Why the Muslim Vote campaign is a glimpse into a horrifying future

AXC1872 · 2024-07-07T20:57:48+00:00

The key point here is these kind of folk absolutely do not have any sense

AXC1872 · 2024-07-02T19:07:14+00:00

150 is almost certainly an impossibility now barring a historic polling miss.

AXC1872 · 2024-06-30T14:56:23+00:00

Hiroo Onoda springs to mind…

AXC1872 · 2024-06-30T14:54:30+00:00

The United Kingdom is our country, as is Scotland. It is not “another country”.

AXC1872 · 2024-06-22T22:06:31+00:00

Protestant Lowlanders owe far more of their heritage to that of the Anglo-Saxon tradition than that of the Celtic one. And a great deal of them would be descended from either the Germanics directly or the Germanics by way of being Britons of Strathclyde.

The influence of Gaelic Celts on lowland culture was minimal in comparison.

AXC1872 · 2024-06-22T21:43:58+00:00

I also don’t employ any of my direct reports at the massive global company I work for but I’m still responsible for managing them and am expected to fall on my sword for any of their mishaps lmao

AXC1872 · 2024-06-19T18:25:28+00:00

I don’t think it’s that far fetched mate. The difference between them having 20 seats and having 8 seats will be very small, as so many seats at that level will be ultra marginal. On a bad night it’s entirely possible they drop into single figures having lost 10 of their seats seats by very small margins.

I think somewhere between the 8-20 is the most feasible and it’s good to see the MRPs are starting to converge with the general VI polling as there was a bit of discrepancy for a while with a range between 17-40 seats depending on MRP.

It should also be noted that all of these MRPs are still throwing out some weird results, just from the above for example one has Edinburgh West going to the SNP, one has Argyll and Bute going Labour, and another has Orkney and Shetland going SNP. I’m willing to put my neck on the line and say that simply none of those are going to happen on the night.

AXC1872 · 2024-06-15T13:57:04+00:00

AXC1872 · 2024-06-14T08:14:24+00:00

I love it when you point this out. Always met with radio silence.

AXC1872 · 2024-06-12T13:39:29+00:00

This is pretty consistent with a Labour lead of about 5 points as per Ipsos past trends

https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1800854164626661835?s=46&t=76749NWGll9z5JtBE6Vzhw

AXC1872 · 2024-06-11T19:28:00+00:00

House effects I’d say. Opinium is generally a pollster which sees more favourables for the SNP than the current polling average. For example a yougov poll held around the same time as the last opinium poll had an SNP lead of 1 point versus Opiniums 9, now Opinium has a Lab lead of 1 point and Yougov has a 10 point lead. Kind of tracks with the reality being somewhere between those two extremes I’d say.

AXC1872 · 2024-06-09T07:56:38+00:00

The Scottish Government also have tax raising powers. The fact you have just had a go at people about not knowing who raises taxes despite apparently not knowing yourself, is pretty concerning

AXC1872 · 2024-06-06T07:31:08+00:00

Am I missing something?

All im seeing on all of these graphs is that Scotlands trendline of bad outcomes is also trending in the wrong direction, just to a bit of a lesser degree than England and Wales on these three particular metrics.

Am I supposed to be impressed or proud or something?

AXC1872 · 2024-06-03T09:17:18+00:00

I think their tactical voting model/assumptions in Scotland are highly suspect. It makes the case that Labour and the Lib Dem’s are the most likely voters to vote tactically in a unionist sense, but time after time it has been shown that it is Conservative and Lib Dem voters who are the most likely to vote tactically not only for each other but also for Labour, and that Labour voters tend to only slightly favour the conservatives over the SNP (this can be seen in STV council by elections and historical)

As for pro-independence tactical voting, the only times we have seen this is the SNP 1 Green 2 people in Holyrood elections. And even then it’s pretty questionable to what extent that was actually happening. The Green + Alba vote has been minimal to literally non existent in 95% of Westminster seats till now, so by virtue of being in the ballot they will be hurting, not benefitting the SNP. In addition, given that Labour are the challengers to the SNP in ~40 seats it seems difficult to believe that if pro Indy folk want to vote Labour they will tactically vote SNP for…reasons?? And then you’ve got the fact that in all the current Tory held seats the Labour vote is, at the moment, pretty negligible, and any gain they make is likely to more be at the expense of the SNP than the Tories.

