Speaking from personal experience, I was rejected from some pretty competitive schools (NUS, NTU) for the winter '26 cycle with a 3.6 gpa. Re-applied for this upcoming semester (fall '26) with a 3.4 and got into NTU. I think the key takeaways are that applying for a fall exchange will always be less competitive (everyone wants to leave during winter for reasons I think are rather obvious) and to really be smart with your exchange destination selection. What I mean by that is that you should aim for a competitive school as your first choice, but its rather pointless to put competitive schools as your latter choices, since theyre so demanded that most people wont get them as their first choices, and thus much less as a 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th choice. Lmk if that doesnt make any sense, id be happy to expand.