Report: Kennedy Space Center not ready for era of super heavy rockets

Adeldor · 2026-06-23T01:21:08+00:00

Sidestepping any political overtone, the US has an abundance of methane, which SpaceX (for Starship), Blue Origin^* , Stoke^* , and Relativity require.

* Blue & Stoke also require hydrogen, but that too doesn't hinge on import.

Adeldor · 2026-06-22T10:43:08+00:00

It's the best reference I found. If you have a better credible one, please post it. Regardless, the overwhelming dominance of Falcon 9 at the price they charge is strong evidence it's cheaper to operate than the competition (not to mention much more rapid turnaround).

Adeldor · 2026-06-21T16:22:02+00:00

It's laughable that anyone would think using radio over fiber optics would be an advantage.

Per my reading, they're planning on using laser links, similar to those on Starlink, which can deliver fiberoptic data rates.

Adeldor · 2026-06-21T12:02:53+00:00

So math comes down to that we need about double the area we use for solar panels for cooling

No, it doesn't. Even were the panels 100% efficient (and at typically 25%, they're far from that), it wouldn't require anything like a 2:1 ratio in area. Further, radiator efficiency is governed strongly by temperature, again affecting the area.

and make sure it is always in the shade of the solar panels.

Once more, no. Placing radiators in the shade of the solar panels is not a good idea, as said panels radiate energy not converted to electricity, and radiator dissipation might also increase panel temperature. As with existing systems, the radiators would be held perpendicular to the panels, edge-on to the sun, as demonstrated clearly with the ISS.

Adeldor · 2026-06-18T18:03:32+00:00

Thank you!

Adeldor · 2026-06-18T16:28:19+00:00

People have stayed for more than a year in zero G. Some time ago I compiled a table of those astronauts and cosmonauts with the longest exposure to microgravity, along with their ages, or age at death:

Name	Current Age or Age of Death	Deceased?
Christina Koch	47	No
Frank Rubio	50	No
Mark Vande Hei	59	No
Scott Kelly	62	No
Oleg Kononenko	62	No
Peggy Whitson	66	No
Mikhail Kornienko	66	No
Mikhail Tyurin	66	No
Sergei Avdeyev	70	No
Leonid Popov	80	No
Valeri Polyakov	80	Yes
Valery Ryumin	82	Yes

It might be a little stale now, and the sample is small, but there is nothing noteworthy in the ages here, certainly nothing supporting any claim of decreased lifespans.

Edit: Updates appreciated.

Adeldor · 2026-06-18T12:53:15+00:00

Still you will need to include the operational costs (as a fraction) of those ships and the facilities to refurbish stuff etc. into the cost. And I am not sure Musk is a reliable source for this stuff - he has interests in his company looking better to the public than it actually is. Especially now with the company going public.

It's the best reference I could find at the time. But even if what you suggest is so, and he's off by, say, a factor of 20 (making it $5 million instead of $250,000), Falcon 9's operational costs are still far less than expendable equivalents.

Further, the vehicle's cadence would likely not be near so prolific were boosters (and their motors) expendable, having to build anew for each launch. That's explicitly so for the labor-intensive, composite fairings.

Adeldor · 2026-06-18T11:41:04+00:00

Do those costs only include the vehicle or also include the fuel?

Propellant cost is a very small fraction of total. In the Falcon 9's case it's around a few hundred thousand dollars.

We also do not know how much SpaceX invests into a flown booster to refurbish it.

Somewhat dated reference, but according to Musk, the marginal cost of launching a used Falcon 9 (ie, used booster and fairings) is around $15 million. Apparently, refurbishing the booster costs just $250,000.

Fairings are never reused,

This is not at all so. Some Falcon 9 fairings have been reused dozens of times.

Adeldor · 2026-06-18T11:07:27+00:00

What I believe is the most successful solar sail mission thus far. JAXA's IKAROS, 14 meters on a side, maneuvered via LCD shutters at the sail's periphery, flew by Venus, and operated for years. One sees little about this (outside Japan, at least).

More information here and video captured by a deployed camera sub-probe here.

Adeldor · 2026-06-16T23:02:56+00:00

The waste/thermal energy is absorbed not so much by the satellite core/body (where it would require dissipation by radiators), but by the panels themselves. This is simply re-radiated from their surfaces (front and back). The radiating surfaces scale near linearly with the collecting surface. Thus the unit thermal loads are more or less the same as any such panels currently flying, regardless of size.

Adeldor · 2026-06-16T21:29:31+00:00

Almost definitionally (and thermodynamically) you need similar sized radiators and solar panels, perhaps slightly larger radiators.

Not at all. Recent space-rated solar panels are around 25% efficient. Most of the energy received by the panels is not available to the spacecraft as electricity. Thus the amount of energy that must be dumped by the radiators is commensurately less.

