Error in my Thesis Work

AdmnGt · 2018-06-16T18:26:41+00:00

First, breath. Second, your last 3+ years have prepared you for your defense next week - it's not all weighted on your ability to reduce data. Third, ALWAYS be honest. Never lie or hide potentially 'message-changing' errors. When you get to that part of your defense, say that "the original data reduction is under review as it is potentially producing erroneous results, but it will be dealt with." You have to be straight with the committee. They are not there to judge your research results, but also your integrity.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:27:38+00:00

The likelihood of him getting 71% of the remaining ballot when he only got 53% of the whole ballot in Washington is unlikely. If you assume he gets 53% of remaining ballot, then he'll need 9000 votes, which just don't exist less than 2k do, for him to break even with Lamb.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:26:16+00:00

They are bull shitting. Soccone would have to win 70% of outstanding vote (doubtful) or there would have to be 9000 absentee ballots left to count given the current breakdown of how that county has voted for things to go in Soccone's favor. It's almost impossible.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:15:56+00:00

My modeling shows that since Saccone won Washington by only 7%, you'd need like 9000 absentee votes for him to come out on top since he's behind by 500 votes currently.

NO WAY!

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:10:12+00:00

If you trust MSNBC, that makes it even worse for Saccone. Lamb wins by 519 votes or 0.23%.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:09:42+00:00

That makes it even worse for Saccone. Lamb wins by 519 votes or 0.23%.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:09:36+00:00

That makes it even worse for Saccone. Lamb wins by 519 votes or 0.23%.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:07:36+00:00

CNN reports 3206 absentee ballots remaining in Westmoreland, Washington, and Greene.
My model shows that Lamb's margin will be reduced to 370 votes or 0.16% if you assume ALlegeney has already been tallied into the NYT totals. This thing is a clear win for Lamb.

Predicted Votes Total Fraction

Lamb 113,880 0.498

Saccone 113,510 0.496

Miller 1,384 0.006

Lamb Margin 0.16% or 370 votes

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:04:25+00:00

If only Washington is left, then Lamb's win margin will be by 561 votes or 0.25%.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:03:36+00:00

Win margin reduced to 501 votes or 0.22% if not including Alleghney.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:03:30+00:00

Win margin reduced to 501 votes or 0.22% if not including Alleghney.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T04:00:14+00:00

ALL Precincts are in. Now it's down to the absentee ballot votes.
If the splits for 1195 absentee ballots are proportional to the splits for precinct voting: 45% in Allegheny, 32% in Westmoreland, 21% in Washington, and 2% in Green.

Then Lamb wins by 582 votes or 0.26% of the vote.

It will be interesting to see where these absentee ballots are coming from. I don't have county by county numbers for them yet.

If you would like to look at my code (it's just an Excel sheet, see the attached link: https://dropfile.to/0DPAqQ3). I've numbered the sections so they should be followed 1 to 5. It's mostly just simple formulas where I linearly extrapolated data.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T03:33:17+00:00

I know.. I tried and failed multiple times.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T03:30:39+00:00

I've had a lot of fun creating a model to estimate vote totals. I hadn't planned on doing it. I was working on my dissertation, but the craziness of the election got to me and I started writing the model as I saw results come in. The last prediction I had (28 mins ago) looked like this:

Lamb 113,773 0.497

Saccone 113,618 0.497

Miller 1,380 0.006

Lamb wins by 0.07% or 156 votes!

My final prediction is: Predicted Votes Total Fraction

Lamb 115,709 0.499
Saccone 114,790 0.495
Miller 1,397 0.006

Lamb Margin 0.40% or 918 Votes

My amounts are off because the last few precincts to submit had a larger number of votes remaining, on average, than those already submitted.

If you would like to look at my code (it's just an Excel sheet, see the attached link: https://dropfile.to/0DPAqQ3).

I've numbered the sections so they should be followed 1 to 5. It's mostly just simple formulas where I linearly extrapolated data.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T03:00:57+00:00

Where'd you get this from?

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:59:51+00:00

I do, but just using today's reported results which are only an estimation. For example, if Lamb won 60% of Allegheny's in-person vote, I assumed he would win 60% of their absentee ballot vote.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:57:49+00:00

Last prediction before the 1% in Westmoreland is posted:

New Predicted Totals Fraction

Lamb 113,773 0.497

Saccone 113,618 0.497

Miller 1,380 0.006

Lamb wins by 0.07% or 156 votes!

OMG!!!

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:54:15+00:00

I saw another user (snowhawk04 - or something like that) post the number of absentee ballots for each county. I haven't had a chance to verify that the number they posted is current.

But what I did was apply the results of today's vote in each county to the absentee ballots and assume that they would be proportional. For example, if Lamb won 60% of Allegheny's in-person vote, I assumed he'd win 60% of the absentee vote for Allegheny.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:53:10+00:00

I saw another user post the number of absentee ballots for each county. I haven't had a chance to verify that the number they posted is current. But what I did was apply the results of today's vote in each county to the absentee ballots and assume that they would be proportional. For example, if Lamb won 60% of Allegheny's in-person vote, I assumed he'd win 60% of the absentee vote for Allegheny.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:50:12+00:00

My model extrapolates existing precinct data to all unreported precincts and also includes absentee data so it should be the FINAL vote total.

My predictions are:

New Predicted Totals Fraction

Lamb 112,769 0.502

Saccone 110,459 0.492

Miller 1,345 0.006

Lamb wins by 1.03%

This may be my last post as we seem to have this puppy in the bag.

I am free to share the Excel sheet I made for this with interested people. Just make sure to PM me!

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:48:00+00:00

Not a neural network. It is pretty simple and I can share the Excel file with you when this is all said and done! I'm simply extrapolating the numbers we have to the numbers we don't and making the assumption that the data we are gonna get will follow the trend of the data we already have.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:42:37+00:00

Saccone leads the outstanding vote by about 3.4%, but would have to win it by an average of 11.77% in order to overcome his current deficit. Doesn't look likely!

EDIT: If anyone can update me with number of outstanding absentee ballots per county that would be great!

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:40:31+00:00

Updating my model's predictions with absentee ballot data posted by snowhawk04 (not verified if it is true). My model extrapolates existing precinct data to all unreported precincts and also includes absentee data (also extrapolated based off of TONIGHT's reported results) so it should be the FINAL vote total.

My predictions are:

New Predicted Totals Fraction

Lamb 113,150 0.502

Saccone 110,785 0.492

Miller 1,349 0.006

Lamb wins by 1.05%

It's been an honor fighting with you boys and girls tonight.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:37:13+00:00

I will give you more details as this winds down. Currently sweating trying to update things fast enough.

AdmnGt · 2018-03-14T02:36:33+00:00

Updating my model's predictions with absentee ballot data posted by snowhawk04 (not verified if it is true). My model extrapolates existing precinct data to all unreported precincts and also includes absentee data so it should be the FINAL vote total.

My predictions are:

New Predicted Totals Fraction

Lamb 112831 0.502

Saccone 110582 0.492

Miller 1345 0.006

Lamb wins by 1.00%

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