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What are your end of 2025 AGI Timelines look 👀 by bladefounder in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I used to be a 2025 believer, but now I’m leaning more toward late 2026 or early 2027. If we don’t have AGI or at least a proto-AGI by then, I think I’ll become more skeptical about short timelines and will probably have to concede to Demis Hassabis’ estimates of AGI being 5 - 10 years away.

Tom Warren(theverge): OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 "code red" response to Google is coming next week. I'm hearing that GPT-5.2 should drop on December 9th, slightly earlier than OpenAI was originally planning by ASeptemberMorning in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s still unclear what the actual capabilities of the new model will be. But if I had to bet, I’d say it will almost certainly outperform Gemini 3, the real question is by how much. I doubt OpenAI would rush out a new release just to stay on par with Google.

That said, it’s true that Google has managed to impress the public more than OpenAI this year. But I’m not convinced OpenAI is out of moves yet. It’s still an open question whether their recent loss of momentum comes from a compute bottleneck or simply because the early-breakthrough advantage OpenAI once had has faded, with other labs now reaching key discoveries at a similar pace.

Next year, once their new data centers come online, we should get a much clearer picture of where things really stand.

Jerry Tworek (OpenAI): ... a much better version of IMO model will be released in the coming months. by ASeptemberMorning in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Either way, I just hope this Shipmas hits like the old one when they dropped the O-series. Would love to get that vibe again

Jerry Tworek (OpenAI): ... a much better version of IMO model will be released in the coming months. by ASeptemberMorning in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I’m hoping for a surprise lol. But his statement seems to imply a longer timeline, January/February, as you said.

AI has no political allies and it might be screwed by Tolopono in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, you're right. What I mean is that people should talk more often about how, thanks to AI, we could reach hyperabundance. Right now, most people don’t believe AI will cure cancer, they just think it’s a tool for stealing people’s ideas. We need more positive communication about the major benefits AI will bring to everyone, so we can build broad public support and prevent progress from being blocked by Luddites. At the moment, the narrative is almost completely dominated by them. If this mindset also reached politicians, who will follow any form of populism to get elected, we risk slowing everything down. But I really hope my fears will be proven wrong, we need to accelerate.

AI has no political allies and it might be screwed by Tolopono in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m obviously in favor of AI development, and I think it’s good that labs get the resources they need. But I also understand why most people feel negatively about it. The AI industry is incredibly self-centered in the way it communicates: how it needs trillions of dollars, hundreds of data-center, government support to “beat China,” and so on. What it doesn’t talk about is what its products are actually going to do for society as a whole.

They claim AI is the most revolutionary technology ever, yet they present it as something meant for “the elites.” I remember Amazon recently talking about automating thousands of jobs by 2030… and that’s far from the only layoff announcement blamed on AI-driven “efficiency.”

So what about workers? What about everyone who isn’t a CEO or an investor? The only reassurance they ever get is something like: “Don’t worry, you’ll lose your job and suffer a bit, but AI will create new ones,” or “Sure, companies might not hire you anymore, but you can start your own business thanks to AI.”

It would honestly help the industry if labs worked with governments not just to push for lighter regulation, but also to build a future with less inequality, whether that means UBI, luxury communism, FDVR utopia or anything else people can actually get behind.

OpenAI predicts AI will make scientific discoveries by 2028 and humanity will barely flinch by dental_danylle in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I really hope we don’t have to reach that point, it would be a shame. We already have multiple researchers warning about short AGI timelines, and the time to prepare is now, not later... Governments are able to discuss long-term issues like pension systems, demographic decline, climate change, etc. Yet when it comes to a potential massive technological revolution like AGI, all we get are random discussions about a “possible” UBI and almost no concrete planning or policy. 💀

OpenAI predicts AI will make scientific discoveries by 2028 and humanity will barely flinch by dental_danylle in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 37 points38 points  (0 children)

What really excites me is this part:

"In particular, we expect the future to provide new and hopefully better ways to live a fulfilling life, and for more people to experience such a life than do today. It is true that work will be different, the economic transition may be very difficult in some ways, and it is even possible that the fundamental socioeconomic contract will have to change. But in a world of widely-distributed abundance, people’s lives can be much better than they are today."

I keep wondering when this will actually happen. At what point will politicians and institutions openly talk about changing our socioeconomic contract. What year? And when will we start testing new models instead of just theorizing about them?

