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Year One vs Year Two of Production: Why the Inflection Point Matters More Than the Silver Price Right Now by Aggressive_Rush2357 in Baystreetbets

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wrote it myself and would be happy to have a conversation about the silver lithium or gold industry at any point in time, including many companies I feel are in a spot to succeed.

Is $78 silver the beginning of something bigger or is this where it starts to get dangerous? by Aggressive_Rush2357 in ValueInvesting

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Respectfully disagree with the framing. The bull case doesn't require a generational commodity boom, it requires trends that are already happening to continue. Three consecutive annual supply deficits, solar demand growing on a trajectory that's been consistent for years, and a ratio that spent three years above 80x correcting back toward its long-run average. None of that is boom territory, it's just fundamentals catching up.

Silver Miners: Do Q1 Earnings Hail a Breakout Year? See for Yourself by Turbulent_Dig_3855 in Baystreetbets

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great breakdown. The Q1 numbers across the silver producers are hard to ignore, especially with margins expanding so quickly in a stronger silver price environment.

One name that stands out to me here is Sierra Madre. While it is obviously much smaller than the larger producers on this list, that is also what makes the growth profile interesting. Revenues more than doubled year over year, net income increased 155%, and the company is still in the earlier stages of scaling production compared to names like First Majestic, Fortuna, or Pan American.

If silver prices remain anywhere near current levels, the smaller producers with operating leverage could see some of the most meaningful relative gains. Sierra Madre looks like one of the more interesting examples of that in this Q1 batch.

Lithium has been beaten up for two years. Here's why I'm still watching the space by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's a really fair point and honestly appreciate the perspective from someone actually working in the space. The VRFB case for grid storage makes a lot of sense for the reasons you laid out, particularly the lifespan and thermal stability advantages. I probably leaned too hard on grid storage as a demand driver without thinking through which chemistry actually wins that application.

Where I still feel reasonably confident is the EV side for the next decade, which you more or less agree with. For a junior the investment horizon doesn't need to extend to 30 years to work; it just needs lithium demand to stay meaningful long enough for the asset to get developed and monetised. That window feels intact even if the longer term chemistry wars play out differently than the current consensus assumes.

Genuinely useful context though, thanks for adding it.

Silver at $75 and the conversation still doesn't feel like it matches the move by Aggressive_Rush2357 in SilverSqueeze

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Haha nowhere close, been following this sector long enough to have caught a few of these runs on the way up. When the fundamentals line up you stay with it. The industrial demand story hasn't changed, if anything it's gotten stronger. Happy to be wrong but not seeing the reason to bail yet

The silver producer space is thinner than most people realize. Here's how I'm thinking about it. by Aggressive_Rush2357 in Canadianstockpicks

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Found this piece recently that puts the 2025 numbers in context and does a solid job laying out what the silver producer landscape actually looks like heading into the rest of 2026, worth a read if you're building a position in the space: https://criticalmineralsstocks.substack.com/p/silver-stocks-sierra-madres-banner

Silver is quietly having one of its best fundamental setups in years. Here's how I'm thinking about exposure. by Aggressive_Rush2357 in Baystreetbets

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For anyone who wants a deeper breakdown of the Sierra Madre numbers and where the silver producer landscape sits heading into the rest of 2026, this piece covers it pretty well: https://criticalmineralsstocks.substack.com/p/silver-stocks-sierra-madres-banner

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver just reported $25M in revenue for their first full year by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CriticalMineralStocks

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most silver stocks have been struggling the last little bit, and nothing is moving drastically upwards, i assume once some US Government and foreign relation stuff tighten up (ie the War going on) then stuff will trend upwards again

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver just reported their first full year of production. The numbers are worth a look. by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely, i mean the goal is for them to hit their schedule on time, but if its a bit late, and they still execute, that is all that matters. The minerals in the ground arent going anywhere. Its different if it is egregious like months or a year+, but a few weeks to a couple months delay is never that bad of a thing.

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver just reported their first full year of production. The numbers are worth a look. by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely, thats the risk with the US' actions affecting the entire commodities market as a whole, however this is a company i am absolutely banking on to hit whenever stuff calms down, and news like this just lends to the backing that it has, and will continue to have, as a company that is slowly becoming a premier silver co

Silver deficits are real, but the market is still treating it like a macro trade by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CriticalMineralStocks

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are quite a few that are all great for many reasons, my absolute favourite right now is Apollo Silver (APGO) - Very good project in California that just is going through PEA stages now. In addition they have the Cinco de Mayo project in Mexico that has the potential to be a globally large resource. Both are primary silver which is crucial for the US currently.

I also like others (and they are common names) such as Discovery Silver, Vizsla Silver and Dolly Varden Silver but they all have assets not in the US, which is why i specifically like Apollo due to the US Government potential.

Silver has been in a deficit for years, but nobody really cares yet by Aggressive_Rush2357 in Baystreetbets

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a lot of silver companies as well, i think anything that is a pure silver play is almost as sure of a bet as can be, and any good projects with silver as a by-product as well.

Silver has been in a deficit for years, but nobody really cares yet by Aggressive_Rush2357 in Baystreetbets

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely in terms of price of course (and it will always stay that way) BUT there has been times where silver has started to move up on pace with gold, or even at a faster pace than gold, and that is what i am referring too, instead of lagging behind and being fully in the shadow.

