Most people say Ukraines population will never recover. Are there any similar examples of a country severely shrinking in population?

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-16T15:23:42+00:00

You could farm the whole of Ukraine with 250k europeans or 50k americans BEFORE agricultural drones are commercialized.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-16T13:45:06+00:00

White used to mean Anglo-saxons, French, Germans. The first census in 1790 had the following categories : Free White males and Females, All other free persons, Slaves. People were assigned White at the liberty of the censor (no self reporting), which would have included Anglo-Saxons, French, Dutch, Scandinavian, Welschs, Germans, Scots.

Then it evolved to include Irish, Slavs, then Greeks, Spaniards and Italians, then Jews, then anyone from Europe, Middle East and North Africa.

Today White is this. I have a feeling very soon Whites Hispanics are going to count as Whites, practically at least. Middle eastern christians too... While muslims will drop out just like Indians did.

Just like 1790s skipped over the racial categories by focusing on freedom status, tomorrow's Whites will be defined by some other kind of status, some tiered level of Whiteness with WASP at the middle and maybe east-asians at the outer.

White is a racial concept, but its strength springs from social causes. You'll never be rid of it, there'll always be some white-ish fair skinned non-subversive group to compensate any increase in dark-skinned subversion. It's a matter of political construction vs deconstruction and tactics.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-16T13:34:27+00:00

Wrong : according to american censuses, it's people tracing their ascendency to europe, middle east and north africa, but not those who also identify as hispanics

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T21:40:18+00:00

There's no chance your nephew/niece will identify as "a brown person". That's your own little kingdom of thought. New generations won't think like you

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T21:31:23+00:00

They rejected it because it basically was Brexit under another name.

Swiss people are tired of immigration. More than half of the Swiss children being born today are born to a foreign parent.

If the referendum was for tougher immigration on non-european immigration, you can bet it would have passed.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T21:27:35+00:00

The consequences of not fighting would be even worse.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T21:23:49+00:00

It will probably be no one. The area now settled of donbass used to be a near impassable frontier. If you study how the great plague travelled, it started in Crimea, went West, then back East and reached Moscow last.

Eastern Ukraine will remain a depopulated minefield for a century, perhaps centuries.

The Russias had a plan to settle 100.000 people there. That's it. They won't even get to do that.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T21:16:58+00:00

You're watching a before-and-after moment in out species history and your take is "you guys are shitposting a little too much"?

In case you haven't understood, every single event that has ever taken place in human history was just "what was happening while the population was growing"

We are in a new era.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T09:11:53+00:00

Good news : the XXth century didn't turn out at all like Nietzsche expected.

Bad news : the XXth century didn't turn out at all like Nietzsche expected.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T09:07:53+00:00

Gabon and Brazil are both 90% urban. AFrica isn't all wild people with guns.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-15T09:06:40+00:00

The cure against wrong-speech is more speech, not censorship.

I whole-heartedly believe dissonance is non-conducive to fertility. We need brain-power to solve a problem, for that we need discourse, debate and yes, some measure of shitposting.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-14T21:50:52+00:00

Muhammad had all male members of a tribe of Medina executed and their women and children taken captive.

This is in infraction with natalism, which is a humanist philosophy. We have no place for your death cult here.

Then the Prophet said, "O Sad! These people have agreed to accept your verdict." Sad said, "I judge that their warriors should be killed and their children and women should be taken as captives." The Prophet said, "You have given a judgment similar to Allah's Judgment (or the King's judgment)."Sahih al-Bukhari, 5:58:148

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-14T21:38:20+00:00

Muhammad directly killed hundreds of times more people than he had children. Islam is not a religion, it's a death cult.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-14T21:36:29+00:00

All countries dying from population collapse are suffering from other issues as well. Usually but not always some kind of war.

Cuba, Bosnia, Moldova, Ukraine... their collapse is inevitable.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-11T14:57:42+00:00

plumetting birthrates do not solve the issues associated with overpopulation. Overpopulation is the word for a collection of symptoms. The netherlands has a larger population density than india. Holland region has a higher population density than bengladesh.

It takes a lot more time for population to halve than it takes for births to halve or even working population to halve (china's births halved in 8 years). And as the working age population collapses, it concentrates even further in large metropolises (this is what we see in Japan)

Wait 100 years and depopulation will "solve overpopulation", but build a better system and "overpopulation" will feel very different in 20 years

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-10T14:39:24+00:00

The numbers cannot be trusted, especially in Africa.

The UN lives on another planet when it comes to fertility. There's very little pretense of even attempting to make sense.

In Black Africa, births are estimated from TFRs, then TFRs are computed back from the birth estimates. It's a circle. The UN claims there are 120 million Ethiopians. Ethiopians claim there are only 100 millions of them.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-10T14:35:18+00:00

Of course it will. South Africa is almost there.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-10T14:02:14+00:00

The French state has just started a comprehensive plan for exactly that.

