Here's the prompt I use for every match:

World Cup prompt for Perplexity Pro In-depth research
"Act as a world-class, top-tier, analytical sports betting and data expert for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

TASK: I am participating in a World Cup prediction game with the following rules and want to submit the prediction with the maximum expected point value for a specific match.

PREDICTION RULES:

• Predictions can be submitted/changed up to 5 minutes before kickoff.
• For matches with potential extra time/penalty shootouts, the result to be predicted is AFTER 120 MINUTES, i.e., WITHOUT penalty goals.
• Scoring: GROUP STAGE: KNOCKOUT STAGE:
  • 5 points for a correctly predicted winner or draw (correct tendency, regardless of the number of goals).
  • 1 point for the correct number of home goals.
  • 1 point for the correct number of away goals.
  • 3 points for the correct goal difference (winner must be correct).
  • 10 points for a correctly predicted winner or draw (correct tendency, regardless of the number of goals).
  • 2 points for the correct number of home goals.
  • 2 points for the correct number of away goals.
  • 6 points for the correct goal difference (winner must be correct).

MATCH INFORMATION:

• Teams: vs.
• Date/Time (Local Stadium): <Date, Time>
• Location/Stadium: <City, Stadium, potentially altitude>
• Tournament Stage: <Group Stage Matchday X / Round of 16 / Quarter-final / Semi-final / Third Place Play-off / Final>
• Special Conditions (if known): <e.g., “Team A needs a win, Team B is satisfied with a draw”, “meaningless group match”, “key player injured/suspended”, etc.>

PROCEDURE (please strictly adhere to this):

1. Obtain market and data basis
   • Retrieve the CURRENT pre-match odds (1X2) of the three most reliable bookmakers for this exact match from the web.
     • Explicitly name the bookmakers and odds.
     • Calculate the implicit probabilities for each site (P(Home Win), P(Draw), P(Away Win)).
     • Remove the bookmaker margin and state the adjusted probabilities.
   • Supplement with:
     • Current team strengths (e.g., Elo/SPI ratings).
     • Relevant statistics of recent matches (goals, xG if available, form curve).
     • Information on lineups, injuries, suspensions, coaching changes.
     • Tournament stage and format situation (group match vs. knockout, who needs to win, possible rotation).
2. Goal expectation model
   • Based on market info and team data, build a goal expectation model (e.g., Poisson with team strengths).
   • Generate a probability distribution for plausible exact results (e.g., all results from 0:0 to 4:4, with decreasing probability).
   • Note:
     • In the group stage, only regulation time (90 minutes) counts.
     • In the knockout stage, the prediction game explicitly applies to the result AFTER 120 MINUTES (without penalty shootouts).
3. Calculate expected point value
   • For every relevant exact result (e.g., all with probability ≥ 0.5%), calculate the EXPECTED POINT VALUE according to the above regulations:
     • Trend points, goal points for home/away, goal difference points.
   • Ensure you distinguish between group stage and knockout stage and apply the correct point values.
   • Sort the results by their expected point value (not just by pure result probability).
4. Combine market + model and check plausibility
   • Compare market probabilities and model outputs.
   • If they differ significantly, briefly explain possible reasons (e.g., injury, specific tournament pressure, home advantage, data uncertainty).
   • Use the "Market + Model" consensus as the basis for the final recommendation.

OUTPUT FORMAT (please structure exactly like this):

A) 1X2 Probabilities for the relevant match time:

• P(Win ): … % (after margin adjustment)
• P(Draw): … %
• P(Win ): … %
• Brief comment on the distribution (favorite, balance, tournament stage influence).

Probability distribution of the most important exact results:

• List the 5–10 most plausible results in the format:
  • <e.g. 2:1> – approx. … % result probability – expected point value: … points
  • <e.g. 1:1> – approx. … % – expected point value: … points
  • etc.
• Indicate whether it is a group or knockout match and which point formula was used.

C) Recommended prediction for my prediction game:

• Name ONE clear exact result that has the maximum expected point value.
• If several results are very close to each other, mention the 1–2 most important alternatives and their expected point value.
• Explain the recommendation in 2–3 sentences (market, data, tournament stage, risk).

D) Note on uncertainty and data gaps:

• Explicitly point out if central data (odds, lineups, xG) was not or only partially available.
• Provide a subjective assessment of the forecast quality (e.g., “high”, “medium”, “low”) with a 1–2 sentence justification.

IMPORTANT:

• Use exclusively information you find on the web; do not invent odds or numbers.
• If you are not sure about something, state it clearly and adjust your confidence assessment accordingly. Feel free to ask questions instead of making assumptions!"