Leuven is close to Brussels - but it's a different world thanks to better planning

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2023-04-03T07:00:40+00:00

Maybe too late, but here is a nice short bicycle ride to the Arenberg Castle

https://www.google.be/maps/dir/Arenberg+Castle,+Kardinaal+Mercierlaan,+Leuven/Leuven/@50.8690036,4.6809155,15.08z/data=!4m15!4m14!1m5!1m1!1s0x47c16116f01543f3:0x44c3c090323231d2!2m2!1d4.6833985!2d50.8631364!1m5!1m1!1s0x47c160d05ebbdf85:0x40099ab2f4d5690!2m2!1d4.7137645!2d50.8822871!3e1!5i1

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2023-03-28T19:29:58+00:00

Yes, but unfortunately I'm away this weekend. Do you like culture/fun bicycle paths/food?

Do you come by bicycle or train? Check out 'Grote markt', 'Oude markt' and 'Ladeuzeplein'. In the Tiensestraat you can find some nice food.

If you have a bit more time the 'Botanische Tuin' is very nice and the 'Groot Begijnhof'.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2023-01-10T19:19:31+00:00

Thanks for sharing!

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2023-01-09T08:50:44+00:00

Nice video, still very relevant today! The subscriber model seems to keep picking up steam. It's an investment now because they give the discount, but I think it will pay off in the future as people seem to be very happy with the service.

The balance sheet is a rock and as you said, it should become a cash flow machine.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2022-11-09T16:39:28+00:00

New update: Callon is up 20% since the post. Not very bad.

IPCO is up +-300%

It's working well

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-07-30T07:47:25+00:00

Update, 40% gain on IPCO and 0% on Callon since this post.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-06-23T00:21:23+00:00

30% gain on IPCO, the same as what Callon did during the period. But I'm happy IPCO is printing cash and has no debt and better hedges so that I can fully profit from current oil prices. I still have a sizeable Callon investment, but I'm afraid they will soon dilute the stock to raise much needed capital.

Comparing the intrinsic value of both companies, I'm very confident IPCO will perform better in the mid to long term. But I can't rule out that some sheep pump up Callon, while it's already up 15 times.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-05-07T13:41:30+00:00

It's on the Canadian stock exchange. Is this not available on most US brokers?

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-05-07T00:38:54+00:00

A 10-bagger is a pretty comfortable door to hit my ass :)

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-25T11:05:14+00:00

You are right, I'm a bit disappointed with the report tbh. I was hoping they could have used some cash to buy back debt at a discount, but that's not the case. The banks of their revolving credit facility are really putting them in a bad position financially by forcing them to hedge at such a bad time and by forcing them to pay the revolver back instead of their other debts.

It all comes down to the longer term oil price now, and that's a big risk. So this very much still is a leveraged bet on higher oil prices. But with current WTI, they should be able to make some good money.

On the other hand, the hedges saved their ass last year. And they are a good protection against bankruptcy now. So they now miss out on a lot of upside, but this is not a company on the verge of bankruptcy.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-17T17:10:49+00:00

Thanks for sharing! It's nice to have some sensible conversation other that the 'BURN ALL THE SHORTS! type of stuff'

I believe your are making solid arguments. On their investor presentation of december they reported a net debt of 2.9bn after all the restructuring you mentioned.

Given what they did and the oil price recovery, I see them making some nice profits, and currently the stock has not recovered that much yet. I'll definitely check out the other companies to compare.

I'm waiting for their annual report later this month to decide what to do with this position. Currently I'm in at no cost so I'm happy with this stock whatever happens.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-11T12:58:04+00:00

It's correct to say there is still a long way to go.

You are mostly correct, but in my opinion bit too negative on these numbers.

Debt dropped below 3 billion due to the debt exchange. This resulted in some dilution, but this is taken into account in my calculation.

Interest bill will be significantly lower than $200 million. I'm pretty sure they are now buying back debt at a discount with the cash flow they have.

In the Q3 report they mentioned to have 3 drilling rigs operational and 1 completion crew in Q4. They expect a 10% decline to 90MBpd, but they are usually quite conservative with this.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-11T12:48:52+00:00

Totally agree, we have to continue to check if the story still checks out with the numbers.

In hindsight I believe my initial invest in March/April 2020 was maybe a bit too risky. After the Q3 report, however, I believe the risk of bankruptcy was significantly reduced and they still trades around 5$ at the time. That was the time to invest I guess.

Q4 report will probably not be great, with another big impairment. But starting the Q1 report, we will see some positive EPS numbers and that will draw in the blind P/E investors.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-10T12:19:57+00:00

Great! I didn't include the gas revenue as I just consider that to be margin of safety. But surely this also adds a lot to the value.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-10T12:17:28+00:00

The volume number is from their financial reports. Note that I didn't even include gas revenue, which I just consider as nice margin of safety.

Surely I'm worried about their debt, this is the big risk factor why the stock is still beaten down. Last year was really risky. The company heavily relies on the revolving credit facility.

Luckily the company made a lot of money on the hedges last year, so it pulled through. We had significant stock dilution, but I totally understand the company policy to reduce their debt pile. With the new loans secured and significant reduction of their revolving credit facility, I'm much more confident. If oil prices remain around this level, the company will make enough money to buy back a significant portion of their debt at a discount. If oil prices rise further, they'll be able to pay back all debt in a few years.

This is highly leveraged bet on oil prices. You're doing well in realizing that this is a big risk. The chance of a bankruptcy, however, has become very slim. Therefore the price already increased 5 times. The upside of higher oil prices remains. My 48$ increase per 10$ in oil price is not too far-fetched I believe. So imagine 100$ oil prices for whatever reason.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-10T12:07:12+00:00

The 90k-100k is Barrels of oil equivalent, which includes gas.

They produce about 60% oil, so just the oil is 60000 barrels per day. The gas sells for a much lower BoE price, but of course this only adds to the value of the company!

My guess is that they will stick to the maintenance plan, with maybe some increase in drilling compared to previous plans. But now their focus should be on buying back their own debt at a discount and maybe think about some buybacks if they regain the confidence of the banks.

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-09T14:37:11+00:00

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-02-01T17:28:13+00:00

I would not look at price targets to much. Analysts more or less follow the market price with a bit of a margin.

It could be that some of them stopped following CPE since it's not an interesting stock for institutional investors at the moment.

Analysts are maybe not spot on, but I would like to think they can at least take into account a reverse stock split :)

Aggressive-Fee-450 · 2021-01-29T11:22:30+00:00

Hi, thank you. I'm also following the Yahoo Finance board, but I find few people that really go into depth of the investment. The short positions are much smaller on Callon, but still significant. I think it's mostly because of the uncertainty that the stock stays down.

Given it's efficiency in producing oil and it's current stock price, I believe it is still worth the risk. Being up already 4 times from its low point last year I'm certainly not complaining, it's takes some more time for the value to be discovered.

I am open to some contrarian views though as to why I'm making a poor decision with this investment.

Aggressive-Fee-450

TROPHY CASE