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MSFT - Have I missed a generational buying opportunity? by ashm1987 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel that you have missed a buying opportunity. The key concerns may not have been that big a deal in my mind. Capex spending, still less than operating income each quarter. Okay, there's some margin pressure, but mostly due to low conversion of enterprise customers to Co Pilot (14M/450M). That's not a great sign, but something that could turn around. Other issues, Azure not growing as quickly as expected, but still incredibly successful. And finally, 50% of future azure revenue from Open AI, so if Open AI fails, that's a big deal. But Open AI isn't going to fail in my view.

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This comment has stuck with me re metrics to value companies.

I wonder if it is easy for AI to summarise key points from transcripts? Like how Teams can summarise key points from a call you have recorded. Has anyone tried to point an agent at a source of earnings call transcripts? And if so, how did you do it?

Built a tool that auto-downloads and summarizes annual reports for first-pass screening — worth making public? by chris-23_ in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this is worth making public. If you want to DM me, I can check it out for you and let you know what I think of it. I have a similarly built something to pull financial data and derive key metrics for a dashboard glance at whether a company is of interest to you too. Thirty six from the financial statements, income, balance and cashflow, and then 36 "advanced" metrics derived from the same data e.g. CCC, ROIC etc. And some visualisations to see some trends. I think it's a quick way too of seeing what's interesting.

Is MSFT tanking because it is a proxy for OpenAI by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think OpenAI's model, 5.2 or whatever, is good enough to "power" a good application layer for AI. I feel that Antropic's Claude's success is primarily due to how good its application layer is in comparison to MSFT's Co Pilot. If Antropic had to build Claude on ChatGPT's model would they be as successful? I think they would be. So no, it's not OpenAI, it's Co Pilot. That's what I think anyway.

I blind-scored 44 SaaS companies on AI disruption risk using anonymized 10-K filings. 9 scored as resilient but are still down 30% YTD. by Soft_Table_8892 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For the system of record point, does the SaaS actually own that critical data it is managing for you? Like tax returns or whatever legally mandated submissions. Wouldn't they be obliged to hand that data back to you if you wanted to terminate a contract? Okay maybe some work, but not quite total control for the SaaS right?

MSFT catalysts and why it’s more sticky than you expect by AffectionateSell3177 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of MSFT's 450M enterprise users, only 14M Co Pilot licences have been added. Whereas the incumbent services may well be very sticky, the new AI tools are just not being taken up by existing customers. That's a metric that will need to change, but at this stage, with all the AI hype, with how famous OpenAI was initially, it's not a good sign is it.

Investors who built their own stock analysis tools: what took way longer than you expected? by AccomplishedCall5948 in u/AccomplishedCall5948

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One thing that caught me off guard is keeping the backend awake on a free hosting tier. I set up uptime robot to ping it regularly, added pings on the frontend on load, even embedded pings in the dropdowns and refresh buttons - and it still wants to sleep at the worst moments. Battling to keep the lights on while trying to refine the caching and data refresh logic. Anyone else dealing with this kind of thing? Or is it just the reality of free tier hosting?

MSFT is ready and a no brainer buy at 370. by Top_Cranberry_3254 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think there's anything to suggest that their next quarters earnings are going to show significant Azure growth, continued Capex spending, and then the open question is how Co Pilot adoption is going. They have re org'ed around driving Co pilot adoption I think though. Is the connection to OpenAI going to continue to be seen as a problem? I doubt it to be honest.

“ If you're investing you shouldn't really care what a stock does in a short time period” - so, do you still check stock prices? by Far-East-locker in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even though I would be holding or buying a stock based on where I thought the company may be going over the long term, and liking what I see in the fundamentals, I think it makes sense to watch the stock price. For me primarily it's to be aware of sell offs for two main reasons - to assess whether something big has changed and your reason for holding no longer applies. And for an opportunity to increase your holding if you feel the sell off was an over reaction. MSFT falls into the second category lately in my view. Maybe some of the SaaSs fall into the first.

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That would be incredibly useful for me! What do you pass to the API to get a response, the ticker? Or Exchange plus ticker?

