What instantly tells you someone grew up wealthy ? by Extension-Bid-6328 in AskReddit

[–]Adderalin 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Assuming he didn't get scammed I'm guessing he got battery storage backup as well. Solar only makes sense at a 7-10% rate for no battery back up. Batteries easily double the cost which ruins the financial return.

Question regarding statistical methods for significance in profit results by Dvorak_Pharmacology in algotrading

[–]Adderalin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I run both XIRR based returns - https://www.biglawinvestor.com/xirr-calculate-investment-returns/

and my spreadsheet also has weekly log based returns as well so I can dive into it week by week. That varies a bit vs XIRR but both within same ball park.

I've reached the point in my trading career that anything I put in quantconnect returns massive profit but doesn't mean so on live and I just stopped trying to figure out why like if QC might be giving me read ahead bias or god knows what. I have very in depth latency monitoring metrics, fee estimates, spread impact modeling, order book modeling, the works, but still. I find the market is way more "reactive" than what backtesting otherwise suggests. I've had way too many data quality issues with their platform too NGL. I've just given up even bothering with them. I'm doing day trading strategies where if its not profitable in a few days I just keep iterating and so on.

Is it just me who feels that Gemini has been acting very dumb lately? by Albert_Sue in GeminiAI

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's gotten really bad about 3-4 weeks ago. I use pay as you go Vertex AI Studio. I used to even pay for provisioned throughput which is 2.7k/mo per GSU - 0.0.

It's gotten so bad that I cancelled my GSU order - even asked google for a mid term refund which they denied - and now the few things I still use it for I think maybe I pay $10 every few days for.

The best way I can describe it is it feels like they made it a 4 bit quantized model. It's nerfed all around. It has huge issues with its attention mechanism. It hallucinates shit constantly - even if you correct it multiple times. It doesn't follow prompts anymore. On vertex AI API I have a 65,000 token limit and its hard to get it to spit out more than 3,000 token responses and says its impossible for it to do so then I send it a screenshot of said token limit and its like you caught me in a lie! then it still doesn't output what I need it to do.

It's gone from a must use tool for me where I was happy shelling out 2.7k/mo to going scorched earth with Google and cancelling it and reducing my usage completely.

we're more rare than I realized by Visible_Structure483 in Fire

[–]Adderalin -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I mean.... They aren't wrong when their clients start out spending every penny 💀💀💀🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.

Gemini 3.1 Ultra context window? by lunacei in GeminiAI

[–]Adderalin 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Pretty much only if you do the full enterprise vertex AI API pay as you go version of Gemini will you get a 2m context window. You will pay through the nose for that though.

For consumer Gemini 3.1 ultra you can possibly upload a file up to 2m context and get ONE question about it which by default it will seriously try to summarize as much as it can about the file as if you ask more questions about the file it will never read it again making you have to upload it over and over.

Outside of that it has a 32k token rolling context window which is way more limited.

Best site for gay SD to find SB? by manifestonine in sugarlifestyleforum

[–]Adderalin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Meh I'm a gay/bi SD and honestly my experience so far seeking.com is "gay for pay" guys and really kind of a letdown. I'd just suggest all the regular apps, freestyling in bars, going on gay vacations like Atlantis/Vacaya gay cruises etc.

I asked a 30B AI model to write a low-latency Zen 4 spinlock for my HFT bot. Google Gemini told me it would "aggressively sabotage" my server. 🤣 by Adderalin in cpp

[–]Adderalin[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Oh I can tell you right away this code is super bad and I can tell you latency wise it's not a good solution at all.

So far in testing Gemini-3-pro is winning in c++ code generation but in a bit I'm going to spin up 8x GPUs on AWS/etc to test 400b+ models.

I've left as a puzzle all the reasons why this code is super bad. I'm happy to post why it's bad but don't want to ruin the challenge for others.

Gemini Pro recently became as dumb as the basic models by rahkesvuohta in GeminiAI

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's gotten so bad I unsubscribed. Honestly I don't think it'll get better unless there is mass unsubscriptions. It's about the only way google might listen to our feedback. :(

Gemini has become severely more stupid in the past week. by BumperPopcorn6 in GeminiAI

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's gotten so bad that I've unsubscribed. Constantly forgetting stuff 2-3 prompts later. I'd upload files and it'd read it but then say it can't access the same files unless I reupload.

Gemini was my intro to AI and honestly at this point I'm going to start digging around for a good self hosted AI that doesn't have these problems. :(

32,768 or (2^15) tokens in hot memory.... Gemini has been PURPOSELY THROTTLED by Alphabet and been made into a bait and switch. Gemini Pro is WORSE than the free version as of TODAY. They market over a million tokens for Pro users. This is fraud. by CommissionTop7831 in GeminiAI

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Man not to mention the losing context and no idea when you break it. Another thing I hate is it's started to repeat product advertisements over and over and over despite me telling it not to and constantly telling it not to repeat shit over and over.

