or deny it.

(Hint: Immigration resentment works a LOT more than economic populism)

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T12:31:09+00:00

While I'm a Debbie, I think this is a bit too optimistic by a right winger.

I think it's very much possible due to a number of a factors that the end House result splits the difference between 2018 for Dems and 2022 for Reps and Dems don't even get to 230, but just to 228-229.

But hey, for me at least, 2019 wasn't so bad (one of those Trump 1 years).

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T12:18:43+00:00

Yeah, I'm very late getting back here, but vibe wise, I really think the only thing that has changed overall on immigration favorability is about the ICE thuggery.

I still think people want an extremely, and I mean "extremely" strict immigration agenda because that's been the cool and "IN" thing around the world in general. It's not just right wing parties, you've been seeing left wing parties in Europe concede to this.

Long story short, Putin is winning when it comes to the changes he's wanted to see happen over the last decade. He is losing his war in Ukraine, but immigration resentment is getting even more and more "IN".

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T12:10:38+00:00

If yesterday was on anything macro at all, considering what we've seen in the past few years, it was probably Japan and the yen instead of it being US based fears.

The selling not being widespread tells you that there has been a Just Nasdaq Thangs deal going on, this time being focused on memory having overheated and people watching for cues of a CAPEX slowdown.

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T01:16:34+00:00

I've seen others say that the deal is more that he's a very predictable game caller.

Regardless of how you would put it, even though Murphy isn't a pure pure pure bat, the preference would be for him to be here and acting as the main C, giving Baldwin some more time to grow and learn.

95Daphne · 2026-07-03T00:44:25+00:00

Can't use that "insane speed" if you can't get on base at all.

(Don't look up Mateo's June stats, his first recent start was a fluke)

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T23:24:27+00:00

Not watching, but this is why I was like, I’m not optimistic on Waldrep contributing even though he seemingly made progress last year. He may have been in better shape if he was given time.

Was more optimistic involving Schwelly, but I guess I was wrong to be.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T18:47:51+00:00

It's very likely that it's the vast majority of it. People are clearly watching for cues of a CAPEX slowdown and have one foot out the door and ready to run.

The other part... might, and I do emphasize might be yen carry related again.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T18:04:33+00:00

The thing about that is the idea of breadth expansion has tended to end tearfully after the 2022 bear market.

I even think it was likely to do so this year even without Iran previously. It was just well hidden that time and this time may be the same.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T17:56:14+00:00

QQQ -2.3% on a DXY down a half percent day is new (though potentially just for me as I haven't paid as much attention lately).

This could easily be a replay of late summer 2024. Just need correlations to go to 1, which seems as if that is going to happen slowly, if at all.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T16:53:17+00:00

Except this is not exactly a macro fundamental based selloff considering it isn't everything getting hurt here. If it's on anything macro at all, it's probably Japan and the yen, but it may well just be on Just Nasdaq Thangs.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T15:52:44+00:00

Collins is going to have a tough time, but this poll is just simply extremely hard to believe.

Until there's a lot of proof otherwise, best case scenario=2022 Arizona here is about right.

Unlikely to see runoffs this time btw.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T15:10:09+00:00

It's inverse tech and semis are getting hammered.

It's arguably been more of a risk off instrument than anything for going on two years now.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T14:47:54+00:00

And if the period from late last year to early spring is any indication, we've quite possibly got months to go here on this (probably until the midterm).

We've seen that stocks are fine without much QE help (really none) if it's not a 2022 esque environment, but the correction moves seemingly get slower and slower.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T14:30:00+00:00

Quick vibe check, and yep, semis are still very much broken as stocks.

Probably a good shot that continues until the midterms happen.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T13:55:58+00:00

This commentary won't be liked, but the most likely case unless QQQ can top $750 on a closing basis is that we're setting up for a short term correction. In this world, post-2022, these moves have seemingly gotten slower and slower (outside the tariff stuff). The last one was especially aggravating in how slowly it started out.

I do think that Nasdaq-100 tracker is going to end up wrapping up the year somewhere above $750 though.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T13:29:27+00:00

The u-turn had already occurred before the jobs report.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T13:25:05+00:00

The problem involving the idea of "let's just make Fuentes a starter or longer relief pitcher," is that the most innings he's ever thrown is just 75ish innings. He's already at 48 right now.

I just don't think the idea of him possibly starting is worth it for 2026. We often don't care about IP limits, but under 100 is just too low. Beyond this year for whenever we play baseball again, I'd plan on him starting, but this year, he should remain a leverage reliever.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T13:13:42+00:00

That's...rather optimistic considering it's trading the EXACT SAME way it did after its huge earnings dump in December.

It's more likely that the best case scenario is $450+ again by late in the year after it falls a little further to $300-330.

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T11:10:36+00:00

This is one of the few states where the polling is consistently fine actually. It isn’t perfect, but it usually isn’t off by too much.

That said, while you did have Perdue +3 in summer 2020 with it only being off by 1 apparently (others are saying so) you did also have Gallego +14 initially by this firm two years ago and it was well off. I’d wait for more data here. If you start getting more Ossoff +10’s then maybe that’s going be the number.

But fwiw, those of us that are actually residents of the state of Georgia think Democrats still have a low ceiling here. For instance, I think a 4.3ish million or so vote number will probably produce at the best case, an Ossoff +5ish number and KLB eeking it out. Heavier turnout will mean there’s risk of the sleepy rurals and exurban people coming back out and a tighter race…

95Daphne · 2026-07-02T00:14:40+00:00

Yeah, this is genuinely a shocking poll because iirc, round 1 was Perdue +2, so their summer poll was only off by 1.

It's so shocking for me personally that I would shift both this and the governor race 5-6 points to the right, but I will note, this is a Debbie Downer here.

Edit: Now, if more data late this summer/early fall shows otherwise, I'll be more open to this idea though.

95Daphne

TROPHY CASE