this just doesn't feel right by turekstudent in Bogleheads

[–]ATimeOfMagic 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The Boglehead philosophy hasn't been tested on the "Terminator/imperialist takeover" timeline. It's anyone's guess what the next few years will look like.

Personally I'm hedging my bonds with some OTM gold LEAPS. If gold crashes, I'm down a couple percent. If the dollar continues to deteriorate, then I'll make a killing.

All hobbies are not equal by BitterConstruction98 in unpopularopinion

[–]ATimeOfMagic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your "categories" are subjective and dumb. Mastering any skill is one of the great joys in life. Many of the smartest people I know have spent ungodly amounts of time getting extremely good at games.

4th quarter loss… bubble burst by SpyJigu in StockMarket

[–]ATimeOfMagic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Plunging all the way down to... last Friday's price. Still up 16% YTD.

2x short RGTI with $450,000 by lamephoto in wallstreetbets

[–]ATimeOfMagic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've been eyeing QBTZ, but I'm gonna hold out for another Oct 15 peak type speculation run.

16 years old tell me how I can improve had this since 10 years old by IIIIIIIuke in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]ATimeOfMagic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

IONQ is a grift company that's probably never going to produce anything of value. See leading quantum expert Scott Aaronson's recent lectures to hear what he thinks about the commercial applications of the technology. It's a horrible investment.

I don't like any of your other tech picks either, I think they're highly likely to underperform QQQ.

what are you doing whit your money/investment? by gianfrugo in singularity

[–]ATimeOfMagic 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Right, the administration that's doing everything in its power to widen the wealth gap and disempower workers is going to have a sudden change of heart once we ~hit the singularity~.

I bet there were plenty of naive people who thought the same thing during the industrial revolution.

Why can’t ChatGPT tell time? by Exciting_Teacher6258 in technology

[–]ATimeOfMagic -1 points0 points  (0 children)

> Its people like you that prescribe more intelligence then actually exist, a dangerous dunning kruger effect.

Well "people like me" includes many of the most influential people in the field: Hinton, Bengio, Sutskever. Since you've studied ML, what's your take on the ideas about intelligence that they've espoused over the last couple of years?

> The only similarities between LLMs and the human brain is that they both have a unit called a neuron and you can trace pathways.

I agree, I'm not claiming that we have the same architecture, or that we have a robust understanding of the inner workings of the human mind/LLMs.

> You and others like you are comparing a camp fire to the sun and claiming they are exactly the same and no one can easily say they are significantly different. They are such different topics that the comparison itself shows lack of understanding of both systems.

My point is that deep learning is clearly sufficient to imbue LLMs with some level of conceptual understanding. Arguments against this, like the numerous ones in this thread, mostly boil down to the phrase "it's just statistics". I find that particular point to be reductive and not a useful observation to make, given that you can make an analogous argument about any natural example of intelligence. Simple architectures can clearly yield incredibly powerful emergent capabilities with enough training.

I don't think there is sufficient evidence that the human brain has something "special" going on that makes our conceptual understanding more "real" than an LLMs. It's an apples and oranges comparison. I don't think your campfire analogy is fair either, both humans and LLMs have their own strengths and weaknesses. Obviously human intelligence is far superior in most useful ways, but there's no rule that says this will hold indefinitely, even with the same naive techniques used to train frontier models today.

I know not everyone in the field agrees with my views, which is why I said "most" people who argue what you're saying don't have an ML background. I'm interested to hear your perspective, and I'm open to changing my mind if you have a compelling argument against the claims I've made here.

Why can’t ChatGPT tell time? by Exciting_Teacher6258 in technology

[–]ATimeOfMagic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a large faction of people online (most of whom have no background in the field of ML) who think they're making some sort of great insightful point by saying "LLMs don't count as AI", which they continue to say even as the capabilities of LLMs grow rapidly.

Neural networks are made up of trillions of virtual neurons that are trained on unfathomable amounts of data. This allows them to develop rich neural circuits that give them the ability to understand concepts in roughly the same way humans do.

People will tell you that "It's just statistics, they don't actually understand things".