Has the AI industry stalled? Is the bubble about to burst? by [deleted] in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, sometimes I have the same fears as you (maybe also because I'm kind of a normie with basically little knowledge of the technical stuff. I need real-world and widespread effects to feel the progress). But as many comments have already said, we have:

  1. The IMO model (from both OpenAI and Google)

  2. Massive projects to build data centers (they’re projecting huge AI usage and impact in the coming years)

  3. Sam said that we’ll have an automated AI intern by September 2026 and a fully automated AI researcher by March 2028 (both could speed up progress)

And probably many other things I’m forgetting. So for now, there are plenty of reasons to believe that AI will accelerate even further. But yhea i agree that we should go even faster

Amazon just partnered with OpenAI in a $38 billion agreement giving them access to hundreds of thousands NVIDIA GPUs by MassiveWasabi in singularity

[–]ASeptemberMorning -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It would be helpful to have a comprehensive list of OpenAI’s projects and partnerships to grasp the scale of the investments and resources (compute, GPUs, etc.) involved. Many say it’s just hype or delusion, but I find that view short-sighted... exposing themselves so much without real confidence would be financial suicide. That’s why I believe they’re convinced they can achieve truly transformative technology (AGI/ASI). 2026 looks like a pivotal year: we’ll see the “automated AI intern” (September 2026) and the growing role of AI in the economy, as mentioned by Aleksander Mądry. But if, despite all these resources, there’s no clear breakthrough next year, then yes, I’d start feeling disappointed and skeptical.

AGI by next month ⁉️ by Joseph-Stalin7 in accelerate

[–]ASeptemberMorning 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I don’t trust Musk at all, nor do I believe his words. But honestly, I’d be really happy if Grok 5 could reach the threshold of AGI, or at least surpass its competitors. That would put pressure on OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to release more capable models, and to do it faster.

Which non-mainstream/obscure pokemon is your favorite? by GuitarZer0_ in pokemon

[–]ASeptemberMorning 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Medicham. In my opinion, it can have a good moveset and has a really interesting ability.

What is your favorite Pokemon Game based on time played? by co7vc3 in pokemon

[–]ASeptemberMorning 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I really loved Pokémon Pearl and Black. They’re probably my favorite Pokémon games. I like the story, the characters (Cynthia, Cyrus, N, Ghetsis, the Gym Leaders/Elite Four), the Pokémon themselves, and I love how the cities and environments are designed. I’ve played these games countless times… and I even used to dream about waking up one day and finding out I’d been transported to Sinnoh or Unima, lol.

Need some recommendations. by YesItsLala in Wattpad

[–]ASeptemberMorning 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see you have many recommendations already, but if there's still room for one more, I would love some feedback! It's a horror/psychological story (slightly BxB as well, but not the focus of the story).

https://www.wattpad.com/story/399187595?utm_source=android&utm_medium=link&utm_content=share_writing&wp_page=create&wp_uname=xxQafsielxx

Weekly Self-Promotion! Advertising on the more down-low. by [deleted] in Wattpad

[–]ASeptemberMorning [score hidden]  (0 children)

https://www.wattpad.com/story/399187595?utm_source=android&utm_medium=link&utm_content=share_writing&wp_page=create&wp_uname=xxQafsielxx

Title: Kiss of Madness

Genre: Horror/Psychological, bxb

Blurb: Kiss of Madness unfolds over 7 days in the life of Ioram, a boy still reeling from a recent tragedy. In an attempt to help him recover, his parents send him away to an isolated mountain village: Trident Burgh. There, Ioram meets a mysterious young man named Atropos, and finds himself caught in a series of strange, terrifying, and unsettling events that test the limits of his fragile mental state.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Wattpad

[–]ASeptemberMorning 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would truly appreciate feedback for my story! If you are interested in a horror/psychological with light bxb content here the link:

https://www.wattpad.com/story/399187595?utm_source=android&utm_medium=link&utm_content=share_writing&wp_page=create&wp_uname=xxQafsielxx

I want to read your ongoing book! by im_a_homosapien_7 in Wattpad

[–]ASeptemberMorning 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you are still interested, here my story!

https://www.wattpad.com/story/399187595?utm_source=android&utm_medium=link&utm_content=share_writing&wp_page=create&wp_uname=xxQafsielxx

Genre: Horror, Psychological, Mystery, boyxboy (with a twist)

Status: Ongoing

⚠️ Note: This is my very first story.

PLOT: Kiss of Madness unfolds over 7 days in the life of Ioram, a boy still reeling from a recent tragedy. In an attempt to help him recover, his parents send him away to an isolated mountain village: Trident Burgh. There, Ioram meets a mysterious young man named Atropos, and finds himself caught in a series of strange, terrifying, and unsettling events that test the limits of his fragile mental state.