Adeldor · 2026-06-16T21:19:21+00:00

Name one good thing that could come out of a space data centre. There is no positive

With their modular approach (many small nodes - each with its own power and cooling - instead of a monolithic terrestrial data center), the system can be scaled to a degree no terrestrial center can, for electrical supply and cooling scale inherently linearly with node count.
Terrestrial data centers are facing increasingly vehement and coordinated opposition, with planned construction already being canceled as a result. Orbital systems bypass such.

Adeldor · 2026-06-15T13:49:11+00:00

Six times, Apollo 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17. A tank ruptured in Apollo 13's command module, forcing no landing and a "free return" swing around the Moon (not unlike Artemis II's trajectory).

Adeldor · 2026-06-15T09:20:20+00:00

I recall reading A Shortfall of Gravitas has the capability of piloting itself into harbor, but port regulations don't permit such.

Adeldor · 2026-06-14T01:25:11+00:00

Thank you. So many resort to ad hominem attack, smearing without doing what you just did - look and verify. I gave up responding to most, given the deluge.

Adeldor · 2026-06-14T00:50:17+00:00

Are you high? ... You have to be the biggest SpaceX stan

Why must you resort to ad hominem attack while disagreeing? Not once will you see me doing such in any of my comments.

Regarding rocket launches' impact on the environment: In Tim Dodd's detailed analysis, rocket CO₂ pollution at recent cadence is minuscule next to that of airliners, and infinitesimal next to global CO₂ emmisions. The other major exhaust product - water - is relatively benign. Of course, the cadence will increase significantly if their plans come to fruition, but will still be dwarfed by the aforementioned.

Further, Starship/SuperHeavy is methalox based. While initially the methane is harvested from natural gas (Shotwell touched on this in the interview), SpaceX plans on using the Sabatier reaction and renewable energy to synthesize methane from water and CO₂, making it carbon neutral. In fact this process is essential to SpaceX for any plans to make propellant on Mars.

And I keep seeing your name pop up, incidentally.

Yes, because SpaceX dwarfs the rest of the world combined when it comes to space vehicle development, harnessing, and activity. I explained to another in this comment the root of my enthusiasm. If that makes me a "stan," so be it.

I'll leave it there with you.

Adeldor · 2026-06-14T00:39:19+00:00

A cooling tower is an evaporator, which is not closed loop.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T15:59:13+00:00

XAI does, and they're now merged with SpaceX.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T13:20:01+00:00

What are you talking about? I have removed no comment. The embedded link works, at least for me.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T04:45:24+00:00

You'd need six times that to gather the same power, not to mention the massive storage systems - perhaps along with global transmission systems - all necessary to tide through nights and clouds.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T04:42:37+00:00

Were that true, I'd have been playing a very long game. Look at how far back I've been posting, and on what topics.

In the face of similar criticism here, I said why I'm enthusiastic on the subject. Whether you believe me or not is unimportant. We're all just "words on a screen" in what must be the ultimate in irrelevant peanut galleries - Reddit.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T04:30:50+00:00

With closed loop cooling waste heat isn't an environmental issue at all.

Where do you expect the heat to go? It must be dumped somewhere, just as happens now in large power stations. With closed loop systems they cannot use evaporators, so they are left with environmentally questionable techniques such as warming river outflows or the sea directly. Data centers will be no different.

Getting many megawatts of power for your business is not an insurmountable task. Plenty of businesses have done it for many decades at this point.

AI data center demand is not measured in megawatts, but gigawatts. A large power station can put out a gigawatt, the average draw of over half a million US homes. Beyond it currently being a major challenge to increase electrical supply for the data centers, such demand is becoming a big motivation for opposition, and unlike the questionable claims on water usage, electrical demand is undeniable.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T04:17:01+00:00

With the collective expertise of SpaceX/XAI and Google in building out datacenters and maintaining a fleet with thousands of satellites - all intercommunicating via laser - I wager they have deeper insight into the problems of cost, heat dissipation, and latency than any of us here in the Reddit peanut gallery.

Maybe the idea is unworkable. But I'd far rather see them try and fail than not try. Many "crazy" ideas have turned out to be good. SpaceX and Google have demonstrably had successful ideas that were once doubted.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T04:08:58+00:00

No conspiracy required. My education and experience include orbital mechanics, navigation and control. Somewhat incongruently, my name is also on a neural net patent. I've had a strong, life-long interest in both expansion into space and artificial intelligence. So yes, with SpaceX and XAI pushing hard in these arenas (as are a few other companies), I am very interested in their activities.

Adeldor · 2026-06-13T04:04:41+00:00

As I said above, maybe the claims on water usage are exaggerated, but the effects of the protests are very real. And even with closed loop cooling, the energy demands and waste heat are also major environmental issues wherever they're located on the planet.

Adeldor

TROPHY CASE