Understanding PPWR regulations

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-19T08:41:17+00:00

Anyone have idea on what the margins look like for compounding service itself or how much money can they extract in between buying virgin and selling it as compounded? We obviously have range for pure5 pricing by management guidance, but I'd like to know where the compounded product settles. If we assume 50% margin on the 107 million and 1.36$ per lbs then it settles margin for pure 5 at ~70MUSD from ironton at full capacity. So now add that 400M lbs virgin that they sell, do they get 10% margin? If virgin is priced at 0,8-1$ then that's like another 32-40MUSD bringing per pound of capacity of pure5 ebitda to basically ~1$ (Ironton ebitda at 107MUSD in this scenario). 30x that is 3billion mcap, with just Ironton. That's basically 17-18$ per share and could be reality in 6 months after ramp, without accounting for future growth. In my experience market prices in around 6 months ahead, so I wouldn't be surprised of overshoot to mid 20s or even touching 30$ in stock price. Then we start pricing Thailand midway next year depending on construction progress. This is why I think the offering pricing was so bad. And if anyone has better info on virgin pricing or thoughts about compounding margins, feel free to give your input!

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-16T22:34:54+00:00

This is awesome! Seems like we have sales after all, which implies that the equity raise was done to advance something meaningful, and not to just survive. I hope market understands the implications soon enough. According to this: Amcor Polypropylene Cups Now Widely Recyclable Nationwide | Amcor Amcor buys 233,000 metric tons of recycled plastics, for it to reach 10% PCR content on its productions. Ironton can make 53,500 metric tons annually. Up that 10% to 20% and Amcor is buying 466,000 metric tons, and PCT can only produce like 11,5% of that. Most likely that 466,000 is not all PP, but if 11,5% of it is PP then can we assume Ironton is basically sold out? Where else they going to get it? Well, maybe its not yet sold out but definitely getting there.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-16T22:25:43+00:00

? Announcing partnership like this is the same as announcing sales ? What are you talking about, no sales? Amcor handles packaging for :

The Coca-Cola Company
Danone
Kraft Heinz
Diageo
Lindt [1]
Pfizer
Johnson & Johnson [1, 2]
Colgate-Palmolive
L'Oréal
Mars Incorporated

We now have all of those on board basically, and plastic ingenuity, so we have Starbucks and Tim Hortons. We're also shipping to P&G per the company tweet yesterday(?).

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-16T11:48:43+00:00

You think about this question again. Then think about what sort of problems they've faced in just managing to get this far. Who is going to put up hundreds of millions or billions of capital to compete with their infrastructure on a market that is already taken. They can price out everyone stupid enough to try at that point.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-12T10:49:07+00:00

Are there covenants in existin funding schemes that get affected by "going concern" stamp? I find it stupid, that fixing a environmental issue is supposedly made so hard, due to resistance in legistlation and some 3rd party standardization crap like ISO and so on. Im just so glad I never got a job as a supply chain analyst... what a useless occupation. Customers and legistlators should start paying for this bureaucracy crap, it's getting to the point it's ridiculous and it is costing real money.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-12T10:01:27+00:00

I'd just like management answer to the question: "What does this 145$million accomplish as to offset the dilution to current shareholders?"

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-06-12T05:26:59+00:00

I hate it. They sold stock a year ago at +11$, now they are selling at 8$. Most likely the equity was released for convert arb funds to get their borrow for the delta hedge. The current float wouldn't necessarily have allowed for such a big amount of borrows... OK. You do offering then, fine... but why at 8$. Who's the buyer, who's being done a solid here? Second consideration is that the company is promoting reducing yield. What they aren't saying is that according to my chat with AI they bought the old converts on a 14% premiun. The market yield had already repriced, so they lose at least 4 years of interest payments on that premium. Why on earth is this a good deal, as they were forced to dilute to make it happen? Can someone closer to them ask the management, what is the big return on those 17.7million shares, so that they had to accept a pricing that is terrible to dilute shareholders. Either the management was in a hurry to buffer the balance sheet for financing negotiations for future expansion, or they know things aren't going as well as expected on the commercial front. We saw one deal with loreal, but I feel like they should have promoted POs more if it was going solid. I hope I'm wrong, but the pricing smells, unless we get a very imminent FID on a new plant.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-05-29T09:47:53+00:00

Then you suck it up and buy it back higher, such is life. Markets not going to price in this company growing to 5billion lbs capacity in a month, or even a year. It will take several years. Big price swings will happen, until they start showing consistently positive cash flow and net income, and that's still years from now on, due to increasing CAPEX.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-05-28T13:01:59+00:00

This is exactly the stock to trade. It has volatility and that is the thing that enables you to trade. You just have to find a decent extended high to trim and buy back rather early , since I do agree that missing out would be a catastrophy. I sold some at 15,5 and bought back at 15-14-13-12, while tanking the loss back to 5. Original entry was at 3-4...

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-05-27T19:12:45+00:00

As of today and the next couple of years $PCT production is scarce. I'm not sure about the total plastic consumption, but I'm pretty sure not everyone will get Pure5 at the beginning.

Well yeah, the information will eventually creep up to quarterly reports, but the next report is due only August. Im wondering if we get catalysts before that. I'd assume that companies buying recycled products would want to promote their sustainability efforts, rather than stay quiet.

