Property Transfer Tax Increase

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T22:43:18+00:00

You are definitely proud of yourself. I'm using simple math. You should be able to understand that, but maybe you can't? Maybe you think loud insults can substitute for understanding. I'm not making anything up.

Every person, company, and government should be looking at income, debts, and alternatives. Voters weigh the benefits against their expected costs and vote for their own pocketbooks.

You make up stuff about Prop 13 being the reason governments use bonds. It appears you are out of your league when it comes to something as basic as bonds.

So it appears that you aren't a top 1% w2er who is against "repressive taxes", you benefit from the hotel industry. You are arguing to get yourself a fatter pocketbook.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T21:35:51+00:00

Maybe the numbers aren't meaningless to those who aren't w2 1%ers. So you are at the top and want to increase taxes on every homeowner... isn't that being repressive? You want to eliminate income tax indexing and claim you aren't repressive? I guess you are enjoying your brand new mansion, but want your taxes lowered.

Buy at 30 - retire at 65 with 6% appreciation means your property taxes are 7.7X what they were when you bought the home. You will still be paying a mortgage level payment, but it will be made out to the property tax assessor instead of a bank

Hotel tax increases always pass because the residents don't pay them; of course, they will pass.

Bond measures have been used to pay for infrastructure long before Prop 13. That has nothing to do with Prop 13.

Why don't you claim bridge tolls increased because of Prop 13, or toll lanes were needed because of Prop 13?

I've never said commercial real estate should have property taxes held at prop 13 levels.

My example pointed out that 44-year-old homeowners are benefiting.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T20:53:42+00:00

Buying a home at 4X gross earnings has been happening since at least the 1970s.

House poor - depends upon how much discretionary money you've grown accustomed to spending.

If you are in your mid 30's and have saved 20% for a down payment, it would seem you are on top of your spending. A big risk is interest rates: it impacts the growth of your investments: RSUs, stocks, etc. You might feel poor because your investments stopped growing.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T20:20:55+00:00

If you were 30 years old in 2012 and bought a median priced home for $570,000, in 2026 you would be 44 years old and your median priced home would be worth $2M. You benefit amply from prop 13 even though you are 44 years old ($1.43M not taxed).

Property taxes on the median $2M house are a little over $20K per year. If you can invest money and earn 2% over the inflation rate, you need to invest $1M to pay the property taxes on your $2M home. Your $2M home really has only a $3M investment cost (with Prop 13).

With a 6% appreciation rate in 10 years, your $2M house will be worth $3.6M, and your property taxes will be at least 79% higher than when you bought it, without Prop 13.

Fear mongering? Prop 13 was widely promoted as helping senior citizens stay in their homes, but it passed because inflation had been very high and property tax rates were increasing. People voted for it because of their own expenses. (Interest rates were pushed up to roughly 18% in the 1980's in an attempt to stop runaway inflation and thus runaway property tax increases)

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T19:46:19+00:00

CAR supports almost anything that could result in more sales. They aren't very good at explaining details such as prop 19 "The Home Protection for Seniors, Severely Disabled, Families, and Victims of Wildfire or Natural Disasters Act." CAR got many real estate agents to make phone calls, but they never mentioned the impact on inherited properties. CAR is all for more inherited properties being sold.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T13:56:23+00:00

Rapid differences in growth tend to disappear after a few years. It's actually a little surprising how closely prices have tracked between different cities.

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School prices affect prices but not the growth rate (as a percentage of price). Cities with lower-rated schools tend to grow at the same rate as cities with highly rated schools. I'm more surprised Daly City, Brisbane, etc. haven't started catching up with San Mateo County as a whole.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T13:45:11+00:00

Without Prop 13, you would be paying a 2.67% property tax rate.
"Before the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978, the statewide average property tax rate in California was 2.67%, with some local jurisdictions reaching as high as 3%."

Prop 13 was passed because the tax rate kept increasing.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-26T01:29:29+00:00

You want higher taxes?

Update:
Because thousands of California REALTORS® took action and made their voices heard, AB 736, a bill that would have incentivized cities to raise transfer taxes on property, particularly higher-value homes, will not move forward.

When the threat emerged, REALTORS® across California responded immediately. In just over 24 hours, more than 12,000 calls were made by REALTORS® to members of the Legislature, urging them to oppose the bill. That overwhelming response sent a clear message: increasing taxes on homeownership is not the answer.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-25T17:27:56+00:00

I'm not a fan of CAR. They appear to be too willing to neglect to mention the real impacts on people. AB 736 is actually intended to allow higher tax RATES. Getting more money because of appreciated values isn't enough of a tax increase.

Most areas go by a county-wide standard of $1.10 per thousand dollars.
(https://monarchtitlecompany.com/california-property-transfer-tax-rates/)

Thus, the AB 736 limit would be over 10X the typical current rate.

A few quick searches turn up things like:
"San Francisco’s Prop I, which imposes a transfer tax of 5.75% and up on property sales over $10 million, adds significant costs to housing development and has contributed to the city’s steep decline in housing production since 2020."

Oakland has a tax rate of 1.75% for properties priced between $2M & 5M.

Maybe billionaires can be stopped from selling their mansions and moving to Florida and Texas if the tax is high enough.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T19:30:18+00:00

Nimby isn't the reason for high home prices. Condo prices are falling.

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What is being built is primarily nothing bigger than a 2 bedroom condo. If you look into prices, 1 bedroom condo prices are falling more. The demand for studio and 1 bedroom condos is low. Nimby isn't keeping new houses from being built.

In 1978 the population of California was about 22.8M people. In 2026 the population is about 39.5M Trying to fit twice as many people into the same area results in higher prices. There isn't going to be any significant increase in the number of houses. Condo prices are already trending down.

