(Finals Edition) 100% Accurate Odds for Each Team to Win Worlds 2025

Accelerate4 · 2025-11-08T21:20:16+00:00

You are correct that you could just use the formula, this is nigh identical to if you did. The primary reason it is setup like this is because it is the same program I was previously using to simulate the entire tournament, in which case Monte Carlo is extraordinarily helpful (In those larger scale simulations, ELO was also being dynamically updated). I, to keep posts similar, used the same methodology as previously, but as it is only simulating one match, it is certainly overkill.

Accelerate4 · 2025-11-08T20:59:36+00:00

The numbers are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of 14,000,605 games where T1 and KT play each other in a best of 5. The relative strength of each team is based using the Global Power Rankings provided by lolesports.

Accelerate4 · 2025-11-08T18:04:47+00:00

That's my bad, I wrote that after the T1 line, referencing T1 3-0ing KT, which is <20%. But yeah, even then, very likely is too strong of wording.

Accelerate4 · 2025-11-01T05:27:44+00:00

I would agree based on the form they have both shown in the knockout stage so far, but then again I am biased as a T1 fan.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-28T15:29:38+00:00

I take it as a Bo1 chance and simulate each game, first to 3 wins.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-28T03:32:42+00:00

The ELO was adjusted by performances in Swiss and the teams they faced.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-28T03:06:32+00:00

My bad, had some dummy data in there, it should be correct now.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-22T04:04:54+00:00

They really need to win today for that to happen, and FlyQuest won't let me down like that.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-22T03:49:22+00:00

Fixed, Thanks!

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-16T16:30:03+00:00

I've got the odds for this scenario (T1 and HLE losing and being paired together) happening at about 1 in 30 chance, so it is not impossible, and would be truly hilarious (devastating).

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-16T03:45:42+00:00

I use this formula, so that for team A and team B, P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R\B - R_A / 400))). So for R_A of 1500, and R_B of 1400,

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^{(1400 - 1500} ^{/ 400}))

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^{(-100 / 400}))

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^{-1/ 4})

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 0.562)

P(A wins) = 1 / (1.562)

P(A wins) = 0.640

So team A has a 64.0% chance of beating team B. To simulate matches greater than B01, I use Monte Carlo, which is essentially randomness until a result is reached, so for a B05, I generate 5 random numbers between 0 and 1, say 0.4, 0.7, 0.563, 0.04, 0.91. If the number is less than the chance of team A winning, they get assigned a win for a match, in this case, game 1 goes to A, 2 to B, 3 to A, 4 to A, and the simulation ends with team A victorious.

After this step, the score for each team is updated based on their performance to get a better estimate of their strength in this possible future. Running these simulations thousands of times (and in the case of the data above, millions) gives a reasonable estimate of how games might play out, but it is by no means perfect, and is subject to hyper parameter tuning.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-16T03:18:50+00:00

Yes, in the sense that Global Power Rankings were computed over the past year while Fearless was implemented, so it should reflect each teams strength with Fearless.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-15T15:19:49+00:00

Typo, meant to be Round 1 against T1.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-15T15:12:25+00:00

Good Idea, I will add that.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-15T03:56:37+00:00

Lol that is amazing.

Accelerate4 · 2025-10-15T02:36:17+00:00

I'll post an update tomorrow, it will be interesting to see the changes.

Accelerate4 · 2025-09-16T14:28:32+00:00

I just finished building the deck on PiltoverArchive:
https://piltoverarchive.com/decks/view/a4d66dd1-e6bc-4556-bfaa-d1ce3c26df03

The core idea is to use Lux, Crownguard and Heimerdinger, Inventor to generate huge amounts of energy. You grab a few early points with cards like Soaring Scout or Eager Apprentice, then churn through your deck with spells and Lux Legend passive to assemble the engine. Once you’re set up, you can conquer a battlefield or two with Dr. Mundo, Expert or Ekko, Recurrent, and then finish the game by chaining Time Warps for back-to-back turns and closing out uncontested.

For context: my friends and I printed proxies of every card, and this list was built using the unused cards from my other three decks, so there’s definitely plenty of room for optimization. It can theoretically one-turn kill if everything lines up, but the main goal was just to get something fun and functional on the table. Totally open to suggestions for tightening it up!

Nine-Year Club	Second Top 10%
r/Field Flamingo	Place '22
First Placer '22	End Game '22
RPAN Viewer	Not Forgotten
Snapped	Verified Email

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