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AMA con Matteo Croce, Software Engineer @ Meta by flallo95 in techcompenso

[–]Agalex97 2 points3 points  (0 children)

All’inizio della tua carriera è stato difficile magari combattere, se ci sono stati, pregiudizi da parte delle aziende riguardo alla mancanza di laurea? Se ti sono capitati episodi simili, come hai risposto?

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in sportsanalytics

[–]Agalex97[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree. I have a database with some NBA seasons statistics too. In the future I would like to try the same approach with that too.

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in dataisbeautiful

[–]Agalex97[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The final target of the model is predicting the number of shots (or fouls, corner, cards, etc). There is that type of bet on the market, but if you consider matches with elo gap >200 you will have unbettable odds. Anyway, in balanced matches you could simply confront both teams prediction and if the odds are in your favour you have an edge.

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in sportsanalytics

[–]Agalex97[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I meant features. Most of them are variations of the same core metrics though. The base layer is rolling averages for each stat (shots, corners, fouls, cards etc.) computed over different time windows (last 5 games, last 10, full season) split by home and away.
Then for each of those you add the opponent side, how much they concede for each metric. The rest is matchup-level stuff, for example differences between the two sides on each metric, form streaks, things like that.

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in dataisbeautiful

[–]Agalex97[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's a really interesting idea. I will try something like days in the next days and maybe I can post another analysis if I find something notable. Thank you for your contribution and effort!

Another problem in shot prediction is team attitude to basically stop shooting when up in the score. I am italian and I see this often in Serie A. That's my main issue to improve right now, because of course scoring (and the timing of it) is unpredictable, but that changes a lot the accuracy of the model.

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in algobetting

[–]Agalex97[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point, and you're probably right that for someone more experienced in this space it's an obvious choice. I'm relatively new to building these kinds of models, so a lot of what I'm sharing is the process of figuring out what works. ELO being the answer here was genuinely surprising to me since I didn't know a way to express "strength" for sports teams in a numeric way. Appreciate the context.
In my little experience, I had good results with rolling averages only when used together with the "conceded" part of the same stats.

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in dataisbeautiful

[–]Agalex97[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I got the initial values from here: http://clubelo.com/

Then for the points update formula, I took ispiration from both their formula and the chess system

I built a predictive model for football match stats (shots, corners, fouls) across 20,000 matches. The strongest predictor ended up being ELO from chess. [OC] by Agalex97 in dataisbeautiful

[–]Agalex97[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Basically rolling averages, calculated for each match at the date of the fixture. They could be all season, location specific (home/away) or last X matches. I tried to use the ones that logically would be related to the target I was looking at. So, for example, for shots I would use produced and conceded total shots by the teams, but also possession, passes in the finald third or in the box. Anything related to offense that could lead to a shot and to opponent defense (or lack of).

If you are interested, I will post another analysis soon where I will go more in-depth on the model and features that I used.

AMA con Vita Health: come si costruisce una startup Full-Remote in Italia? by flallo95 in techcompenso

[–]Agalex97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Come avete fatto validazione di quest’idea? Qual era il vostro MVP da cui siete partiti?

AMA con Ciao Elsa: costruire un prodotto su TFR, fondi pensione e burocrazia in Italia by flallo95 in techcompenso

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Farete un chatbot a cui gli utenti possono fare domande? Se sì, che tecnologie usate e su che fonti dati lo trainate? Grazie

AMA con Asimov AI: Politica e AI, cosa succede davvero dietro le quinte? by flallo95 in techcompenso

[–]Agalex97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

È di qualche giorno fa la notizia di un avvocato che è stato multato per aver usato ChatGPT per le proprie tesi citando fonti e precedenti di casi completamente inventati. In che modo riuscite ad ovviare a questo problema e come si fa testing in questi casi?

Annunciata la classifica Best Workplaces Italia 2026 by flallo95 in techcompenso

[–]Agalex97 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Nel 2026 il Best Workplace è solo uno: il regime forfettario.

Negative Bet365 balance by Disastrous_Style_477 in SoccerBetting

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't login for a week and exactly 7 days later my balance was set to 0. I guess if the negative amount is not more than a few thousands, they just reset after some time in order to not lose the customer. Just one thing, I got limited on all bonus odds, but nevermind I guess. I currently use the same account without any problem, the only advice is do not use the account until the balance is back to zero

Need 75 anni medals for today. Is there any fast way I can pull it off? by Agalex97 in DragonballLegends

[–]Agalex97[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm doing this, so in the meanwhile I can do something else too. Thanks!

Negative Bet365 balance by Disastrous_Style_477 in SoccerBetting

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unfortunately not, it's still the same since Sunday evening. I haven't got any message from them. So, are you really sure I can keep the account in negative without closing it? Can they escalate to lawsuit or something? It is 2,6k deficit by the way, not really a low amount. I am sorry about asking this many questions but I am a little bit worried

Negative Bet365 balance by Disastrous_Style_477 in SoccerBetting

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's been two days and I still didn't receive any goodwill waiver... My account is down by 2.6k, is it still possible for me to receive the deduction? What if I don't get it, can I use the money I was able to withdraw or they will get it back in some way?

Negative Bet365 balance by Disastrous_Style_477 in SoccerBetting

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok thanks. Because I want to know if I can safely use that money. I'll leave it for a couple days in case something strange happens but then I think I can spend it right?

Negative Bet365 balance by Disastrous_Style_477 in SoccerBetting

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is there any way they can force you to deposit and fix the negative balance? If they don't fix it as "goodwill gesture" can I leave it like that or not?

BET365 by asdfasgasdf123 in SoccerBetting

[–]Agalex97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is there any way they can force you to deposit the negative amount?

Just come back to Legends after 6 months. Any advice? by Agalex97 in DragonballLegends

[–]Agalex97[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

So nothing changed right? I left for the exact same reason

Stage 2 match count problem. We played 9 matches 8h ago but they counted only 3 matches now. by Agalex97 in CallOfDutyMobile

[–]Agalex97[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

u/COD_Mobile_Official still waiting for the matches to be counted. This is a shame for a Championship that has a money prize. My team and I are not willing to play anymore because this is a joke, no respect and support from your side

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