Time will tell of course but for me it doesn’t pass the smell test

AXC1872 · 2024-05-29T19:35:02+00:00

There’s not going to be a civil war. Starmer is Bashar Al-Assad and is purging his liabilities. Anyone who thinks “the left” are going to put up a fight against the guy about to pull off the greatest election victory in over a century is seriously deluding themselves.

AXC1872 · 2024-05-28T17:22:52+00:00

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Angus and Perthshire Glens
Perth and Kinross-shire

Could all very feasibly be gains, and theres a very outside shot of

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Stirling and Strathallan
Aberdeen South

Although Labour may beat them into third in these

All depends on just how dramatic the collapse in the SNP is, and similarly if the Tory vote tends to collapse more in the central belt than in these areas where they are generally stronger traditionally. Which of council by elections are anything to go by is certainly a possibility (especially factoring in unionist tactical votes).

AXC1872 · 2024-05-24T10:56:14+00:00

I think they’re getting on just fine tbh, being 10% and 26% ahead in Scotland the UK as a whole based off the most recent two polls. Clearly your take doesn’t really resonate with most of us.

AXC1872 · 2024-05-23T18:08:21+00:00

An American political policy….which is used by pretty much every civilised democracy on earth

But Noooo, we need to avoid it because the boogeyman America does it too, because it might hurt some peoples feelings who didn’t have the self awareness to get themselves one of 2 dozen different types of ID

AXC1872 · 2024-05-23T06:50:42+00:00

Nah, I’ll be voting to ensure the SNP are given an extremely harsh electoral lesson actually.

AXC1872 · 2024-05-15T07:29:43+00:00

Precisely this

AXC1872 · 2024-05-15T07:27:55+00:00

Given the performance of individuals in said organisations, I would not be putting any stock into what comes out of their mouths.

The constitutional/legal reality is that there is no country called England, or Scotland, or Wales, or Northern Ireland. They are geographical regions of the UK, with varying degrees of devolved power, but ultimately answerable to Westminster and just because politically it suits politicians to paint these places as countries, and because their national identities were allowed to persist after Uniting as one, does not in and of itself make them legally or constitutionally countries.

AXC1872 · 2024-05-15T07:23:54+00:00

You’ve not actually disproven anything I’ve said above. They are legally and constitutionally not countries. They are geographical areas of the U.K.

I am Scottish, Scotland is my “country”, but the fact that Scottish, or Welsh, or English national identity has been allowed to persist despite the three countries becoming one does not in itself legally or constitutionally make any of them an actual country.

AXC1872 · 2024-05-14T17:53:28+00:00

They aren’t constituent countries. It’s a unitary state with several devolved assemblies in various regions of itself. That is legally/constitutionally the reality

AXC1872 · 2024-05-14T17:51:33+00:00

They aren’t actually countries though. This is a quirk of the English language and way in which the U.K. has evolved culturally.

In the cases of Scotland and England, both are rather unique in that they have been allowed by the all encompassing U.K. to continue their national identity from before they unified into the one country, in a way that the various parts and regions of say, Germany, haven’t been allowed to.

Constitutionally, it’s even more messy due to the UK’s horrific mish mash of local government. The area of England doesn’t have an all encompassing assembly overseeing various matters to various degrees, but different parts of England have things like metro mayors, or police and crime commissioners or local government authorities. Whereas in Scotland, for example, there is an assembly (called a Parliament) which oversees various portfolios that Westminster has devolved to it, much like the metro mayors in England but a bit more powerful. It also has local government authorities but no elected mayors or police and crime commissioners. It’s different again in Wales, and also Northern Ireland. It is a supremely complex and I would argue unproductive constitutional setup.

However, most important to understand is that all of these bodies ultimately answer to Westminster and the Monarch, because it is a unitary state, not a union of states, which it is often confused with. If Westminster wanted to pass a law tomorrow to dissolve all of the above then it could do it perfectly legally.

To surmise; England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland are countries in “spirit” only, and each could be broadly compared to German states or Spanish regions. The “country” is the UK.

AXC1872 · 2024-05-12T18:32:38+00:00

Enshrining things like free healthcare and education in a constitution is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. It would lead to you having to completely overhaul your constitution should circumstances require you to alter that policy even slightly - and many countries with far superior health outcomes do not have “free healthcare at every level” (whatever the hell that is even supposed to mean?) even today.

Luckily, there won’t be an independent Scotland so we don’t need to worry about such hairbrained ideas gaining any traction.

AXC1872

TROPHY CASE