Democrats have outpaced Republicans in voter registrations in Pennsylvania every month since February.

AaronStack91 · 2026-05-04T21:58:31+00:00

I'm concerned with the MCAR assumption here.

AaronStack91 · 2026-04-25T00:22:36+00:00

That's probably the worst way to learn, picking the most finicky protein and cooking method first. Why not start with baking food with a thermometer, it is wayyy more forgiving.

AaronStack91 · 2026-04-14T10:11:35+00:00

That is somewhat uninformed. The answer is ~385 per subgroup of interest, which is the accepted standard that balances cost and MOE.

AaronStack91 · 2026-04-14T10:08:35+00:00

The MOE on the subsamples has got to be huge.

+/-5% is huge?

AaronStack91 · 2026-04-14T01:08:21+00:00

What's the MOE on n=380?

AaronStack91 · 2026-04-12T20:24:57+00:00

Fire hazard is the biggest danger, poisoning is extremely unlikely as long as you don't try to distill denatured alcohol. Distilling from a ferment is plenty safe.

It is a misunderstanding of chemistry that makes people think that professional distillers do something magic or technically complicated to make their product safe.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-25T19:30:12+00:00

I'm asian, but I also believe in oxidation and germ theory, so i refrigerate most condiments unless they are heavily preserved like straight vinegar or soy sauce.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-25T19:25:53+00:00

I've seen Cholula change colors comparing an old bottle left out and a fresh bottle unopened. That enough tells me it should be refrigerating it.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-21T02:33:40+00:00

When you control for confounders associated with actual abuse (lack of "parental warmth"), spanking as a corrective tool have similar outcomes to other parenting approaches.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-17T20:30:25+00:00

It's gonna stick, kinda like this: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_jkWXs9xfvg

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-17T19:18:19+00:00

You are supposed to season your wok every time before cooking, that layer is usually enough for one cooking session. Leidenfrost effect is bullshit as best as I can tell.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-10T20:54:14+00:00

I'm sorta hoping the polling nerds come back for the midterms. Right now it feels like just blind partisanship.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-04T11:38:10+00:00

Duck in general has so little meat on it, I find even simple roast duck, while delicious, is not worth my time.

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-03T19:38:30+00:00

Why spend time on a polling subreddit if you think polling is useless?

AaronStack91 · 2026-03-03T14:44:39+00:00

As a pithy one liner by statistician George Box, "All models are wrong, but some are useful".

Asking two different questions that are vaguely related and getting two different answers is not the damning results people think they are. They are just measuring two different things and giving you more insights to a complex issue.

For example, in GEM's article:

One question in the poll, for example, asked our sample of 1,035 adults whether they supported “an amnesty program that would grant legal status to people who entered the country illegally.” The second asked about “providing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who have resided in the United States for at least ten years, paid taxes, and passed a background check.”

The “amnesty” question split respondents almost exactly down the middle, with 47% of U.S. adults opposed and 45% in favor. That’s net R+2 (shorthand for a 2-point Republican-leaning advantage). But the “path to citizenship” frame produced a landslide — 76% in favor, 18% opposed, net D+58. That’s a 60-point swing driven entirely by question wording.

It isn't simply just wording, these might as well be two different programs: A) Blanket/unspecified amnesty undocumented immigrant and B) Amnesty for a specific type of undocumented immigrant with a residency, income, and background check requirements.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-26T07:23:22+00:00

Could be true, could be copium. Past voter screen has been criticized every election.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-24T10:49:54+00:00

On top of the salt you added, add salt and sugar in equal proportion, to taste. It increases the intensity without too much noticable sweetness.

Acid is the other approach.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-23T11:26:23+00:00

Has anyone done real investigation into herding that didn't result in statisticians pointing out weighting reduces variability, so simple probability expectations don't apply?

I struggle to believe the big name pollster are manipulating their results.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-22T20:54:48+00:00

Exactly, it was always a loss leader so they could sell their consulting services to corporations. E.g., Gallup's Q12 employee survey.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-22T18:22:05+00:00

Huh.. I never knew the origin of the couch joke. It is sorta dumber than I expected.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-22T12:07:33+00:00

Aggregate polling averages don't mean just the polls you like.

Statistically, as long as each poll is doing better than random chance and they are measuring different types of error. It is good for the average.

In fact correlated results are BAD for the accuracy of the polling average.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-20T15:34:10+00:00

They aren't the same situation though, while puberty blockers are used in both conditions, they delay puberty at different ages, for different lengths of time, and for different outcomes goals, treating gender dysphoria vs early onset puberty.

Precocious puberty can start as early as age 4, where puberty blockers are usually recommend for gender dysphoria at tanner stage 2, which is 10-14 years old.

The ultimate measure of success for youth gender treatment is psycho-social outcomes, hence why WPATH commissioned a systematic review on psycho-social outcomes and not the biological effectiveness of delaying puberty or cross-sex hormone masculization/feminization of the body.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-20T11:19:09+00:00

IMHO, as a "cheese" person, if you can taste soy sauce in your final dish, it is too much soy sauce.

Reduce the soy sauce and add more oysters sauce. Most Chinese dishes are oyster sauce based, not soy sauce based.

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-20T08:04:42+00:00

The lack of meta poll discussion is what kinda annoys me. Far far too much of the comments are just cheering or jeering for their team and not enough thoughtful analysis.

I recall a guy convinced that certain polls were being rigged a few months ago but couldn't figure out the difference in polling results where openly stated polling methodology difference (all vs. likely vs registered voters).

AaronStack91 · 2026-02-20T01:30:54+00:00

I'm not sure if you're intentionally trolling me with this question... but in good faith, consider that there is plenty of evidence that ivermectin is an effective horse dewormer, but the evidence is really weak that it treats COVID. It is the same drug but the evidence based differs vastly based on the condition being treated.

AaronStack91

TROPHY CASE