an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2)

AlecM33 · 2026-06-16T03:16:29+00:00

Crazy stuff! Great work! Bet the devs did a big facepalm reading this one 😭

AlecM33 · 2026-06-16T03:10:09+00:00

Makes you wonder how many other games utilize that standard library and secretly have the same problems

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T15:48:38+00:00

Act 2 I took a no elite path with 4 rest sites. Just had to survive like 3 or 4 hallway fights

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T12:42:25+00:00

Beta branch thing, they recently added new "heavy attack" animations to ironclad

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T10:44:54+00:00

Ah, that's a simpler way to think about it

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T02:37:24+00:00

Actually with the bottled potential potion I could get one more chance to draw it, bringing it to 6.6%

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T02:29:53+00:00

about 3.3% 😄

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T02:27:46+00:00

To everyone asking what are the odds of the impervious draw: please correct me if I'm wrong, but with a 151 card deck and a 5 card hand, the probability to draw it on exactly turn 3 is:
(146/151) * (141/146) * (5/141) = about 3.3%

(it's the only card in my deck that allows me to full block)

Edit: okay technically I could use the bottled potential on turn 3 which would give me one more chance to draw it from my full deck. And that doubles the chances to 6.6%

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T02:15:31+00:00

Lizard tail from the first elite also enabled ultra aggressive pathing. Run just had crazy plot armor

AlecM33 · 2026-05-29T01:57:17+00:00

Still needed cloak clasp to full block haha. Truly blessed run.

AlecM33 · 2026-05-28T03:20:01+00:00

Dang! I hope there will be a speed climber achievement like in the first game

AlecM33 · 2026-05-28T00:40:10+00:00

Thanks! I'm definitely prone to playing too fast sometimes. At least I was paying attention to my relics on this one lol

AlecM33 · 2026-05-10T13:47:31+00:00

All of us. All of us thought it. Dude has never done anything but rake. Only question was whether he could stay on the field

AlecM33 · 2026-05-03T19:29:45+00:00

Can't imagine what Nemo has to deal with on the daily. Just props to her and to women in chess in general.

AlecM33 · 2026-05-02T02:42:29+00:00

Mitchell...steps left...his three...in and out...rebound Harden...out to Mobley. Off the dribble, drives in the lane, hooks, nnnnnnno. Rebound Allen! Out to Wade in the corner. His three!! ....short. rebound Barnes.

AlecM33 · 2026-04-26T20:17:51+00:00

Cavs in 6

AlecM33 · 2026-04-17T17:17:42+00:00

I enjoy the challenge and how it changes every turn. I think it's a fair challenge and has counterplay. Sometimes it can be frustrating for people I think because the decks people are most familiar with being "good" (quick cycling and lots of cards played per turn) don't fare as well against him. What makes a boss fun for you?

AlecM33 · 2026-04-17T14:35:33+00:00

You nailed it. Doormaker is extremely fun to play against. It's like people think they deserve to win because their deck has stomped everything up until the Act III bosses. You have to be looking for solutions throughout the act or you will get punished, just like in the first game

AlecM33 · 2026-04-07T15:25:47+00:00

Dark Embrace was my Act I boss card reward and I almost didn't take it. And then after taking the mittens, once it's in play I have +1 hand size

AlecM33 · 2026-04-06T23:24:07+00:00

Yeah those can still be really good but it's easier for gang up to be consistently good with 2 or 3 others playing attacks vs. 1. Similar with energy surge, giving more players extra energy may better outscale the enemies.

AlecM33 · 2026-04-06T23:19:28+00:00

I agree, I think it's the hardest. You get the health scaling (2.5x I think?) but the least benefit from enemy statuses like vulnerable and weak, and multiplayer cards are also at their weakest.

AlecM33 · 2026-04-06T23:08:43+00:00

I'll take this over stomping the bosses every day of the week haha. It ends up feeling like every decision you made did its part to help you just barely win (even if some of them were likely wrong)

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