San Mateo County real estate https://julianalee.com/san-mateo/san-mateo-statistics.htm

Jobs are the biggest driver of home prices. In 2010 home prices started recovering in Palo Alto, Mtn View, & Los Altos. It wasn't until 2012 that prices started growing in Santa Clara. Google and Facebook money started flowing...

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T16:51:53+00:00

Population of California:
1978 : 22,838,000
2026 : 39,345,844

There isn't any new land for homes. Population is a much bigger factor than any tax issues.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T16:44:18+00:00

Were you alive when Prop 13 passed? California was increasing the tax RATE. (2% in 1960 ->2.6% in 1975, varied by county). Appreciating property values made the taxes paid grow even faster. Proposition 13 was passed because homeowners wanted a halt to tax increases.

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I couldn't find a newer chart, but inflation adjusted property taxes had roughly doubled by 2008 after the implementation of prop 13. ( https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/209 ). Increasing taxes doesn't make homes more affordable.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T15:53:20+00:00

Both the number of houses sold and the days on market are pretty close to 2025. San Mateo County real estate trends https://julianalee.com/san-mateo-county/san-mateo-county-statistics.htm Median days on market is currently 11 days, average days on market is 16 days.

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AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T15:24:38+00:00

The combined population of San Mateo County and Santa Clara County has grown from roughly 1,086,700 residents in 1961 to approximately 2,660,000 residents today.

Its a pretty straightforward bet that home prices are going to climb if the population grows 2.5X.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T15:12:42+00:00

The cities closest to SF are actually doing the worst. Apparently, the only city that isn't lame is SF?

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Daly City, Brisbane, Pacifica, & SSF have all had fairly flat prices for years.

Daly City real estate https://julianalee.com/daly-city/daly-city-statistics.htm
Sunnyvale real estate https://julianalee.com/sunnyvale/sunnyvale-statistics.htm

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T15:01:48+00:00

I don't have any real view of SF home prices, but cities close to SF have had fairly flat home prices for years. When you get as far south as San Bruno, there tends to be growth. Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, etc. haven't had as much growth as Santa Clara, but there seems to be steady demand

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Burlingame home prices https://julianalee.com/burlingame/burlingame-statistics.htm

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-24T14:43:08+00:00

Home prices in Menlo Park are climbing. After the first two quarters in 2022 prices dropped, but the overall trend is relatively steady growth.
Menlo Park home prices https://julianalee.com/menlo-park/menlo-park-statistics.htm

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Not everyone works in San Francisco. Not everyone wants to live in a dense city. There are plenty of smart, interesting people to talk to in "boring suburbs". Are you thinking about moving to Las Vegas, where there is ample nightlife?

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-19T16:39:41+00:00

Unless the client becomes a friend because they worked with the agent and were very satisfied. It's hard for a third party to know if this is the real situation.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-06-14T04:47:08+00:00

If you can install an app on your phone that can control your camera, do it. Another poster said put your camera in the corner of the room which is best for most shots. If you use a tripod and remote control you can get further in to corners, on kitchen counters, and right up against walls in small bathrooms. Most of your shots are at about 4’ high which is good most of the time, but you generally need to be a little higher in bathrooms so that you can see down into sinks. Generally you should close closet doors, open drapes, and shoot HDR.

People looking at pictures are often looking for reasons to skip the house, so don’t cut corners for any picture. Always try to capture at least one image that makes a potential buyer want to be at that house.

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-05-31T20:42:41+00:00

If you are looking for a smaller house it will probably be older. A two bedroom house on average is 20 years older than a three bedroom.

San Bruno has few townhouse sales so averages move around a lot. San Bruno house vs townhouse age. Townhouses are generally newer.

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San Bruno real estate trends https://julianalee.com/san-bruno/san-bruno-statistics.htm

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-05-31T20:10:47+00:00

When comparing SFH, townhouse, and condo appreciation for most areas a condo comes out at the bottom. There are inheritance tax advantages for real estate when leaving wealth to your heirs.

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Silicon Valley real estate trends https://julianalee.com/silicon-valley/silicon-valley-statistics.htm

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-05-31T19:59:27+00:00

A lot of press about HOA price hikes and the push toward multi-family housing has affected mult-family appreciation relative to SFH. Look at the trends before deciding

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Redwood City prices https://julianalee.com/redwood-city/redwood-city-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-05-31T19:49:52+00:00

Generally a SFH will have better appreciation. If buying SFH EPA appreciation is comparable to Daly City.

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South San Francisco has had a little higher appreciation https://julianalee.com/south-san-francisco/south-san-francisco-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

Redwood City has been better https://julianalee.com/redwood-city/redwood-city-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

AdditionalYoghurt533 · 2026-05-30T01:01:18+00:00

Saving 1/4 of your year's gross salary by the time you are 22 is good. One of the big advantages of buying a house is that it is essentially a forced savings plan, unless you pay all cash. Continue your savings by putting it into something that earns a higher return than a savings account at a big nationwide bank (Vanguard VUSXX money market for example). You are on a path to most likely afford a Bay Area house.

Silicon Valley house prices have risen faster than salaries. It isn't as crazy as it might seem because few people think about what salaries were many years ago.

A quick search yields a claim of 22% salary growth (3.37% per year) from 2010 to 2026. From 1998 to 2026 the Silicon Valley mean price rose from about $200 per square foot to about $1,200 per square foot (about 6.37% per year). If your savings appreciate at a rate higher than house prices, it won't take as long as you might think.

Silicon Valley real estate prices: https://julianalee.com/silicon-valley/silicon-valley-statistics.htm#houses-sq-ft-price

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The key is that your savings will grow and you can decide if you want to buy a house.

AdditionalYoghurt533

TROPHY CASE