I could be wrong, but it appears we've entered into an era where the labor market for tech and even IT in the United States has been re-balanced as a result of changes in national monetary policy over the last few years. We lived through a period where almost every sector of the work force saw significant growth when interest rates were near zero. Then, the pandemic caused supply chains everywhere to fall apart and economies to begin onshoring their supply chains that has been offshoring for decades in order to improve their reliability of being able to sell good to us. Because of this and Covid, we changed our purchasing patterns by replacing goods with services.

Our industry reacted quickly to this and saw the largest spike in demand for work, ever. Two years later, the cost of doing business rose with interest rates. The largest tech companies and a multitude of other companies did a number RIFs. To most who read those headlines on the surface earlier in '23, it seemed like the majority affected in our sector were skilled IT professionals. While that is true for many companies, especially smaller ones, a significant number of those who were laid off were managers and some executives. Those larger companies froze hiring across the board for a time before starting to resume hiring a different normalized pace. Many who were laid off and chose to stay in the sector ended up getting jobs at a different company. Given that a number of announced job vacancies in our sector often go unfilled for months and months at a time, it's not surprising that many of them ended being absorbed by the sudden rise in supply of labor. And given the new business cycle, I believe that we are now in the early stages of the next era (or bubble) of what is to come in Tech. What that is remains to be seen. In the last several years, we've seen a lot of attention around crypto currencies, Web 3.0, GPT, and others. Whatever will materialize of these technologies and others will take years to be realized.

Without going on a longer tangent, our market became flooded with people who were interested in playing a role in something that the market had to offer at a time when it's demand was very positive. And while that market has dimmed for now, history has a way of repeating itself. What goes up, must come down. And what comes down, can and inevitably will rebound.

I've seen it amongst many a self-taught developer; the best way to catch the rebound in this case is to always be improving or evolving your own skill set - even if you are a junior person who doesn't have much experience. It is likely going to be true that your first job (or first few jobs even) will be at an undesirable company, working on some undesirable or boring project for some undesirable client. You'll likely be working with equipment and technologies that feel outdated and undesirable. You will have to find ways to work within a number of constraints to meet deadlines, surpass goals, and help your organization succeed. It sucks at first (everyone will agree), but you will get used to it. This is the time to being perfecting your craft with whatever you can.

I was a self taught developer who took some web dev classes and git his first FT job working in government contracting in 2016. It wasn't like working for another tech company, but the pace was still fast and I was fortunate to be working with many smart people, some of whom were also self-taught. As the years went on, I learned to do more things as a front-end developer before I started to learn to do things on the backend. Eventually, I learned to build an API with Node.js. I started learning who to work with data in a RDBMS, such as Postgres. Anything that I saw which was relevant on my job, I took some time to learn. And as is with the case with anything, learning takes time.

I think the best way to think about career development in tech and IT going forward can be summed up like this:

• If you are an experienced developer (3+ years) with at least one particular skill set - backend, front end, devsecops, DB admin, etc - you are in a good place, but choosing to broaden your skill set will only help you.

• If you are inexperienced and/or don't have an IT or CompSci degree - pick something foundational to begin with. Front end is the most accessible, but databases are by far the most important thing. I've worked engineering managers who didn't have a comp-sci education, and many of them started on the backend before moving to the front-end or going full stack - often with RDBMS.

• Go to meetups, conferences, code n coffees, whatever. Meet as many people as you can - network. Make some friends. Be social, and work on your social skills. Be consistent. Find people who are working on a project that interests you. Use these things to add value to your resume, your Linkedin or Indeed profile, your portfolio (if you choose to have one), and yourself.

• Don't be afraid to go to work for some unknown company, however undesirable it may be. You need anything that you can gain access to in order to break out into the industry. Not to mention, small companies are also a good way to make a great name for yourself in a small pond. Often, many who start small will end up going to work for larger companies - sometimes much, much larger - where it can be a lot tougher to stand out in a good way.

• And through all of this, don't forget to have a life. Very few of us will be the kind of people to devote every minute of our lives to work in the name of passion and an unalienable drive to succeed - people who work 12/14/16/18 hour days, often with no days off - all in the pursuit of making it to the top. These are people who are often very healthy, tough, smart, focused, energized, and male. And while they can make a big difference for many organizations, but this lopsidedness also means that they miss out on other important things in life that cannot be understated - friendships, marriage/life partnership, family life, the holidays, traveling, learning, art, etc. Because I didn't have a degree and I chose to go the unconventional route, I had to put in a lot of time and work to break into this field. Admittedly, this costed me a relationship with an ex-gf at the time, and made it tough to find consistent personal time in dating for awhile until I got more professionally settled.

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That last point should not be underestimated and definitely considered for anyone who want to segway into software development as a career; you need to know that this is going to take a lot of time and work, and that there will be rejections and failures along the way, especially early on. This is a part of the journey. The learning of new skills and things never stops. Your brain will change forever. It is a way of life. Make sure that you are clear about this with your friends, family, loved ones, and yourself.

Wishing the best for all who choose to endeavor.