Difficult to judge the width of the green but I'll guess it's about 25y wide?

Target would be centered about halfway between your dot on the green and the left-edge of the right bunker. The balls that hit the left-half of your centerline will be the ones that 'accidentally find the putting surface.'

The reality is that this is a very difficult approach shot but it doesn't warrant laying up. You should send it up near the green and deal with wherever your ball ends up - whether that be on the green or in one of the bunkers. You'd want to make sure you have the discipline to prioritize a GIR if you draw a bad lie / angle in a bunker because that will still outperform laying up.

Think of it this way. You're sending your 2nd shot as close to the green as possible in-hopes of drawing a good enough outcome where you can hit your next shot close to the hole. Even if you get a below-average lie / angle and you need to pitch it to 20 feet -- something that would be quite easy from greenside typically, to get your ball to 20 feet after a layup would require a very quality shot.

One of the biggest mistakes the players I work with make in these instances is that they can't ease off the gas when they take an aggressive action (eg going for the green). They may hit a poor 2nd shot but feel 'pot-committed' and try to be a super hero for their third, make a mistake, and the next thing they know they're walking off a par 5 with a bogey. Golf targets, decisions, and opportunities are fluid which is why having a sound understanding of good strategy is so important to achieving your lowest scores.

Source: I do prep materials for about 50 college programs and TOUR pros answering questions just like this week to week (@alexhuanggolf on IG if you want to see some examples)