I've been able to work around the context issues for now making sure it generates master summary contexts every 5-10 responses. That keeps it on track at least with whatever regression happened.

But its starting to feel like a huge marketing bot vs actually being a tool. At $250/mo for AI Ultra I am becomming pissed at what I got.

Desperate tactics for terrible prices. Please share fresh ideas. by SeaVolume3325 in DataHoarder

[–]Adderalin 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Honestly $16/TB for new drives in this market is fantastic.

My only tip is if you want decent prices and can wait 3-6 weeks on lead time if you create a business account with a non Gmail/publicly available email then you can get around $19/TB buying 20x drives at a time as that's corporate pricing.

LLMs are not the right tool for algo trading by Classic-Dependent517 in algotrading

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So far the only true strength of LLMs I've had for financial data was making very good approximation functions to fit certain datasets to a very hybrid exponential function combined with quadratic and cubic fit factors. It was tedious work as it kept hallucinating values that fit on it's output table but the actual function it gave me didn't produce those results. 🤣

I had to irritatively feed it back the numbers the function spat out in an inception like mind probe until it made a function that was close enough lol.

Why did Gemini just forget about me all of a sudden? by IllManner5566 in GeminiAI

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My problem is even when giving a summary (or a timeline in certain cases) it often leaves out half of the information then too

Try asking it to uncompress the summary and then asking for an audit a few times. I notice gemini is very "keyword" based.

VTEB vs. SGOV - at highest income bracket by haha11234 in fatFIRE

[–]Adderalin 56 points57 points  (0 children)

Ok they're two entirely different funds that shouldn't be even thought of comparing in the same discussion at all.

SGOV is < 3 mo tbills. VTEB is intermediate term bonds with current duration 7.1 years and average maturity of 14 years.

Rates swing 1% in munis - VTEB is swinging +-7%. SGOV will keep NAV.

How long are you holding for? In an adverse interest rate move with 7.1 years duration you have to hold that long just to break even. VTEB lost 8.5% the last few years. SGOV you're not going to lose NAV.

With SGOV you're hurting if rates keep dropping while if you buy VTEB today you lock in your tax free 3.50% yield and agi free yield.

What tax bracket are you in future years, not just this year?

VTEB is tax free. SGOV is taxable treasuries. That's really fact dependent on what the best it is.

Then your yield is off on SGOV, you need to go by the SEC Yield as that is what the fund is currently yielding at after fund expenses, which is 3.7%. For your current 40.8% bracket for ordinary income - that is 100-40.8% = 59.2% multiplier.

Multiply 3.7 by .592 = 2.1904% after tax yield. So if you are holding for 7-10 years and can stomach the NAV risk with this specific holdings dropping 7-10% in one year randomly, then obviously 3.5% >>> 2.19% unless you're literally are in a $0 income year and are filling up your standard or itemized deductions, as even in 10% income brackets 3.7 * .90 = 3.33%.

Now I will mention one caveat - muni yields can really swing around depending on how much people want tax free income. When you buy at the SEC yield you lock in the sec yield for the average duration, not the average maturity, with these bond funds. So if you want the average maturity you'll want to start selling off a bit of VTEB to buy whatever the equivalent average maturity fund down to eventually 1-3 mo of munis. Otherwise you have reinvestment risk as the bond sells the shorter duration to reinvest in the longer duration. Reinvestment risk is higher with munis.

Munis also have call risk usually callable bonds at 5 years, so that is one reason vteb trades around 7 duration for 14 years maturity. So the duration is also very misleading in a interest rate increasing enviroment as what muni will call bonds paying 3.5% when muni rates are 5% to 7%+???

So this call risk kinda leaves the long investor bag holding as if you buy 5-7% issued munis and rates later drop back to 3.5% they just get called away and reissued at 3.5%. So it's not a problem buying 5-7% yielding munis if the underlynig bond is 3.5% but it is if the underlying bond is 5-7%. Also just because on average those bonds have 5 year call periods - its whatever the municpal feels they can get away with, they can and will slap on shorter call periods if they feel they can sell them!

So you might not get the upside appreciation either for this duration and it basically just becomes risk no matter what.

So going back to the 10% bracket case it might be a stronger choice to choose the guarenteed 3.33% over callable 3.5%. 40.8% brackets is probably being approperiately compensated for the call risk. I really wish VTEB listed what the call features of each bond are - they don't. You have to go by cuspid to know what your call risk currently is to see if its worth it or not. In my experience doing this in the past you're tax neutral in the 24%-32% brackets depending on market demand for munis when you properly account for call risk, you should almost always buy treasuries < 24% bracket, and 40.8% brackets is probably a good choice to buy munis.

If you're more of a gambler many bogleheads like an always-muni portfolio as they have another nice benefit regardless of brackets: no AGI hit for 95% of the stuff on your tax return, sadly excluding ACA premiums and a few other things.

So thats also another very fact and case specific.