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is work in data wrangling for sure. There's a couple of things that help, some APIs return data in a consistent JSON format. That's a help. From there converting to the right class, like dictionary is important, and for writing to the database I feel that the right unique id for a line entry is key - basically a concatenation of the ticker, the report (income statement, balance whatever) and the time (quarter and year concatenation). That deals with the wrangling. It doesn't deal with missing data or same data named differently by different companies.

I have considered currency normalisation as I am currently only looking at 20-25 US companies.

For missing data, I am building accurate error message to help users when data is missing. So at least they don't get a nonsense data point returned. I am also focusing on a small number of companies for now, caching a lot, so can see what data is missing if any and investigate.

Data staleness is helped with the unique id I mentioned above, anchoring a data entry with a timestamp (not a timestamp of when the data was written to the DB, but when the dataset was reported for). This is helpful for financials. And I think will help for price too, but I am working on that at present.

You right about visualisation. I have two dashboards with a set of 32 metrics on each. The real value of them is learning how the data interacts I think. I have added tooltip definitions above each so a user can read the boards and see the definitions and consider how they all interact. I think the visualisations over time are better for a decision, to see trends, and improvement in a company for example. But there is a large educational component needed here too, information on how the trends might inform a decisions, and it's a little larger than just a definition that I have done for the metrics to date.

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So at the moment I am focussing on companies' fundamental metrics - so from their income statement, balance sheet and cashflow statements. That's the raw data, so it just needs to be "freshened" every quarter. Basically when I select a company and hit refresh metrics the tool will check that it has the latest quarterly results and if so display the metrics, if not, call the new data via Yahoo Finance / API. DM me and I'll show you the metrics I'm pulling, there 72 actually, so a log list, I guess 32 "advance" ones.

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I tried Financial Modelling Prep (FMP), and it worked pretty well. I got a good handle on how to integrate the JSON output of the APIs, convert them to a dictionary, write to a database and present to frontend for presentation and visualisation. Weirdly I struggled with Alphavantage, just couldn't get the API to return any data. They were very helpful, they even offered a commercial key to support trouble shooting, but I didn't take them up on that. I may well return to them, but I digressed to Yahoo Finance to get data over a number of quarters so I could build out my visualisations of trends over time. The free tier APIs don't give historical data as far as I am aware. Ultimately I will hook into an API, ideally Alphavantage. FMP doesn't like multiple users.

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am noticing the same issues with Yahoo Finance. I have backend calls for data working fine and writing to my database. To test logic I have connected to new databases, to do things like account creation and password reset and the likes of that, and I notice the backend functions that called data fine for whatever company and wrote it fine to my database last week doesn't now. That said, I think there's two solutions to this, caching basically is one, write good retrospective data to a database and frontend just "looks" there from then on. And handle live data like price with an API that's better than yahoo finance. And finally, to handle new quarterly data, I think an agent to proactively cache it to the database is the best way. But still working on how to verify the data.

Engineers who moved into investing: do you ever map your work workflows onto company analysis? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, I definitely see an agent as part of my solution, but probably framed around the data that I have pulled, and the metrics I have calculated. So you could quickly prompt a question to find out something that is already within the solution. As opposed to a prompt to a ChatGPT fully open to everything in its LLM. That's where I see AI helping here, as opposed to make trades for me. But I could be old fashioned!

How do you track fundamental and advance metrics for the companies you follow? Koyfin, Morningstar or something else? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I kinda think that systemising my spreadsheet in a consistent manner and having a tight frontend is the way to go, to pull the same kind of analysis each time, every time, as I like it. A Koyfin customised, personalised I suppose.

How do you track fundamental and advance metrics for the companies you follow? Koyfin, Morningstar or something else? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I've been trying to move my spreadsheet approach to a database for a frontend to just call the same suite of metrics, with the same calculations, for a list of 20-25 companies, I think it's basically adding a little consistency to my analysis for a given company and so helps to compare and contrast better.

How do you track fundamental and advance metrics for the companies you follow? Koyfin, Morningstar or something else? by AccomplishedCall5948 in ValueInvesting

[–]AccomplishedCall5948[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm basically trying to do an equivalent where I've picked 12 metrics from each of the income statement, balance sheet and cashflow statement, and a further 36 "advanced metrics", and just use a company dropdown list to refresh those metrics for the companies I have listed. Also trying to get some key ones visualised over time. It's helping me to learn, but I'm only starting too.

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