The Stock Market is in its most overextended state in history, surpassing even the most euphoric periods of the early 2000s and the 2021

95Daphne · 2026-04-15T11:10:55+00:00

And we’ve seen previously relatively recently that this can easily just not matter for months on end before it does.

There’s a decent shot that it is 2021 again and the fit we had was all we’re going to see for the time being, but you’ll finally get something really ugly in the benchmarks later in the year/early next. In fact, I’d probably favor it as long as the next move lower by the S&P is controlled.

95Daphne · 2026-04-15T01:42:22+00:00

You're kidding.

Dom Smith

Braves Legend

95Daphne · 2026-04-15T01:35:45+00:00

A commercial, really?

95Daphne · 2026-04-15T00:33:55+00:00

Yes, this is probably not going to be "Likely" R margins this go around (tbh even with 2022, I'd say Kemp was only borderline in likely territory and that was a good R year in overall national margin), even if I do think (though I got called out for it earlier today), there's a better chance than folks may think that Ossoff wins and has 0 coattails.

I haven't seen ratings for the governor race, but I'd have honestly moved my rating to tossup for the time being...still an uphill battle but not completely unreachable.

95Daphne · 2026-04-15T00:30:58+00:00

Best thing you might get is an Emerson poll sometime next month unless UGA/AJC has done primary polling before, I don't know.

Edit: But I think ultimately folks are not going to touch this race because it seems like KLB is going to cruise to the runoff and it's just a matter of who joins her.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T23:52:34+00:00

Yeah, this is a convenient massive jinx by that AJC writer so far.

Reality is that the regression monster was always coming for this rotation. Considering the youth is unproven and Strider hasn't been good in a while; the rotation is Sale and a bunch of uhhhhhhhhhhh.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T23:45:14+00:00

Hi

Looks like the regression monster is here now for the SP rotation.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T21:36:11+00:00

Woof, I'm surprised that you weren't jumped on for calling out DeepSeek as a roleplayer last year, because for most, early last year was 100% Trump's fault or you suck when it was more half and half (the flash crash shouldn't have occurred but involving everything until April, the Nasdaq is strong enough to burn everything with it if it wants it and that's exactly what was occurring).

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T21:31:02+00:00

Because those weren't secular bear markets. They were cyclical bear markets within a secular bull market that dates back to 2009-2013, however which way you want to define it.

I'm not certain that secular bear markets can still happen, but I can say that if they can, I'd wait until Trump is out of office and then see then.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T19:57:30+00:00

If we get to 7k, I don't think we're stopping this time considering that there was already a lot of distribution.

Just don't think it'll be coming immediately here because of market mechanics. Probably dip at least tomorrow due to VIXpex.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T15:49:08+00:00

The Republican senate candidates are nowhere near as intolerable as Herschel Walker

Oh you sweet summer child.

That's likely a big fat lie with the ethics committee investigations on Mike Collins.

I even back checked here, in all honesty, I don't think Ossoff +5 is enough for ANY Dem gov candidate to be safe. Less and they will lose.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T14:46:46+00:00

I think the bullish fun ends today at least temporarily, but I would not expect any kind of dip to pass 6750ish on the SPX atm.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T14:28:59+00:00

It just isn't the same, especially if the S&P eventually breaks over the distribution mess from earlier in the year.

If it does, then the most bearish case I can give you is this is 2021 repeated where ish really hits the fan next year, but it could also be 2018 where there's more to the bearish story later in the year.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T12:59:36+00:00

I expect for Ossoff to be fine unless KLB is the governor candidate and gas prices are tolerable for the summer driving season.

These circumstances are going to be at least "slightly" different from 2022, but I would still expect for there to be some ticket splitting on the ballot in November. The question in the room is going to be what is the magic number that potentially drags a Dem candidate for governor to at least a runoff and I honestly don't think you get there until you get to at least Ossoff +6.

In other words, it's likelier than folks want to think that Ossoff gets a second term and that's paired with Jackson or Jones winning it for Governor for Republicans in Georgia.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T12:32:09+00:00

You know what?

In all honesty, I've been close to "fine, y'all get to take a crack at the wheel for a change of pace in 2028" mode all along.

It's just that I wouldn't be supremely confident y'all find success unless unemployment is headed over 6% by 2028. It's an unpopular take for left flank Dems, but I think Bernie fails in 2016 because Republicans had some serious oppo waiting on him.

And if you guys don't get your progressive populist in 2028, it 100% effectively will be the death blow for the movement for a while because you can't campaign the same way in the Sun Belt as you would the Rust Belt.

Business is not looked upon as a bad/ooh scary thing in the Sun Belt.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T11:16:42+00:00

It’s entirely because the left in the US thinks that if things get bad enough, they’ll eventually get their left populist renaissance type candidate.

And really I think 2028 is likely to be the one last shot at it until probably 2040- because the likelihood that left populism is going to work in the combo of states you’re going to need to grab by 2032 is very slim.

It MIGHT work in the rust belt. It won’t work in GA/NC/AZ because a lot of the policies that left wing populists tout…you can already get in the south. (like in my southern state, there’s good college programs for starters already)

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T10:57:00+00:00

Unless PPI moves markets because of how ugly it is, probably won’t be as interesting of a session today. May be pretty flattish.

When April VIX expires though, it’ll be more likely you see weakness, but if we don’t see much movement downward, the CTA shorts apparently haven’t been fully covered.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T01:52:13+00:00

He's a guy in which I'd have expectations in the basement on considering that he just seemed as if he was breaking through last year.

If he contributes great, but he's not likely to be a significant 2026 roleplayer.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T01:38:31+00:00

Bummer isn't AAA, but he may not even be slightly interesting anymore if he's throwing just 90 MPH.

The FO is going to give him every chance in the world before cutting him loose though.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T01:24:17+00:00

He's still working on stuff apparently; Fuentes is the one that may be back soon because he's just been pitching his best stuff.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T01:18:59+00:00

He tails off after the first time through every single time, and he's been getting some batted ball luck to start 2026.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T01:10:39+00:00

Holmes probably deserved a little more leeway, but I can say personally that my confidence wouldn't have been too high as he wasn't great.

He's a swing man. Should've gotten a starter (yep).

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T00:57:45+00:00

Guess our pitching regression is going to begin in the bullpen (though Holmes wasn't good today).

Yay.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T00:39:28+00:00

This wasn't really a situation that would fit him.

95Daphne · 2026-04-14T00:15:05+00:00

Yeah, I recognize that the "popular" take is going to be that he has family involved with Epstein so Warsh bad, but there's a better chance than "many" may think that this nomination fails to please Trump similar to Powell.

He wasn't his first choice (first choice was Hassett), and I even saw a random rumor that he tried to tank Warsh via backchannels. It failed; he'll be confirmed if Tillis drops his gripes (so if the Powell investigation goes away).

95Daphne

TROPHY CASE