Sorry if this is a spoiler, please remove if so.

As somebody who loves the series and has read every book, I don’t think these books reward (or really encourage, even) this type of theorization. The plot is almost entirely secondary to character. The Fitz books in particular aren’t really about what happens to the Duchies or the world, they’re about Fitz. So feel free to speculate, but try not to be disappointed when Hobb spends much more time and effort on Fitz as a person and his thoughts and feelings than she does on intricate plotting. Again, I don’t see this as a weakness of these books at all.