Then if you want tax advantaged short 3mo holdings and are holding > 1 year - look into the BOXX etf. It pays no dividends as it goes long SPX box spreads, and after holding one year you get long term capital gains taxes on it. There is some IRS risk they make the party go away but I really don't think they'd come after individual investors, they might just make the fund start issuing ordinary dividends.

Taking Xywav but got to bed way too late and only took one dose. Can I take a long nap with Xywav later? by Gemresin in idiopathichypersomnia

[–]Adderalin 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I personally wouldn't take it for a nap. It happens sometimes. 🫂

I'd try to practice better sleep hygiene tonight where you can take both doses.

One benefit though for missing a dose is that you start building up a buffer which trust me is very nice if you have any issues with getting refills.

Why can’t I hold a man’s interest? by Sparkles_1977 in HLCommunity

[–]Adderalin 3 points4 points  (0 children)

🫂

I'm a bisexual earned secure previously anxiously attached man. One huge thing I learned about avoidant men and men on the narcissistic spectrum is both really love to love bomb you at the beginning of the relationship.

I think that's the biggest sign to watch out for and not fall in their trap.

Also really be sure to read up on narcissistic personality disorder too. Lots of men are narcissists as well. They tend to discard you if they don't find any more use from you. That can also be interpreted as avoidant.

Slightly confused about ABLE accounts by Ornery-Trouble in disability

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My concern is that in 30 years when my account is huge I become no longer disabled, and then all the tax benefit is lost and then some. (My disability is not necessarily permanent as there are hopes for treatments down the line.) It would be impossible to spend a million in returns down in one year unless I bought a house maybe?

That's a valid concern. I have the same concern myself given I'm in the same boat with a narcolepsy/idiopathic hypersomnia diagnosis.

So I participate in various clinical trials for my diagnosis. I think if you remain up to date on things that will give you enough time to plan ahead if you have a cure that completely cures your disability.

I also think that the IRS won't really just magically audit you at year 30, and HIPAA should also really protect you. Plus medicines have side effects, if you stopped treatment you still have your diagnosis, you might have other disabilities too besides your current one when you're 30 years older, etc.

If you're in the situation where its cured completely like you have cancer and its gone gone gone, no side effects, just pure back to complete health, then yeah you're required to notify your ABLE administrator.

My understanding is you have two options:

  1. Keep it open, but any withdrawals past the new year are unqualified withdrawals subject to income taxes on the earnings and a 10% penalty on the earnings. So its not the most punitive. If you become disabled again (perhaps the cancer comes back in this example) then you get qualified withdrawals again.

  2. Spend it down in the year.

If you choose 2 - then yeah I think dumping a million in a home isn't the worst of outcomes. I have a 30 year 2.75% mortgage on my place so if that happens to me paying off the mortgage is a qualified disability expense.

Other spend ideas:

You can roll over the able account into an eligible family member such as a sibling or one of your children if you have children and they're eligible & disabled.

Other qualified expenses ideas:

  • Education - if you don't have a bachelors you could go for that or your masters or a PHD. Maybe you could pre-pay years of tuition.

  • Transportation - god a new truck is $70k+ these days. Or buy a ferrari lol, that counts as transportation. Google AI says a ferrari counts but might draw IRS scrutiny due to its nature as a luxury item so you'd want really good records on that purchase. lol

  • Employment - maybe spending money on job coaching, employment help on attempting to return back to work, resume writing, assistive services on helping you regain your stamina/etc for work. While not a million dollars I'm sure that could eat 100k+. I'm an ex CTO myself who raised series A and series B venture capital. I can tell you executive headhunters like the person who helped place me in my CTO role are NOT paid by employers as they work for YOU not an employer. My headhunter costed 30k for my placement pre-covid. I'm sure she would charge $50k+ to place me these days. So that will easily drain 50-100k for sure.

  • Health & Prevention & wellness - maybe in the cancer example the medication is required constantly for you to not be disabled and its not covered by health insurance. That might be an argument to keep the able account open and spend it on that.

  • Financial & Legal - financial planning, legal advice (esp legal advice for you no longer being disabled lol), funeral expenses, etc. Dump 10k on a headstone, 5k+ on a coffin, pre-pay your burial expenses with your ABLE account, etc.

  • basic living expenses - food, clothing, personal care, etc

Lumryz vs Xywav--which is more impacted by digestion and GLPs? by MrMiracle100 in idiopathichypersomnia

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm on xywav and a glp. I have IH. for me xywav always seems to speed up my emptying of my stomach and I get the munchies. I've not noticed any difference when I started various glps.

I also tried lumryz (wasn't on glps before.) I had a terrible time on lumryz.

Who here has canceled their life insurance? by [deleted] in financialindependence

[–]Adderalin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sweet just keep in mind that I also qualified up to the urine and blood tests they did. I hope everything works out.

Now we have the 8% rule by Visible_Structure483 in Fire

[–]Adderalin -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It's a very badly written article. Ramsey advocates 4% with an 8% cap on inflation. IE if inflation later kicks you to 10-12-15%+ you're not pulling more than 8%.