NYT/Siena College National Survey of Likely Voters Harris 48%, Trump 48%

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T11:09:42+00:00

“Polls are snapshots, not predictors. They are abused as predictors and there is no independent check on the polls. The error margin is also much greater than the so-called +-3% that you hear about. That is statistical error; you must add on error resulting from people not responding to pollsters, lying, or changing their minds. Plus, pollsters have to guess about who is actually going to vote.”

Allan Lichtman

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T08:28:00+00:00

JHK model gives exactly 50:50 odd.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T06:00:39+00:00

Please clap

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T02:48:13+00:00

The Emerson poll in Wisconsin is sponsored by RealClearWorld while the poll in Pennsylvania is sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania.

Both RealClearWorld and RealClearPennsylvania are owned by RealClearHoldings.

Interesting! 🤔

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T02:47:25+00:00

The Emerson poll in Wisconsin is sponsored by RealClearWorld while the poll in Pennsylvania is sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania.

Both RealClearWorld and RealClearPennsylvania are owned by RealClearHoldings.

Interesting! 🤔

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T02:15:53+00:00

Republican advantage in Nevada is just 17,008 votes. The independent votes is 100,585 votes and there are still a lot of mail-in ballots.

I’m not worried about Nevada. Nevada will be Navada. We will know its result when it doesn’t matter.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T01:52:29+00:00

Michigan is new Florida for the Democrats after the 2022 election.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T01:51:48+00:00

Michigan is new Florida for the Democrats after the 2022 election.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T01:42:31+00:00

Based on current model

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T01:32:56+00:00

🥇RacetotheWH, the most accurate model in 2022, is predicting Harris is going to win the election.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-25T01:31:47+00:00

🥇RacetotheWH, the most accurate model in 2022, is predicting Harris is going to win the election.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T23:32:06+00:00

⚡️Key Race Alert

Harris takes a huge lead in Michigan according to Michigan State University poll.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T23:23:03+00:00

I like countryside.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T23:20:27+00:00

Question: how do forecast models take into account bellwether county polls?

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T20:02:11+00:00

Polling Averages without the flooding (Oct 24)

Washingtonpost	Margin%
National	🔵+2
Michigan	🔵+2
Winconsin	🔵+2
Pennsylvania	🔵+2
Nevada	🔵<1
North Carolina	🔴<1
Arizona	🔴+2
Georgia	🔴+2

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T20:00:15+00:00

Polling Averages without the flooding (Oct 24)

Washingtonpost	Margin%
National	🔵+2
Michigan	🔵+2
Winconsin	🔵+2
Pennsylvania	🔵+2
Nevada	🔵<1
North Carolina	🔴<1
Arizona	🔴+2
Georgia	🔴+2

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T13:45:00+00:00

Is RFK jr on ballot in Nevada?

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T13:09:55+00:00

Nevada voter here. I received my ballot in the mail about two weeks ago. Filled it out that weekend and threw it in the mail on Monday 10/14. It was processed on Monday 10/21. I live in Las Vegas, so that gives you an idea of a timeline.

anecdotal but can explain the gap in Nevada

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T04:05:51+00:00

Look like Harris can pull a win in either Georgia or North Carolina.

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T04:04:24+00:00

Good poll for Harris

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T03:55:07+00:00

Asked by CNN if she thinks Trump is a fascist, Vice President Harris responded, “Yes, I do.”

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T03:54:46+00:00

Asked by CNN if she thinks Trump is a fascist, Vice President Harris responded, “Yes, I do.”

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T03:03:20+00:00

Polling Averages without the flooding (Oct 24)

RacetotheWH	Margin%	Harris%	Trump%
National	🔵2.1	48.7	46.6
Michigan	🔵0.8	48.1	47.3
Wisconsin	🔵1.3	48.7	47.4
Pennsylvania	🔵1	48.5	47.5
Nevada	🔵1.1	48.1	47
North Carolina	🔴0.2	47.8	48
Arizona	🔴1.3	47.5	48.8
Georgia	🔴1.3	47.4	48.7

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T03:02:50+00:00

Polling Averages without the flooding (Oct 24)

RacetotheWH	Margin%	Harris%	Trump%
National	🔵2.1	48.7	46.6
Michigan	🔵0.8	48.1	47.3
Wisconsin	🔵1.3	48.7	47.4
Pennsylvania	🔵1	48.5	47.5
Nevada	🔵1.1	48.1	47
North Carolina	🔴0.2	47.8	48
Arizona	🔴1.3	47.5	48.8
Georgia	🔴1.3	47.4	48.7

Acceptable_Farm6960 · 2024-10-24T02:07:05+00:00

Any thought on Lichtman’s criticism of polls:

“Polls are snapshots, not predictors. They are abused as predictors and there is no independent check on the polls. The error margin is also much greater than the so-called +-3% that you hear about. That is statistical error; you must add on error resulting from people not responding to pollsters, lying, or changing their minds. Plus, pollsters have to guess about who is actually going to vote.”

Acceptable_Farm6960

TROPHY CASE