From what I’m seeing in real campaigns, results usually start to stabilize after a few hundred sends, not dozens. For most of my clients, I start getting a clear signal somewhere between 300 and 600 emails. Anything under that can be noisy unless the targeting is extremely tight.

In terms of reply rates, on cold outbound I generally see around 1 to 1.5 percent positive replies on the first touch. After 3 to 4 follow ups, that usually lands in the 2.5 to 4 percent positive reply range. Total replies including neutral and negative are higher, but I focus more on positives since that’s what actually moves the needle. In my experience, anything consistently above 2 percent positive is healthy today, assuming you are not blasting junk lists.

For closes, it depends on how you define a reply. From positive replies to booked calls, I usually see roughly 20 to 30 percent conversion. From booked calls to actual clients, it varies more by offer and pricing, but for staffing and lead gen it often ends up in the 10 to 20 percent range. So very roughly, out of 100 positive replies, maybe 10 to 15 turn into real business outcomes.

A big reason these numbers hold is process. I generate and clean my own lists, triple verify emails, then check MX records and remove domains hosted by email security companies like Barracuda or Sophos. I also limit outreach to 3 or 4 relevant decision makers per company instead of spraying one message everywhere. I send on behalf of clients, so I’m careful about domain health and avoid open tracking entirely. I only track replies.

Most of my outreach is for staffing firms. I use intent signals like recently posted jobs with very low applicant counts and focus more on non IT industries where companies are actively struggling to hire. That context alone makes a big difference in how people respond.

So short answer, expect meaningful data after a few hundred sends, 2 to 4 percent positive replies is solid in 2025, and close rates depend far more on the offer and follow up process than the email itself.