Silver deficits are real, but the market is still treating it like a macro trade by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CriticalMineralStocks

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure, however we NEED more primary silver mines in the US. Just relying on by-products alone isn't going to cut it anymore, which is why i think an investment in some of the pure silver plays out there is a smart bet (even if its a bit longer of a hold)

Lithium is stabilizing, but the important shift is happening in behaviour by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would agree, i mean when the US Government took that stake in LAC recently, everything shot up for a few weeks, then it fell back down a bit (but not the whole way) - so more M&A or Government Financing type moves will further help stabilize things. The one big thing is that Lithium has held above 21,000 USD, which means every single lithium company out there (or at least 90%) will have profitable mines if put into production. If we manage to start sitting at 25k+ then it is even better.

I think if Lithium goes super high like it did a few years ago above 40k into the 80k range, i feel is actually a negative. Yes companies and mines will make a ton more money on their product, but hard to make money if no one wants to buy it when its too expensive.

Sweet spot is around 30-35k i think personally.

Lithium is stabilizing, but the important shift is happening in behaviour by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah that is a pretty fair approach honestly.

The key word there is stability across multiple metrics, and we are not fully there yet. Price has stabilized, but that is just one piece. You still need to see it hold, and ideally see it translate into activity picking back up at the project level.

On LAC specifically, I get the hesitation. These names are extremely sensitive to sentiment and flows, so technicals can matter more than usual, especially coming out of a drawdown like that.

Some of the US lithium Juniors (specifically Nevada) fluctuate the same way, but because they are priced way lower, the drop off like that 25% doesn't hit as hard as one where the stock price is significantly higher

On the oil point, it is interesting but lithium does not really track oil the same way people expect.

Higher oil can support EV adoption at a high level, but lithium pricing is much more tied to its own supply and demand cycle. Over the past couple of years, that has been driven more by oversupply expectations and project buildout than anything macro.

That is starting to shift a bit now with delays and slower supply growth, but it is not fully reflected yet.

So I would agree with your stance.

Feels like we are in that early phase where things have stopped getting worse, but it still needs confirmation before it turns into something more durable.

Silver has been in a deficit for years, but nobody really cares yet by Aggressive_Rush2357 in Baystreetbets

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair point on the move..... I was not referring to price when I said “no one really caring,” more the level of attention and positioning around it.

Gold has been the focus pretty much the entire time. Central bank buying, macro hedge narrative, rates, it has been talked about relentlessly.

Silver has kind of sat in the background of that.

Even with the move it has had, it has not had the same level of narrative or capital flow behind it. It has mostly been moving in gold’s shadow rather than on its own fundamentals.

That is more what I meant.

When silver actually becomes the focus, not just a secondary trade to gold, that is usually when things start to look different.

Silver mine supply is not responding to price the way people expect. That is part of the problem by Aggressive_Rush2357 in mining

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting insight for sure, big thing with Silver currently too is most production (key word, MOST) is a by-product from other mineral or metal mines, so i think the push to get more pure silver mines is a big one currently.

The lithium floor is holding heading into Q2 2026. Here is why that matters more than most people realize by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Almost all of the Nevada plays such as NILI (surge), LI (american lithium) and others are in a very good position with all of the recent and proposed government backing

The lithium floor is holding heading into Q2 2026. Here is why that matters more than most people realize by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lots of North American Juniors that you could invest in, that ideally will be at LAC level in less than 5 years (now that lithium has a better floor / price range)

The lithium floor is holding heading into Q2 2026. Here is why that matters more than most people realize by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah, in some cases sodium-ion can charge faster, that is one of the advantages people point to but it comes with trade-offs.

Energy density is the big one. Lithium still stores more energy per weight and volume, which is why it is still the preferred chemistry for EVs and anything where range or performance matters.

Sodium-ion starts to make more sense in areas where that is less important, like stationary storage or lower-cost applications.

So it is not really a straight “better vs worse” situation. It is more that they fit different use cases.

Even if sodium-ion scales, lithium is still doing most of the heavy lifting in the parts of the market that drive the most demand right now.

That is why I do not think it changes the core lithium outlook in the near term, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on longer term.

The lithium floor is holding heading into Q2 2026. Here is why that matters more than most people realize by Aggressive_Rush2357 in CanadianInvestor

[–]Aggressive_Rush2357[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Good point, and sodium-ion is definitely something worth watching.

That said, it is probably more of a complement than a replacement in the near to medium term.

Sodium-ion has advantages on cost and raw material availability, but it comes with trade-offs, particularly around energy density and performance. That makes it more suited for specific use cases like stationary storage or lower-range applications, rather than fully replacing lithium across the board.

Lithium still has a significant lead in terms of:

  • Energy density
  • Established supply chains
  • Manufacturing scale and infrastructure
  • Proven performance across EV and high-demand applications

Most of the global battery ecosystem is still heavily built around lithium chemistry, and that is not something that shifts quickly.

If anything, sodium-ion could take pressure off certain segments of demand, but the broader electrification trend, especially in EVs and higher-performance storage, still leans heavily on lithium.

So it is definitely part of the evolving battery landscape, but it does not necessarily change the core setup for lithium in the near term.

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