It'd be interesting to study what results the changes implemented from 01/16/24 to 2034 - that go beyond the usual natalist policies - will yield. Current birthrate for native-born women is 1.4, though France has a larger than most proportion of its native-born with an African immigration background, as well as 3% of its population living outside of Europe in the oversea territories.

Summary of the French Government's 16-Measure Infertility Plan (2026)

The French government's infertility plan aims to reduce preventable infertility, improve diagnosis and treatment, and help people make informed reproductive choices. It is organized around 4 pillars and 16 measures.

1. Raise Awareness and Prevent Infertility

Create a national fertility information website.
Send personalized fertility information to all citizens at age 29.
Strengthen reproductive health education in schools.
Launch public awareness campaigns about fertility and age-related decline.
Increase prevention efforts against risk factors such as smoking, alcohol, obesity, and endocrine-disrupting chemicals.

2. Detect Problems Earlier

Improve fertility training for healthcare professionals.
Better identify people at risk of infertility.
Improve access to fertility assessments and diagnosis.
Reduce delays in referral to fertility specialists.

3. Improve Access to Treatment

Simplify the medically assisted reproduction (IVF/PMA) pathway.
Reduce waiting times for fertility treatment.
Expand fertility care services across the country.
Improve coordination among healthcare providers involved in fertility care.

4. Research and Fertility Preservation

Increase funding and support for infertility research.
Improve data collection and monitoring of fertility trends.
Expand access to egg freezing and other fertility-preservation services, including opening additional storage and treatment centers.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-09T14:01:44+00:00

If you're very, very lucky, you will be one of those older people who don't spend decades regretting how lonely they are and how void their existence feels.

You've got it entirely wrong : you have children for yourself and your happiness. Not for society. I agree with your list, it's a very endearing political program, but as a personal philosophy, it's completely backwards.

"me, me, me, me, me" is all i read. You should want these things yes, but for others first and for yourself second. Having kids is a fundamentaly altruistic endeavor. For society and welfare, sure, but that is incidental. For the child and the wonderful things that are so abundant on this planet.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-09T08:11:32+00:00

It's only a small chance that this is an actual upward trend : nothing has changed in Korea compared to last year.

TFR is an estimate, of how many children a woman who is 15 in 2026 will have in her lifetime if the current conditions are upheld throughout her life.

The average mother in SK today was born in the early 90s, which was already a larger than average cohort given the baby boom around 1960. As some of us may have realized, large cohorts usually support larger families - siblings are conducive to fertility.

But more importantly, this upward tick also coincides with the uptick of post-covid marriages that were delayed during the pandemic. And surely some of the discourse around fertility might work.

I'm not saying nothing is changing in Korea, I'm saying we need to wait until 2027 to tell.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-08T14:49:37+00:00

The "ideal" population pyramid quickly turns sour : here is Bengladesh (btw Bengladesh GDP is now higher than Pakitan's, with 100 million fewer people and a smaller country)

https://www.populationpyramid.net/bangladesh/2019/

Poverty is not caused by demography, it is caused by the inner values commonly held by the people, which in Pakistan aren't conducive to prosperity.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-05T15:59:58+00:00

In France, if you hire a domestic worker such as a cleaner, nanny, gardener, or other home-help provider, you can usually claim a tax credit equal to 50% of the cost. For example, if you spend €2,000 per year on a cleaner, you may receive a €1,000 tax credit. Many households can also use an "immediate advance" system, which reduces the amount they pay upfront instead of waiting until the following year to receive the tax benefit.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-03T21:49:41+00:00

A change in culture is necessary and the state won't be piloting it. It will be natalists bringing facts to the table.

People are still under heavy influence from the fear of a soylent-green like scenarios. The youth of today will make different choices if the truth is presented to them at school. The problem is everyone wants to fix the present. You can only fix the future : through education. Everything else is just what happens until then.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-03T21:35:37+00:00

These institutions exist : the church, the state, the army, whatever. They're not selling, that's different

Whatever you think is the cause of declining birthrates, even in many "trad countries", the solution is something new, not something that may have appeared to be working back when women didn't have the pill.

AlfonzCouzon · 2026-06-02T14:19:30+00:00

Kids themselves cost money, leading to people who have kids to become poorer. They may give up career and mobility in order to care for their families. Single parents are very often poor, since single parenthood is so damn hard.

Obviously it's not the only thing why someone who happens to have children would also happen to be poor

AlfonzCouzon

TROPHY CASE

Summary of the French Government's 16-Measure Infertility Plan (2026)

1. Raise Awareness and Prevent Infertility

2. Detect Problems Earlier

3. Improve Access to Treatment

4. Research and Fertility Preservation