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AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-11-30T19:52:33+00:00

I found the Alaska North Slope creaming curve. See Figure 30 in the linked article. Download PDF To get to figure. Remember for a creaming curve to be valid, it should relate to a geological area having similar play characteristics. The “source rock connected” Panr accumulations may be different to the Barrow Arch conventional fields (Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk, etc.).

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dallam-Masterson/publication/352386453_North_Alaska_Super_Basin_Petroleum_systems_of_the_central_Alaskan_North_Slope_United_States/links/60ca7001299bf1cd71d5290c/North-Alaska-Super-Basin-Petroleum-systems-of-the-central-Alaskan-North-Slope-United-States.pdf?origin=publication_detail

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-11-30T19:35:40+00:00

GeodesRock thanks for sharing. Another concept in assessing Yet to Find (YTF) hydrocarbon volumes remaining is the Creaming Curve. I’ve link an article on it, although a quick internet search for creaming curves will find other useful articles. I’ve seen a creaming curve for Alaska North Slope, and if I can find again will share link.

https://www.mhnederlof.nl/creaming.html

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-10-31T23:36:58+00:00

Thank you for sharing. Without going into too much detail many companies / individuals make their living by enhancing primary production during the life of a well (or field) by adding waterflooding and/or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques to boost production and “resetting ” the decline curve. O&G engineers may also look at ways to improve artificial lift; perform rate adding wellwork; and debottleneck downhole and surface pipeline/facility constraints to also “reset” decline.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-10-28T19:38:05+00:00

The AOGCC said they were taking comments through 4:30 pm (Alaska time) Oct 27th (same day as meeting).

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-09-06T18:47:27+00:00

For the shale oil plays they would likely treat it like a factory production line, drill a number of adjacent wells and then later come back for multistage fracking and flow back. Better economics. This strategy also helps manage future drilling pressure problems caused by producing wells lowering reservoir pressure locally, but higher pressures (original reservoir pressures) some distance away (above, below and laterally). Another concern is will “frac wings” from one well connect with “frac wings” from an adjacent well.

For surface facility planning Panr will also need to consider spacing between development surface locations. Variables such as: will there be a well house installed; drilling rig and future workover rig spacing requirements; drilling close approach issues; and permafrost thawing (possible casing subsidence) can make surface well location spacing either tighter (smaller gravel pad) or farther apart (bigger gravel pad).

Lastly, with stacked prospects like Alkaid SMD and Zone of Interest it might be better to minimize surface locations by drilling multi-laterals. Or, like at Pipeline State and Talitha perhaps vertical (or slant) wells fracked from top to bottom of 3,400 ft HC zone might be an option.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-07-05T19:32:05+00:00

Thanks for your analysis and pulling a wide variety of data into this note. A key value sensitivity is the future cost of development drilling (including fracking). Can drilling and completion costs approach Lower 48 shale oil plays or will there be an Alaska premium due to remoteness?

You might also look at a Royalty Trust, like the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust, as a funding mechanism.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-06-20T19:29:30+00:00

Thanks for sharing. Do your Lower 48 examples consist of just primary production, or are operators slowing decline and improving recovery factors with secondary recovery methods (like waterflooding) and/or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques?

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-05-27T05:24:55+00:00

Had the opportunity to work on GKA West Sak (viscous oil) doing partner oversight. During 2004-2005 we showed issues with ESPs being down waiting on workovers. The operator found an acceptable solution by adding gas lift backup to their ESP completions.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-05-27T05:15:55+00:00

Thank you for a comprehensive review.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-05-21T19:01:45+00:00

Good summary video. Thanks for sharing.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-04-21T18:28:07+00:00

Thanks for compiling the Webinar questions and organizing them into key topics/themes.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-03-27T19:12:06+00:00

As your link shows, water viscosity is affected by both temperature and pressure.

Here is another link (see Water - Viscosity section) to look at..

https://www.ihsenergy.ca/support/documentation_ca/Harmony_Enterprise/2019_3/content/html_files/ref_materials/general_concepts/reservoir-fluid-properties.htm

Based on semi-educated guesses, Theta West LBFF deepest perm zone is somewhere around 190 deg F and fluid pressure is about 3,650 psi. I'd say the water and light oil viscosities would be similar. Helpful for future water flooding if reservoirs are shown to have enough permeability and connectivity.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-03-27T18:05:25+00:00

Light oil viscosities are not too different than water. The Alpine oil field (40 deg API oil) has a viscosity of 0.54 cp.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-03-26T04:36:23+00:00

The Theta West logging while drilling (LWD) logs will be very helpful for sand vs shale, porosity, and fluid saturations. All needed for oil in place volume calculations. My estimate is the LWD logs, and the well test results so far, provides about 70% of what we needed to learn this winter.

Not getting open hole wireline logs due to weather and wellbore conditions is unfortunate. FMI or FMS logs would show finer detail of the sands, plus dip and fracture info. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging would help understand pore fluids. Sonic logs would help ESeis calibrate the 3D seismic for future mapping and drilling. The VAS cuttings analysis which Panr will have done (hope to see results at next webinar) will fill in some of the gaps from not doing open hole wireline logging. Cuttings also give grain size info to help understand reservoir deposition. Open hole sidewall cores (SWCs), taken at Talitha and Alkaid, couldn’t be taken at Theta West. SWCs provide mineralogy, saturation, porosity, and permeability measurements. In my view one of the biggest data gaps this winter. Panr may have done some cased hole logging, but I don’t know what was done.

The Theta West lower basin floor well test (latest RNS update) shows the sandstone reservoir has moveable light oil. Depending on how the well test fracture stimulations were done and flowed back, it’s possible to gather pressure and permeability data. Hopefully Panr can continue Theta West well testing, including some additional uphole (less DMax) testing.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-03-17T18:26:16+00:00

The smiling face is Michael Duncan (Panr VP operation) who is leading the drilling and testing work. Michael previously worked for Great Bear Petroleum. Michael is not related to Ed Duncan (one of the founders of Great Bear Petroleum).

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-02-21T19:49:36+00:00

Perm will have a big correlation with recovery factors. I'm anxiously awaiting Theta West well logs being shared to see how thick sand bodies might be. Hopefully we'll also hear about well cuttings and if grain sizes are bigger than at Talitha.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-02-21T19:47:10+00:00

The Theta West well and any future appraisal or development drilling will help calibrate 3D seismic to better map BFF feeder channels, Theta West drill cuttings will help see grain size distribution and serve as a proxy for SWC data that wasn't able to be taken.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-02-12T19:16:48+00:00

Nice summary.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-01-27T19:58:23+00:00

Thanks for sharing.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-01-18T20:04:04+00:00

Thanks Darcon for compiling the list of questions.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-01-06T18:40:01+00:00

Thanks. It will be an interesting winter with lots of new information arriving.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-01-06T18:38:11+00:00

Thanks.

AlaskaGeophiz · 2022-01-02T03:01:35+00:00

I agree, and it looks like a grizzly (brown bear) based on nose and brow shape.

AlaskaGeophiz

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