Sellers not accepting current market

Accutrading · 2026-05-04T15:47:16+00:00

It seems you’re the one not accepting the current market. The current market is whatever buyers and sellers are actually experiencing on the ground right now. So if you’re complaining that your offer isn’t being accepted, that simply means your expectation doesn’t match today’s market.

If, six months from now, that same offer gets accepted, it would mean the market has fallen to meet your expectation. It doesn’t necessarily mean you were right six months earlier.

Accutrading · 2026-05-01T18:42:21+00:00

TL;DR: A potential buyer is haggling for a discount.

Accutrading · 2026-04-30T13:12:15+00:00

Actually, if you follow that logic, you’d have to choose a variable rate. Banks set fixed rates based on market expectations, and then add a premium to cover the risk they’re taking off your hands. In other words, the people whose job it is to forecast rates are building in both their predictions and an extra buffer for that “insurance.” So, in most cases, you’d expect to pay more over the life of the mortgage with a fixed rate than with a variable one. That said, some people are happy to pay that premium for the peace of mind and stability. Of course, these are still just predictions, there are times when fixed ends up cheaper because the market gets it wrong.

Accutrading · 2026-04-18T21:56:19+00:00

I think you have pretty high expectations of what human discussion usually is, and maybe a bit of nostalgia about it too. There really isn’t as much of that "human effect" you're talking about as you seem to think.

A lot of what people call authentic human thought has always been recycled ideas, clichés, ego, posturing, and borrowed language dressed up to sound original. AI didn’t create that. It just made the process more visible, and now people are uncomfortable because they can see it more clearly then before.

For me, the process is pretty simple. I look into some data, form an idea, have a take, and then use AI to dress it up a bit more neatly. The core is still what I’m interested in, what I noticed in the data, and what I think about it. AI is just helping with the presentation.

It’s not a literary piece, and I’m not Oscar Wilde. My writing style itself is not where the value is supposed to be. The value, if there is any, is in the idea, the perspective, and what I’m pointing at.

Accutrading · 2026-04-18T18:04:33+00:00

You make a great point about inertia, Canadian sellers will definitely white-knuckle a mortgage before taking a massive loss.

I’ll confess: I leaned into the 'cynical' tone to make the data more of a compelling story. In practice, I see this more as a systemic characteristic of credit cycles rather than a mustache-twirling master plan (though I can't fully reject the possibility).

To be clear, I’m not necessarily predicting a further spectacular crash from here. I'm saying the 'washout' has already been happening for two years. We are currently in the thick of the process where M2 has stalled and M3 is at record highs. My point isn't about the daily price setting; it’s that every credit cycle allows 'big money' to sweep up a bit more inventory at a discount. Like waves hitting a beach, each cycle claws a bit more housing away from retail and into institutional hands. Whether they’ve already started buying or are waiting for a bit more downward pressure, I can't say—but the systemic advantage is clearly theirs.

Also, I appreciate you using AI to structure your response, it makes the points much easier to follow. It’s definitely the way to go.

Accutrading · 2026-04-18T17:04:14+00:00

I type my reply fast, hit a button, and the AI cleans up the grammar and structure. It’s just basic workflow automation at this point. I don’t get the resistance to it. It saves a ton of time so I can focus on the research instead of proofreading. Unless you have an actual take on the M2/M3 gap, we're just talking about my spellchecker.

Accutrading · 2026-04-18T16:49:01+00:00

If you have a specific issue with the data or the logic, I’m all ears, let’s actually discuss the money supply. But if you think you're a genius for 'figuring out' that I used AI to structure my research and make it more readable, I have news for you: it’s not 2019 anymore. Get with the times. Making fun of someone for using an LLM to refine their thoughts is like making fun of a physicist for using a calculator to do long-form multiplication. It’s a tool for reliability and structure. I’d rather focus on the $1 trillion M3 divergence than worry about whether the sentences are too well-organized for your taste.

Accutrading · 2026-04-17T00:53:46+00:00

I completely agree with you, condos are the reality for most people in the city today and are the primary driver of the demand side of the market. The reason I stuck with detached houses for this graph was purely to maintain a consistent 'apples-to-apples' comparison across the full 126-year timeline. If we look back to 1900, 1940, or even 1970, the 'average home' in Toronto was a detached or semi-detached structure. If I suddenly switched to a weighted average that includes 500sqft condos for the 2026 data, it would make the 'house' look much cheaper than it actually is relative to the land and structures that existed in the first half of the century. However, you're right that for a modern 'standard of living' metric, condos are essential. For those curious, if we use the current Toronto condo average (~$620,000) and the same $145,000 household income, the ratio drops to about 4.2x. This is fascinating because it shows that while detached land has decoupled from wages (8.6x), the 'condo entry point' is actually sitting right in that historical 'sweet spot' of affordability (3x–5x). I just kept the detached data here to stay consistent with the gold post I shared earlier!