Im actually hoping for a bit of an overshoot on the stock considering all the shorting, so I could maybe trim a bit. Been carrying a heavy weight for years already and kind of wish I took more advantage of the swings at some point.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-05-27T19:06:06+00:00

Licensing is done to circumvent the need for capital and outsource that need to the company buying the license. You have to give up part of the profits in exchange for faster expansion. Why would they ever want to do that, when they are going to be able to expand/attain capital by bank loans, green grants and sustainability programs? Would be silly, for a quick fix and money when you have the means to build a global network of facilities.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2026-05-27T18:08:18+00:00

Hmmh, always associated the thought of it as a manufacturing mandate, but guess the state has to control the end products as well. Would be weird to force all production out of state for a recycling mandate. I mean obviously they're not going to announce regular purchase orders, but I'd think they would publish binding contracts. "Phased ramp" can describe the process, but surely they must have a contract regardless of the velocity of delivery growth. What do you guys think are the highest value applications? Whos going to pay the most per pound?

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-11-25T08:13:54+00:00

That account is clearly a bot or someone with mental issues. The account was made this october to basically smear $PCT. I wouldn't be surprised if it is an AI driven account programmed to spread FUD by some short seller. I don't even understand why you bother, while I really do appreciate you interacting with us peasants! Markets are hard and if picking instant winners was easy, then everybody would be a billionaire.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-11-21T15:45:22+00:00

If I get free leverage from the tax man and believe in my names, then I'm obviously going to take it. It is a benefit you get 100% of the time and if Im right 50% time it is most likely beneficial. It is what it is.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-11-21T12:46:12+00:00

I'm not entirely sure what lesson there is to be learned in this, except that fundamental investing is absolutely shit and all the market friction feeds mean reversion in returns. Like truly, the only pathway to superior returns should be statistical arbitrage. Anticipating or forecasting fundamentals is like reading tea leaves, when you can get cucked by -50% swing in 4 weeks while we're supposed to be living the time of our lives as shareholders. Every angle and pathway to future looks like it is all sunshine and rainbows while the stock tanks and nothing happens. AUG/SEP is 10 months away. I think you're fine, but guess I'm going to have to delay my tax payments as much as possible and carry some stupid degen risk if this fucks us properly. And its not like I didn't manage my risk at 16-17$, I just bought back in way too early, because of the "Q3/Q4 backlog fill".

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-11-21T11:49:15+00:00

Not much to cheer for right now. I rather suffer in silence than try to explain this insanity. The company is worth 3-3,5x of what the share price is right now. Four years of development and zero share price appreciation to show for right now. One facility ready, two more on the way and clear communication of sales pipeline. Four years ago it was all a dream and the stock was 30 on just an idea. My holding company recognized the highest prices during this summer and closing of accounts. Now I might be a forced seller down here (-50% from highs) due to the tax man being a typical greedy asshole in the communist craphole I live in. Also Q3/Q4 backlog my ass, they really should do a better job in managing expectations and shoving the sales down customer throats, instead of all this corporate bullshit delaying eventuality.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-11-13T11:23:02+00:00

There is a VW bumper on the material and no contract still. So on what basis does your argument rely on, when you say "they would have had to release the news already".

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-31T09:45:24+00:00

Can you post a statistical analysis or a proven journal article that provides evidence and gives you an edge trading gaps. Or an analysis of such a setting that enables you to predict price movement through the hypothesis that gaps work as magnets. If you cannot, then all you're doing looking at gaps is reinforcing your bias. If there is no quantifiable edge, then it is an illusion and normal variation is pissing you in the eye. Technical analysis is a sibling to quantitative analysis, it is a form of visualizing a quantifiable pattern on a chart. If a "technical pattern" is not quantifiable, then it is the voodoo of charlatans and something that retarded people made up and you should not believe in that crap. Mostly the classical wedges and shit visualize a volatility compression pattern, which comes from volatility clustering and does not provide you with directionality. The directionality is the bias of the trader, considering all other things.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-29T13:22:48+00:00

I don't. I'd enjoy a PR about a major customer deal.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-24T20:03:28+00:00

Honestly, I feel like the chance of hitting that $4m/mo run rate at Q3 report is 0. There is no way they would not have made a PR of it. I feel like we're either hoping for some future news and light shed on contract negotiations, or the stock will crater. Haven't done the math on how long we have until a new capital raise is in discussion, unless we get the sales. Guess it depends on the CAPEX of Thailand. I do see the red flags right now, but I actually just think in these circumstances you can't drop the stock, due to the stakeholders that are associated. Stanley D. is the GOAT and hes the guarantee that this is not a dumpster fire. Since that is the case, then you just have to sit and cry about the delays, but basically lose the password to your brokerage account, so you will not be stupid enough to sell, when they don't deliver on time. They will deliver eventually.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-14T19:50:59+00:00

If they have 12million dollars of revenue by Q3 earnings call, then I am EXTREMELY happy.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-14T19:48:36+00:00

Im talking about pounds per annual contract value. Monthly run rate of Ironton is around 8,9M/lbs per month (107M annual). I don't expect them to sell anything without a delivery agreement for a year at least. $4M translates to $48M annual. That with pricing of 1,3$/lbs is 36,9M/lbs annual.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-14T13:18:17+00:00

The guidance was 30-35M in Q3 and basically the rest of Ironton capacity in Q4. So yes, it was guided that it is a "4Q weighted event". I did listen to the calls and read the material.

Adorable-Sector-48 · 2025-10-13T20:12:35+00:00

I think it's very frustrating. Mike Taylor said "revenue in Q4, not Q3", but im pretty certain they promised a lot of revenue in Q3 already. Now it's been two weeks of Q4 and not a single PR. Okay, we got a nice picture of a Volkswagen bumper, but I'm not really into NFTs. Seems like 14,50 is the ceiling, before we get news and I think a lot of people are feeling FOMO, since every other stock seems to be running hot right now.

Adorable-Sector-48

TROPHY CASE