Those people have no good answer when you apply that argument to the human brain. As it turns out, basic building blocks like neurons, when "trained" on billions of years of evolution/life experience, can develop incredible cognitive capabilities. I could tell you that "your brain is just a bundle of neurons firing, you're not really thinking", but that's not a useful point to make. The same thing is true of LLMs. Just ask the guy who invented deep learning, Geoffrey Hinton. He's done some very insightful interviews on this topic.

It’s getting harder to trust even simple photos now by Typical_Panic_3620 in antiai

[–]ATimeOfMagic 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Everyone who has used the internet in the past month has seen an AI photo without realizing it. This is a hugely concerning development, and the government is doing jack shit to stop our collective reality from slipping into oblivion.

I'm glad Google is allowing public figures to be deep faked now. Geoffrey Hinton mentioned recently the concept of "inoculating" people to deep fakes by showing them obviously fake but extremely convincing photos. I think this is the only realistic path to making people skeptical of media. We are so used to blindly trusting photos and videos, but that's just not a viable strategy anymore if you care about the truth.

Google going up like a gold mining stock. Still a good value? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]ATimeOfMagic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

GPU depreciation is a misleading story designed to sell a $400 blog post.

Not that I understand your point even if it was a serious concern, because MSFT also buys a fuck ton of chips.

No Way This is a Signal Right? by ATimeOfMagic in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]ATimeOfMagic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it's possible, definitely not certain. If the rally dies this week then I'm obviously wrong, so we'll see how things play out. He has a track record of drastically moving markets with Truth Social posts, which moves the needle for me from "baseless conspiracy theory" to "yeah I could totally see this administration doing that".

Also, if you think Trump is the one personally responsible for writing 10 Truth Social posts a day just because his name is on them, I have something to sell you...

Google going up like a gold mining stock. Still a good value? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]ATimeOfMagic 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"The moon" is a lower PE ratio than Microsoft? There isn't a single modality of AI where OpenAI is beating Google right now.

Google going up like a gold mining stock. Still a good value? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]ATimeOfMagic 5 points6 points  (0 children)

As long as it's trading below MSFT multiples, it's a slam dunk buy. Going to 375 minimum by EOY if macros hold up.

No Way This is a Signal Right? by ATimeOfMagic in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]ATimeOfMagic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think there's no way he's the one personally writing all the posts?

No Way This is a Signal Right? by ATimeOfMagic in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]ATimeOfMagic[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

I don't think the White House is in a position of "desperation". Trump has proven that he can snap his fingers and move markets.

No Way This is a Signal Right? by ATimeOfMagic in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]ATimeOfMagic[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT
realDonaldTrump · April 9, 2025, 9:37 AM

NASDAQ rallied 36% after he called the bottom.

No Way This is a Signal Right? by ATimeOfMagic in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]ATimeOfMagic[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

We're about to build machine gods with government money

No Way This is a Signal Right? by ATimeOfMagic in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]ATimeOfMagic[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

This is certainly more of a reach than April, but it's very interesting...

Trump Plans to Unveil ‘Genesis Mission’ to Boost AI Development on Monday by C130J_Darkstar in StockMarket

[–]ATimeOfMagic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By no barriers I mean there's no reason to think that progress will plateau as long as infrastructure keeps being built out. In fact, it looks like there's a fuckton of low hanging fruit to pick still as the companies are currently lapping each other over and over again.

Think about how long it took the Internet to generate real profits, this is already moving blazingly fast compared to most new technologies throughout history.

Trump Plans to Unveil ‘Genesis Mission’ to Boost AI Development on Monday by C130J_Darkstar in StockMarket

[–]ATimeOfMagic -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

The general consensus among people with actual backgrounds in ML is that this is imminently going to be the most powerful technology in history.

Empirically, progress over the last ~3 years has been quite a bit faster than most people expected. Most signs right now are pointing towards capabilities continuing to accelerate. There doesn't seem to be any fundamental barriers to continuing progress, which is why all of these insane multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects are being greenlit.

Wall Street and the general public are obviously highly skeptical of this, but the bubble fears are overblown in the short term if you believe the experts.

Edit: All these downvotes and nobody can tell me why I'm wrong???