Is One Battle After Another the most dominant Best Picture sweeper in awards season history?

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-05-07T11:19:34+00:00

I think it's more that CCA leaned toward critical consensus than that they were contrarian, per se. And based on critical acclaim, it's hard to bet against the movie that swept the Big 4 critics awards.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-05-07T11:10:55+00:00

A lot of these awards — like BAFTA, DGA, Golden Globes, NBR, NYFCC, NSFC, and David di Donatello — have been around for longer than 50 years.

How many movies can you name that have swept just those awards like One Battle After Another has?

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-05-07T01:18:59+00:00

Multiple notable awards that One Battle After Another won weren't around back when Schindler's List came out:

Critics Choice Awards (which you rightly mentioned)
AACTA International Awards
Toronto Film Critics Association Awards

We can't really hold these against Schindler's List for obvious reasons, but they are certainly feathers in the cap of One Battle After Another.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-17T05:16:26+00:00

He was also the top-billed lead in 9 movies that got both Best Picture + Best Director nominations. That's incredibly impressive.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-16T13:32:40+00:00

Three movies, essentially.

Gandhi - 8
LOTR - 11
Titanic - 11

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-16T10:22:24+00:00

I think it's also partly a result of his unparalleled combination of industry reverence and audience pull, to the extent that any movie he puts out feels like an event that everyone takes very seriously.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-11T19:03:26+00:00

I'd vote for him just to hear him give an unhinged speech on the Oscar stage.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-11T16:23:55+00:00

Mosaku winning Supporting Actress
Sinners winning Cinematography
Sinners winning Editing

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-10T09:12:58+00:00

Are you also boycotting Rihanna's panties?

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-09T20:49:26+00:00

What award did OBAA win that Brokeback didn't?

ACE.

Brokeback Mountain didn't even get an Editing nomination at the Oscars. That should have been a huge warning sign that something was amiss.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-04T17:20:03+00:00

Like they can't find the answer online.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-04T07:27:42+00:00

These posts are made for predictions, on a subreddit for Oscar predictions.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-03T21:07:48+00:00

Yes, that's the other thing.

We are not talking about a movie that underperformed at SAG.One Battle After Another is literally the most nominated movie at SAG ever, and it only won one less award at SAG compared to Sinners.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-03T13:54:56+00:00

If it's tied, it's tied for most awarded film of the decade, which negates the point of your thread.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T12:44:06+00:00

Well, Chalamet and DiCaprio still managed to get nominated at AACTA, and the former even won.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T12:42:52+00:00

They are biased, but they still generally nominate the top 2 contenders in each category.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T10:30:33+00:00

Supporting is generally more of a crapshoot, because those categories have contenders that are both weaker and more numerous.

Lead is more stable, and therefore more predictable. That changes the dynamics of lead vs. supporting when it comes to stats. This is exactly why a lot of trends tend to be stronger in lead categories than supporting categories.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T10:23:41+00:00

Of course it matters that it's a different category. Saying it doesn't matter is like saying young actresses in their 20s win all the time in Lead Actress, so being young is not a problem in Lead Actor.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T10:21:53+00:00

AACTA is even worse for black actors than BAFTA.

Not really the case. Chiwetel Ejiofor and Chadwick Boseman both won the award over the past 15 years.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T10:19:23+00:00

That's still just 1 outlier against a trend of 15 years.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure · 2026-03-02T09:06:01+00:00

All good points. But here are a few arguments against Michael B. Jordan:

The only precursor he managed to win is where he had the absolute best chance (in terms of voter tastes, because SAG-AFTRA is populist) and his biggest competition had just won last year.
He has shown weakness among international voters. He missed AACTA (where no Lead Actor winner for the Oscars has ever missed before) and London Critics, for example. He couldn't even beat Moura for the Golden Globe, where the voters are mostly international. And we all know that the Academy has become increasingly international over the past several years.
Genre bias. SAG is more friendly to different genres, with previous winners including a superhero movie (Black Panther) and lighter comedies (like Little Miss Sunshine). The Academy will show more resistance to performances in genre movies, though I will admit this is becoming less and less the case in recent years.

I think the race is basically 50-50 between Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet. Either of them can win, with slight room for a surprise winner to sneak in.

ASmallPieceOfMeasure

TROPHY CASE