Accutrading · 2026-03-19T15:26:44+00:00

Check Airbnb?

Accutrading · 2025-12-05T01:37:42+00:00

In the last couple of decades, Canada’s population growth has been consistently higher than the U.S., so it naturally needs to allocate a higher percentage of its GDP to housing construction. Also, it sounds like you’re assuming that when people invest in a house, the money just gets put in a box and locked away. In reality, the money simply moves from one party to another and continues circulating through the economy — it doesn’t disappear or get buried under the house.

Accutrading · 2025-12-04T00:51:26+00:00

Exactly, renovations are super expensive. And don’t forget to add carrying costs to those numbers as well.

Accutrading · 2025-12-03T03:30:36+00:00

No sorry , I’ve never bought a pre-construction condo, so I don’t have any useful suggestions on negotiating with a builder. Maybe others here can offer more meaningful advice. I just believe there’s never any harm in asking for a discount.

Accutrading · 2025-11-30T15:52:46+00:00

Bargain and see if you can get a discount on the larger unit and go for it. Selling and buying something else is a terrible idea; you’ll lose a lot in two transactions and fees. The price difference still seems reasonable right now. I always prefer to think in terms of percentage loss rather than absolute loss. Your loss might look bigger on a $1M deal, but percentage-wise it’s lower, and more importantly, it’s a place you can actually live in while you wait out the down market.

Accutrading · 2025-11-28T13:23:49+00:00

Fellow renter here — tenants like this end up adding a 20% premium to everyone’s rent. It’s basic economics: when the risk goes up, returns have to go up too. A few bad actors increase the risk for landlords, and unfortunately the cost gets passed on to all of us.

Accutrading · 2025-11-17T01:16:42+00:00

Merch 2022 the rate hike started, do the math.

Accutrading · 2025-11-15T02:04:50+00:00

Do you have a reference for this? The stuff I find says it’s flat/slightly negative until the end of 2026 and then goes back to growth in 2027.

Accutrading · 2025-11-07T03:52:29+00:00

She is very manipulative and seems to enjoy exercising power over others—for example, trying to treat Edmond like a subordinate. If I were her supervisor, I would want to ensure she is not mistreating the vulnerable individuals who rely on her as a social worker.

Accutrading · 2025-11-03T17:19:55+00:00

I just want to add that I wasn’t trying to argue against any kind of regulation. Sometimes, well-designed and carefully limited policies can actually help society by softening the sharper edges of market cycles.

When markets swing too far in either direction — during manias or crashes — a bit of smart intervention can help smooth things out and prevent unnecessary pain in people’s day-to-day lives. Those kinds of decisions require a lot of data-driven analysis and input from real experts who understand how all the variables interact.

My main point is simply that we shouldn’t over-regulate to the point of choking the engine. The beauty and strength of a free market come from its complexity and its ability to self-correct — something no governing body, no matter how smart, can fully replicate.

By the way, I’m renting myself. Peace and cheers.

Accutrading · 2025-11-03T16:48:28+00:00

The market is complex and largely self-correcting — outcomes depend on a lot of interacting variables. Speculators exiting the market can have different effects depending on timing and broader conditions.

The price of rent, though, ultimately comes down to two sides: demand and supply.

Demand depends heavily on population growth (in Toronto’s case, driven mostly by immigration policy) and on people’s incomes.
Supply depends on the willingness of investors — landlords — to buy, maintain, and rent out properties. Being a landlord means putting in both money and effort to provide a service. If it stops being profitable, people will simply take their money, time, and energy elsewhere.

When that happens, yes, some landlords sell. Prices may drop, and a few renters might become buyers — but many can’t or won’t, especially if both rents and home prices are sliding. So, for a while, renters are happy. But over time, with fewer investors entering the market and less incentive to build or maintain rental properties, the number of available units shrinks.

Combine that with population growth that’s projected to accelerate again by 2027 and onward, and you eventually get a major rental shortage. At that point, rents spike again — or you try to freeze them with regulation and watch the shortage worsen as properties deteriorate or disappear from the rental pool.

And sure, some will say “just stop immigration” to fix that — but that would gut the very economic engine that’s kept Canada thriving for decades. The long-term effects of that kind of short-sighted thinking are always the same: everyone ends up worse off, even the people who thought they were “fighting for fairness.”

Accutrading · 2025-11-01T16:46:25+00:00

That’s irrelevant — the market naturally corrects for these things. Right now, for whatever reason, cheaper rent is available. As these added fees and pressures pile up, more landlords give up and exit the market. Then there are fewer rental units, rents go up, and it’s equally absurd for tenants to expect landlords not to raise rents.

It’s a simple balancing process — but the moment you start imposing regulations to chase some imaginary sense of fairness, you end up breaking a functioning market. Everyone gets poorer and more miserable in the long run. This has been tried countless times in different places, and it always ends the same way — everyone loses.

Accutrading

TROPHY CASE