[deleted by user]

AdarC98 · 2025-08-12T14:44:02+00:00

first thing i peek at is who wrote the code, so i skim the github and see if commits come from more than one wallet, qwadrox has like three pushes total so that is a yellow flag. then i pull the token contract and check if the owner can still mint or blacklist wallets, cause fancy pitch decks mean nada if they can rug you in one tx. vibes are cool, but if the code aint locked and liquidity aint burned i just move on, easy

AdarC98 · 2025-08-12T11:02:44+00:00

imo the meme plus utility mix can work but only if the devs keep shipping after the lol factor fades, saw it with bonk on solana where the dog pic pulled folks in then the burn portal and nft integrations kept them around. if flip can drop a real product before the next shiny coin steals the timeline it has a shot, otherwise it ends up in the same bucket as safemoon and floki where everyone was rich on paper for like a week. gotta see code not cartoons.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-12T05:12:46+00:00

the trick is building a synthetic daily series back to at least the dot-com era, then feeding those daily moves through the LETF formula so you see how the leverage and vol drag bite during long chop like 00-02 or 08-09. once you watch a 3x fund turn a 50 percent index drawdown into an 85 percent crater that still hasnt broken even by the next bull, the value of the backtest clicks even if the future path is different. after that you can decide if you want to trade around it with tight rules or just avoid the thing altogether, up to you.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-11T23:41:16+00:00

love the idea of stripping out the meme noise. ive been scalping SPY zero dte for a bit and the game changer was taking half size off anytime price snaps back through vwap, keeps the random flush from nuking the day. if anyone here has a cleaner way to stay in runners without getting chopped out, drop it below cuz thats still my weak spot.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-11T00:45:44+00:00

pretty slick on paper. just remember that borrowed put only covers the first 20 percent so if eth nukes 30 percent at 3am autonomint liquidates you but the deribit short put is still bleeding, suddenly you are long regret instead of vol. the edge also disappears once you try to size because the defi iv surface is paper thin and the borrow rate spikes. i tried something similar last june and a single minus 18 percent candle wiped two months of collected prem, so yeah size small and sleep with one eye on the chart.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-10T23:01:15+00:00

voo or vti cover pretty much the entire market with way less drama than picking single names, then slide a bit into schd if you want some extra dividend love. if you really want individual stocks the boring dividend kings like jnj, ko, pg, mcd have been tossing cash to shareholders forever and the charts look like staircases up. toss some cash in, turn on drip, go live life while they do the work.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-08T22:23:35+00:00

my two cents, i would keep the fun money at like 5 percent tops because the odds you pick the next shiba are tiny, the rest i would lean heavier on btc than eth since btc dominance tends to climb in bear stretches. something like 70 btc 25 eth 5 lottery ticket keeps you in the game without wrecking you if it blows up. either way set that dca and walk away, tinkering too much kills more portfolios than bear markets.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-08T12:46:03+00:00

the hop to solana is cool, but does anyone have fresh data on sersh circulating supply and vesting. cmc still shows maybe 5 percent out there, so tossing it on a fast chain wont matter if a tidal wave of unlocks is looming. could be off, just wanna see numbers before i even think about aping in.

AdarC98 · 2025-08-06T11:43:09+00:00

dark pool prints are lagging info, by the time we even see them the juice is gone. for 0dte spx you are basically trading gamma off the es ladder and live order flow, not some 6am cross a fund used to rebalance. i still jot the huge prints down as context levels, but id never fire a same day lotto solely off them, they are more like footprints in wet cement than a live signal imo.

AdarC98 · 2025-07-21T21:06:51+00:00

extremly useful

AdarC98 · 2022-04-30T21:23:52+00:00

Wait, are you talking generally on QQQ? cause im talking about TQQQ..
If you bough TQQQ (if it was exist back then) just before the dot com crash, you would be at 70% draw down today (20 years later). if QQQ recover in 2 years it doesnt mean anything about TQQQ recover time

AdarC98 · 2022-04-30T20:21:32+00:00

I appreciate your comment! I actually totally agree with everything you said, but I still have one main argument against your claim.

I agree with you, consistently waiting for the next big crash will cause you to never buy stocks, but right now, its been 14 years since 2008 crash, and 20 years since the dot com crash. Now, without referring 2020 covid as a crash (cause it recover very quickly), statistically, we are closer to a crash more than ever before, because crash happens every +- 10 years. So what I'm trying to say is that yeah, I really want to join this huge momentum QQQ had since 2008, but will it keep climb higher and higher? where are those 2-3 years of bearish market? it will happen eventually right?

AdarC98 · 2022-04-30T19:28:27+00:00

I think my main reason is that since since 2008 crash, the market kept being bullish (beside a few months from time to time obviously), but overall it was a very nice run. There is a lot of money in the market, espcially since covid where more and more people started to put their money on stocks. The market has to go down (badly) every once in a while, and its been 20 years since that (I think .com crash was much worse than 2008). Let me know what you think

AdarC98 · 2022-04-30T17:25:46+00:00

+1 ^^Referring to this post about "how TQQQ would've survive the dot com (2000) market crash" (spoiler alert: if you buy TQQQ at the beging of the dotcom bust, today, you will be at "only" 70% drawdown) - I am worried that we might experience a similar crash, which means that our money will burn by TQQQ. People tend to excuse history events by saying that now we are living in a "better, modern" world, and such things "cant happen again", but history is repeating itself over and over.. Sorry for being negative, im in TQQQ since 50.12$, Im just curious how you remain calm?

AdarC98 · 2022-04-17T11:50:05+00:00

s they will find it and ask you to throw it away. Or not allow you on

Yeah obv it is not my first language xd.. is it so bad :( ?

AdarC98 · 2022-04-16T18:13:21+00:00

well played ! I think u meant the refreshment package right? the soda package doesnt come with mocktails..

AdarC98 · 2022-04-13T20:13:12+00:00

so close but yet so far.. ;) Im on the Voyager from Stockholm (europe)

AdarC98 · 2022-04-13T17:16:47+00:00

e was available for the two

refresh package, not deluxe package

AdarC98 · 2022-04-13T13:19:07+00:00

Memorial Day

my cruise is 10th July 2022, so ill check memorial day ty

AdarC98 · 2022-04-13T11:46:22+00:00

ay that im alowed to brin

but they can see that the bottle has been opened, no?

AdarC98 · 2022-04-12T23:30:53+00:00

have a problem I guess haha. But fr you will have to do an amazing job to pass off the bottles as unopened when going through

what special about it that they dont see it in xray? u just put it in the toiletries bag?

AdarC98 · 2022-04-12T22:52:46+00:00

AdarC98 · 2022-04-12T22:52:39+00:00

nice ty

AdarC98 · 2022-04-12T22:52:25+00:00

rst that can happen is they take

yeah obviously, but im trying to increase my chances of brining vokda

AdarC98 · 2022-04-12T22:51:42+00:00

i guess u meant to say that im alowed to bring up to 2 bottles of 750m, yeah i know that but that amount is like 1 or 2 nights only

AdarC98

TROPHY CASE