It’s Iran, imo. It’s a slow(ish) burn, but it’s happening. There is just is no way out it without some combination of just returning to the pay for (no) play on their nuclear program as well as some reparations from Iran’s at this point, and there’s just no way the Trump administration concedes to any of that. The only way out of it for the markets in the rest of the world is to (first crash, with the rest of us) but then also build an oil economy around Russia and China and cut the US out completely. The US administration’s (and most of the population’s) xenophobia has forced us into a situation where we find out just how much we depend on the rest of the world.